Pacers mistakes against Cleveland put major weight on season's final game vs. Hawks

CLEVELAND -- Rick Carlisle reminded the Pacers in the locker room Friday night that the task they face on Sunday is still an enviable one, especially considering where the franchise has been the last two seasons.

After not sniffing the postseason in 2021-22 or 2022-23 and exiting the 2020-21 postseason in the play-in round, the Pacers would have gladly signed up for a scenario in which they would go into the last day of the 2023-24 regular season controlling their own destiny with a playoff spot on the line, knowing they could win and get in or lose and still have the worst-case scenario be a spot in the play-in round.

That's what the situation will be Sunday when the Pacers host a play-in round bound Atlanta Hawks team at Gainbridge Fieldhouse at 1 p.m.

"He likened it to a Game 7," Pacers backup point guard T.J McConnell said. "We win and we're in. We've gotta be prepared, fired up and in front of our crowd, hopefully that will give us an advantage."

However it was unfortunately fitting for these Pacers that they head into the season's final game with more work that still has to be done to obtain their baseline goal for the year and that they missed out on another opportunity to put more on the table. There were heights they could have reached in terms of playoff seeding with a win over the Cavaliers on Friday that are no longer possible after their 129-120 loss at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. They still control their own destiny, but they now control less of it because of first-quarter defense and late-game execution, problems that have cost them several other wins this season that could have provided more security and upward mobility going into Sunday.

A win over the Cavaliers on Friday night combined with Orlando's loss to Philadelphia would have put the Pacers in a fourth-place tie with the Cavaliers at 47-34 and would have given Indiana a 3-1 season series win over their Central Division rival and therefore the tiebreaker. They would have clinched a top-six seed and a playoff berth and beating the Hawks on Sunday would clinch them homecourt advantage in the first round. Instead, they allowed the Cavaliers to improve to 48-33 and clinch not only a playoff berth but a top-four seed and that homecourt advantage.

The Pacers are now in the three-way tie for fifth with Orlando and Philadelphia at 46-35, two back from Cleveland with just one game to play each. They have the tiebreaker with the 76ers but not the Magic. They can take the fifth seed if they win and the Magic lose, but otherwise a win puts them in the No. 6 spot. A loss coupled with an Orlando win over Milwaukee and a win by Philadelphia over the Nets means the No. 7 seed and a play-in matchup with Miami, who beat Toronto on Friday and sits one game back of that three-way pack at 45-36.

The Pacers can still actually fall all the way to the No. 8 seed if they lose, the Magic lose, the 76ers win and the Heat beat Toronto in their final game. In that case, Philadelphia would move up to fifth, the Heat would take the tiebreaker with the Magic and Pacers because the Heat won the season series against Orlando and would get the No. 6 spot by virtue of being the Southeast Division champions, and the Pacers would be in eighth because they dropped two out of three to the Magic.

That worst-case but certainly not impossible scenario would mean a road play-in game at Orlando, then, if they would lose, a home game against either Chicago or Atlanta for the right to play a No. 1 seed Boston Celtics team that will end up with the best record in the Eastern Conference by 13 games.

For obvious reasons, that's a fate the Pacers would like to avoid, and they know they already would have had they executed just a little better on Friday, or at some point worked out some of the issues that have plagued them all season.

"This is a maturity moment, I think for this group," veteran center Myles Turner said. "For a lot of guys who haven't been in that situation, you can leave no doubt at this time of year. We know that going forward, but this was a big maturity game for us tonight."

From the very beginning, Cleveland looked like the more mature team, because they were. Seven of the 10 members of the Pacers' rotation had experienced the playoffs before in some capacity, but never together. The Cavaliers were there a year ago and disappointed with a first-round exit against the Knicks, but just being there gave them a sense of what they'll need this time around.

The Pacers, meanwhile, operated like a team that didn't see what it's continual issues have already cost them. They have been a shaky first-quarter team all year, especially on the defensive end. They have allowed 30.5 points per first period, the fourth-highest figure in the NBA. Their defensive rating of 117.9 points per 100 possessions in the first quarter is the third worse in the league. And on Sunday they allowed the Cavaliers to outscore them 35-26 in the first period, shooting 15 of 25 from the floor with 22 points in the paint.

All-NBA guard Donovan Mitchell got rolling with 13 first-quarter points on his way to 33 for the game. Center Jarrett Allen played off him masterfully in pick-and-roll situations and he scored nine points on 4 of 5 shooting while grabbing seven rebounds. He would end up with 29 points on 13 of 14 shooting to go with 13 rebounds.

"More than anything we let their key guys get going," Turner said. "When you see a couple of shots go in, for anybody, in a game like this it does wonders for your confidence. I don't think we were dialed in enough on pick-and-roll coverage. We got way too many offensive rebounds from them as well."

In the third quarter they finally did set a tone and outscored the Cavs' 35-27, holding Cleveland to 10 of 22 shooting and 1 of 7 from 3-point range in that period. They continued to rally in the fourth with stronger overall defense, allowing just 20 points in the paint. The Cavs were 20 of 45 from the floor after the break and 6 of 18 from 3-point range.

The Pacers kept rallying until a driving layup by All-Star forward Pascal Siakam brought them back within two points, down 120-118 with 2:04 to play, but they were outscored 9-2 the rest of the way with a pair of mental errors being the crushing blows.

"We just didn't rebound," Haliburton said. "I didn't rebound. They scored out of it. I just gotta be better."

Guard Andrew Nembhard drew a foul on the ensuing possession and hit two free throws to cut the deficit back to three points, but Haliburton had another mistake on the following possession that put the Pacers in an even bigger hole. He was guarding Max Strus, who started the possession in the left corner. Garland drove to the middle of the floor and Strus broke up to the left elbow. Garland set a screen on Haliburton right in front of Strus, and while trying to fight through it, Haliburton bumped into Strus during his shooting motion. Strus missed the shot, but Haliburton was called for a three-shot foul. Strus hit two of the three free throws to put the Cavaliers up by five with 24.3 seconds to go.

"It was a poor last three minutes by me," Haliburton said. "I gotta be better defensively, executing better offensively. We were right there. We just didn't make enough plays at the end and they made enough. It came down to the last three minutes and we didn't make enough plays."

They didn't, and now a week after setting themselves up with a win over the Heat, they still need a win over the Hawks to assure they'll be in a best-of-seven series.

Again, just being in this position represents improvement, as they were 35-47 last season and 25-57 a season before, marks that were bad enough to get them top-nine picks in the draft in consecutive years for the first time since 1988 and 1989. And it helps that they get to play an Atlanta team they've defeated three times, hanging over 150 points on them twice.

On the flip side, there were so many opportunities for them to grab one more win so that they wouldn't need one one Monday. They lost 11 games against teams that won't make the postseason including eight against teams with 25 wins or fewer.

So now it comes down to one game. There will be more for the Pacers either way, but the circumstances could change drastically based on one game.

"We've worked really hard this year to be in this position," Haliburton said. "You could say, 'Oh, you should be in a better position. You should be in a worse position.' It really doesn't matter. It's all up to this one game and being ready to go."

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: What the Pacers need to do Sunday to clinch a playoff berth vs. Hawks