The D.C. Defenders (1-1) Arlington Renegades (0-2) meet Saturday at Choctaw Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Defenders vs. Renegades odds and make our expert football picks and predictions.
The Defenders play a Texas team for a 3rd consecutive game to start the season. D.C. sputtered in a 27-12 loss in Week 1 at San Antonio as a 6-point favorite as the Under (43.5) cashed. In Week 2, D.C. bounced back as a 5-point favorite in a 23-18 win over the Houston Roughnecks, pushing at most shops as the Over (40.5) barely came in.
The defending XFL champion Renegades have had a difficult time in the 1st 2 games. Arlington was paddled 27-14 at Choctaw in Week 1 by the defending USFL champion Birmingham Stallions, coming nowhere near a cover as a 3.5-point ‘dog as the Under (41.5) just cashed. The Renegades suffered a 27-24 loss in St. Louis as 2-point favorites as the Over (40) hit in Week 2.
These teams met in the nation’s capital in the 2023 XFL regular season, with D.C. picking up a 28-26 win in overtime in Week 9, although the Renegades covered as 8.5-point underdogs with the Over (41.5) cashing.
The teams also met in San Antonio for the XFL Championship Game, with the Renegades posting a 35-26 win as 6.5-point underdogs, again as the Over (47.5) connected.
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Defenders at Renegades odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Defenders -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Renegades -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Defenders +1 (-110) | Renegades -1 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Defenders at Renegades key injuries
Defenders
- WR Keke Coutee (groin) out
- QB Deondre Francois (undisclosed) out
- RB Abram Smith (knee) out
- TE Kaden Smith (undisclosed) out
- RB Pooka Williams (undisclosed) out
Renegades
- QB Holton Ahlers (undisclosed) out
- WR Caleb Vander Esch (undisclosed) out
- WR LuJuan Winningham (undisclosed) out
Defenders at Renegades picks and predictions
Prediction
Renegades 26, Defenders 22
Moneyline
The RENEGADES (-110) are the play at home against the Defenders (-110) in this XFL Championship Game rematch in Arlington.
Arlington is searching for its 1st victory of the season, and it will have a slightly easier path with former NFL WR Coutee sidelined for D.C.
Arlington has a stellar QB Luis Perez, who hit 72% of his pass attempts in Week 2 in St. Louis, including 3 TD drives.
The Defenders haven’t been very strong in pass defense, and the rush has cobbled together just 2 sacks. Facing a guy like Perez, it could be another long afternoon for coach Reggie Barlow’s bunch, especially since stud RB Smith continues to be sidelined.
Against the spread
The Renegades -1 (-110) is the same price as the moneyline. AVOID, and just go with Arlington straight up.
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Over/Under
OVER 43.5 (-110) might be the best play on the board. The Defenders are likely to be rather pass-happy, even without Coutee, since Smith is not available. D.C. has managed just 3.3 yards per carry through 2 games, really having a tough time generating any rush offense.
The Renegades will be more than happy to pass early and often with Perez, especially against a D.C. pass D which has had difficulty against the likes of Brahmas QB Chase Garbers and Roughnecks QB Reid Sinnett. Perez is much better than both of them, so it would be a long day for the D.C. D.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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