Is the Insane Passivity of Edouard Julien Finally on the Wane?

In the Athletic team rankings the Twins are 12th - middle of the road, but the comment that went with the ranking applies to the entire team not just Julien:

"So long as we’re extrapolating tiny samples, let’s consider the Twins as they square off against the Dodgers. Minnesota last year led the AL in homers (yay!) and strikeouts (whoops!). That all-or-nothing approach has been tweaked. Now it’s just nothing. Through their first seven games, the Twins had the fewest homers in the league (three) and the second-highest strikeout rate (26.7 percent). Carlos Correa and Alex Kirilloff are off to strong starts, yet we’re still waiting for a homer from them or Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, or Matt Wallner."

A good hitter fouls off pitches that he doesn't like, he doesn't look at them, especially on 3rd strike. 

I have faith in Julien turning things around. With fewer than two strikes, it's perfectly fine to take a pitch on the corners of the plate because it's unlikely the hitter will be able to do much damage on those pitches. But with two strikes, the hitter needs to try to fight off pitches on the corner to either make contact or foul it off to extend the at-bat. Don't leave the fate of your at-bat to the discretion of the umpire. 

I hope Julien gets tired of all of these called strike threes so that he shifts his two-strike approach. 

It's his sophomore year and he hasn't yet earned the umpire's respect.  Recall that the same thing happened to the Timberwolves Anthony Edwards who is now starting to get the calls.  Umps look at their ratings and review games and will eventually see that EJ has mastered the strike zone.  He is similar to Joe Mauer and Rod Carew but just has not yet "paid his dues".  I disagree with some who say that he should swing at balls outside the zone.  If he holds true to his approach, the umpires will eventually come on board.  If not, then he must wait for the robo umps before being rewarded.

49 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

A good hitter fouls off pitches that he doesn't like, he doesn't look at them, especially on 3rd strike. 

You are absolutely correct on the strike 3 part; borderline pitches cannot be passively watched with 2 strikes.  If there are not 2 strikes, I would much rather Julien simply look at pitches he doesn’t like; worst case it’s a called strike, best case it’s a ball.  If he attempts to foul it off, best case it’s a strike, worst case it’s a soft hit out.  Sure, maybe he’ll run into the odd duck snort or swinging bunt base hit, but that will be rare.  Not offering at pitches he doesn’t like with 0 or 1 strikes is a far preferable approach to attempting to foul them off.

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Wallner and Julien both currently getting master classes in "the league will adjust to you and you need to adjust back or you're going back to AAA." They both seem like very smart hitters who put in a ton of work to fill holes in their games so I'm sure they're both working on adjustments as we speak. But MLB pitchers are really, really good. If you have a hole they will attack it over and over until you fill it.

Correct. And in the case of Julien the adjustment is pretty straightforward. Attack the zone and make him swing or put him in a hole. The only way out of it is to punish the pitchers for filling the zone. If they aren’t afraid of him this is what he will get endlessly. Due to his babip last year I was worried we would see this: enough regression to the mean that pitchers aren’t afraid of him right now. 

47 minutes ago, Parker Hageman said:

Was going to do a short blurb on this topic but Matthew covers it well. 

The main reason for his passivity is that teams are targeting the lower third of the strike zone on him:

If you go back to the Caretakers post I did at the end of spring training, Julien told me that he's basically spitting on pitches that are down, regardless of if they are in the zone or not. You can read that conversation here 👇

You can see here his 2024 swing rate:

When you combine where teams are pitching him and where he's swinging, he's getting himself behind in the count and also rung up on pitches down in the zone. 

He's at a point where he likely needs to make a decision about whether he tries to swing at more pitches down in the zone or delivers on pitches up in the zone more often. 

 

 

Where's the hitting coach.? Isn't it their charge to correct or change hitting approaches where obviously needed?

This team is really boring to watch on offense. It’s getting frustrating watching the hitters argue balls and strikes as if the game is against the twins strike zone and the ump.

perhaps someone should remind the batters that they are playing these guys in the other dugout, not the umps.

Great article.  It certainly explains Julien.  What explains the rest of the players malaise?  Correa and Kiriloff seem to be about the only offense on the team.  So what theories explain each of the other players?  Maybe they just aren't as good as all the hype?

11 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Joey Votto hits. If you're lucky, *you* hit Joey Lotto.

I was thinking Joey Gallo as it seemed to be a lotto type thing if he hit 

1 hour ago, Parker Hageman said:

I think most hitters in today's era will tell you that it's not that simple. 

Even Joey VOTTO says that earlier in his career he was able to do it more when pitchers used to front hip sinker left-handed hitters with high 80s/low 90s pitches, but that attack method has gone away with more velocity and spin.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/28/sports/baseball/foul-balls.html

Plus, it's not really a sustainable skill among hitters. Even Luis Arraez's 2-strike foul rate fluctuates 3-4% each year and this year it's up and he's also got his highest 2-strike swing-and-miss rate of his career (13%). 

I guess I'm old school (I hate SOs) & I haven't come close to face what hitters have to face now. So nowadays with the pitchers they have now that hitters are at a great disadvantage & are at the whim of the pitcher & the umpire to call a good game (more reason to have robo umps). You're lucky if you get a hit.

IMO it's easier not to SO when you shorten your swing than putting on your HR swing, especially with 2 strikes. It's hard for me to imagine not to be defensive at the plate, especially with 2 strikes.

This sentence may be the best thing I've read on this site in quite a while:

Quote

 

Selectivity is, in part, the privilege of those who make a lot of contact.

 

To reverse the scenario, I also think of it every time Buxton is 0-2 and has to chase a borderline pitch, inevitably striking out.

5 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Great article.  It certainly explains Julien.  What explains the rest of the players malaise?  Correa and Kiriloff seem to be about the only offense on the team.  So what theories explain each of the other players?  Maybe they just aren't as good as all the hype?

Probably neither is Julien; the article does not explain, it makes excuses.

Right now most of the team stinks, but then , they stank in Spring Training -- OH YES, Spring Training is meaningless - LOL!

6 hours ago, Oldtimer said:

Where's the hitting coach.? Isn't it their charge to correct or change hitting approaches where obviously needed?

Actually we have three don't we?

Julien has changed his approach after 6 or 7 bad games?

I highly doubt it. His approach is what got him here.

And I would take issue will the term “passive”. It’s really the opposite of passive. He’s trying to drive the ball. He’s not looking to get a walk. But, he’s willing to trade a single for a walk. He’s not trying to react to pitches early in the count and ‘put the ball in play’ he’s trying to dictate that the pitcher eventually has to throw a pitch that he’s looking for in a location he’s looking for. And then drive it hard. There are obvious reasons to not like this approach…especially in certain situations…but, it’s not “passive”.

It’s an approach that, when executed well, results in a lot of K’s but also a lot of BB and XBH. He’s always maintained a high OBP with the approach.

Still, the only reason for taking the called strike THREE (other than a truly awful call) is that he’s guessing. He’ll have to fix that part of it, as MLB pitchers pretty much all have more than one pitch, if not three, that they’re willing to throw over the plate late in counts.

12 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Yep. Spring Training stats don't matter. Just as Margo. He went .091/.106/.091 in 47 plate appearances this Spring Training. You seemed to be pretty happy he's been in the lineup in another thread.

You try so hard.

9 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Almost no one loves nuance more than I do but there is no worthwhile word for a 30% swing rate against a 50% zone rate except 'passive'. Or, if there are, they're MORE pejorative, not less so.

Same approach he’s always had.