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Money latest: State pensions 'could be in doubt for future generations'

A pensions expert has told Money that if he was 20 today, he would be "sceptical" about the promise of a state pension. Read this and all the latest consumer and personal finance news below, plus leave a comment in the box.

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FTSE still on the up - as HSBC boss retirement and Whitbread job losses see shares rise

By James Sillars, business reporter

The index rose by 0.3% to 8,174 points at the open.

Only real estate stocks were proving any kind of drag.

Among the companies leading the gainers was HSBC.

It climbed by more than 2.6% in London after the Asia-focused bank announced a rise in shareholder awards despite a slight drop in quarterly profits.

The share price reaction also reflected news that chief executive Noel Quinn is to retire - read the full story of that here...

Among the other gainers in early dealing was Whitbread.

The Premier Inn owner's annual results revealed a sharp rise in annual profits but also a new focus on hotel investment at the expense of its restaurant brands.

That was placing 1,500 jobs at risk, it warned - read the full story here...

State pensions could be in doubt for future generations, expert warns

By Jess Sharp, Money team

We first came across Tom McPhail when he posted this on X... 

The pensions expert appeared to be suggesting state pensions were at risk of disappearing.  

After speaking to him on the phone, he confirmed that was exactly his concern, warning something needed to be done sooner rather than later to avoid a "catastrophic" situation.  

He described state pensions as a social contract – each generation pays taxes and national insurance, which funds the pensions of today's older people, and they hope the following generation will do the same for them.

But with population growth slowing, there's a worry there may simply not be enough people to keep the system afloat in the future.  

"There's a significant demographic shift going on in the UK. It started before the Second World War, cohorts of people born in the 1930s have been experiencing significantly longer lives than was the case prior to that, so people now in their 80s are living quite a lot longer," he said. 

"But at the same time, we've got fewer children coming through. And so this exacerbates the shift in the age of the population."

He said if he was 20 today, he would be "sceptical" about the promise of a state pension because he isn't sure how it's going to be paid for.  

At the moment, the state pension system costs around £120bn a year and more than half of retired people rely on it to make up at least 50% of their income, he added.  

Over the next 50 years, Tom predicts the proportion of GDP the state spends on older people will increase from around 16% to 25%.  

"I hesitate to use the word unsustainable, but it will certainly start to look challenging," he said.  

"If we suddenly switched off the state pension or significantly reduced it, people would be in trouble, so the government can’t do that. 

"You can't keep on progressively ratcheting up a more and more generous state pension. The costs of state pensions is going to become increasingly difficult for the younger cohorts to bear."

He pointed to a few ways to potentially salvage the state pension – policy change, more babies being born or people working until they are in their 70s.  

"Politicians are going to have to make decisions about how to get out of this kind of political bind," Tom added. 

"Time and time again it's just kick the can down the road on the pension question, just put a sticking plaster on it and let the next government deal with the problem. 

"You can't keep doing that. So I would really like to see, on the other side of this forthcoming general election... whoever's in power, in collaboration with whoever's in opposition, to just really open it up to some honest conversations about where the demographics are going to take us." 

He does note there is one piece of good news: "This happens quite slowly, so we do have time on our side." 

Swap rates are the reason mortgage rates are rising - what are they?

Basically, swap rates dictate the pricing of fixed-rate mortgages.

Lenders, such as banks and building societies, borrow in order to lend.

They borrow from financial markets and often these transactions are made using Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) swap rates, which can move around.

By contrast, most domestic mortgages are set on what is known as a "term" rate – in other words, the borrower knows how much interest they will be paying for a set period of time.

To avoid a situation where the SONIA rate goes above the rate it is charging borrowers, which would leave the bank or building society lending at a loss, the lender will seek to enter a "swap" arrangement which protects them from such a situation.

Under such agreements, two parties exchange cash flows with each other. The lending bank will swap the variable payments it may make to service a mortgage (which is fixed to the SONIA rate) for payments at a fixed rate. This insulates the lending bank from unexpected increases in the SONIA rate.

Once a deal is struck based on the swap rate, mortgage providers set their fixed deals for customers, with their own profit margin priced in.

How are swap rates decided?

Swap rates are based on what the markets think will happen to interest rates in the future.

When they go up, so do the rates being offered on the high street, as we have seen in the last week or two amid uncertainty over whether forecasts for a summer base rate cut are accurate.

Read other entries in our Basically... series:

Train strikes in May - everything you need to know

Train drivers will stage a fresh wave of strikes and overtime bans in May, causing disruption to the rail network.

The strikes are part of a long-running dispute over pay.

Members of Aslef union at 16 rail companies will walk out on different days from 7 to 9 May. Additionally, all members will refuse to work any overtime from 6 May to 11 May.

Here is a full list of the services affected by strikes and when.

Rail strike dates

Tuesday 7 May

Strikes will affect c2c, Greater Anglia, GTR Great Northern Thameslink, Southeastern, Southern, Gatwick Express and South Western Railway.

Wednesday 8 May

Strikes will affect Avanti West Coast, Chiltern Railways, CrossCountry, East Midlands Railway, Great Western Railway and West Midlands Trains.

Thursday 9 May

Strikes will affect LNER, Northern Trains and TransPennine Express.

Overtime ban dates

From Monday 6 May to Saturday 11 May union members will not work overtime.

Overtime bans, an action short of a strike, means some services may not be running or may be reduced as drivers refuse to work their rest days.

People are advised to check before they travel, as some areas may have no service.

How do strikes and overtime bans affect services?

Strikes tend to mean services on lines where members are participating are extremely affected or cancelled entirely, whereas overtime bans often lead to reduced services.

How can I stay in the loop?

You can use the National Rail's journey planner to see when trains are running.

Be sure to check it close to when you plan to travel, as it will be updated regularly.

Why are the strikes still happening?

Aslef rejected a two-year offer of 4% in 2022 and another 4% this year, saying this was way below inflation, and was linked to changes in terms and conditions.

Aslef says train drivers have not had an increase in salary for five years, since their last pay deals expired in 2019.

Royal Mail pausing £5 charge for post carrying counterfeit stamps

Royal Mail is temporarily waiving a £5 charge for unsuspecting members of the public who receive post sent with a fake stamp.

The company said it was developing a new scanner in its app which will let customers scan stamp barcodes and check whether they are recognised counterfeits.

While this takes place, the £5 charge for people who receive the post will be paused, Royal Mail said.

It added that it would work to ensure the sender of items posted with counterfeit stamps are charged instead of the recipient where possible.

Royal Mail chief commercial officer Nick Landon said new security measures alongside its barcoded stamps have "led to a 90% reduction" in counterfeits.

"We want our customers to buy stamps with confidence and always recommend that customers only purchase stamps from post offices and other reputable high street retailers," he said.

Tesco offering up to £50 in points through 'Clubcard Challenges' campaign

Tesco Clubcard users have the chance to secure up to £50 in points over the next six weeks as part of its new "Clubcard Challenge" initiative.

Three million Clubcard holders will be invited to take part in the campaign. If they accept, they'll receive 20 challenges that Tesco says will be "personalised just for them" - of which they can choose up to 10 to complete.

The supermarket giant said it was working with AI company EagleAI to offer the "hyper-personalised" promotion.

Challenges will involve spending a certain amount on a range, such as its BBQ food offering, or type of product, such as plant-based food. Customers who complete the "challenges" will be handed extra Clubcard points.

Lizzie Reynolds, group membership and loyalty director at Tesco, said the company was "very excited" to see how its customers responded.

Let us know what you think of this in the comments box above.

Heathrow strikes | Car insurance hikes ease | Major job losses at Getir

Strikes at Heathrow Airport are taking place over the next few weeks, with the first one already under way.

Staff at the UK's biggest airport are set to walk out during the early bank holiday in May, with their union warning planes could be "delayed, disrupted and grounded".

Click here to find out when all the strikes are, what disruption is expected and which airlines are affected...

The average price paid for comprehensive motor insurance rose 1% in the first quarter of the year, according to industry data indicating an easing in the steep rises seen last year.

The latest tracker issued by the Association of British Insurers (ABI) showed a 1% increase on the previous three months to £635.

That was despite the average claim paid rising 8% to reach a record of £4,800, the body said.

The ABI said the disparity showed that its members were "absorbing" additional costs and not passing them on.

Nevertheless, the average policy was still 33%, or £157, higher between January and March compared to the same period last year.

Read the full story here...

Getir, the grocery delivery app, has abandoned a European expansion that is set to result in the loss of around 1,500 jobs in the UK.

Sky News had previously revealed that the Turkey-based company, which means "to bring" in Turkish, had successfully raised money from investors to fund its withdrawals from the UK, Germany and the Netherlands.

It had already departed other countries including Italy and Spain.

The exits were prompted by growing losses linked to the company's rapid expansion.

Read the full story here...

Ottolenghi launches food range with Waitrose

Waitrose is launching an exclusive range of products with popular chef Yotam Ottolenghi today. 

The Israeli-British chef is famous for his Middle Eastern and Mediterranean-inspired food, and has worked with the supermarket to release products including a pasta sauce, spice blend and shawarma marinade. 

It is the first time Ottolenghi has partnered with a supermarket in such a way. 

The full range will be available in Waitrose shops, Waitrose.com and Ottolenghi.co.uk from today, while a selection of products will be available from the supermarket on Deliveroo and Uber Eats. 

An introductory 20% off offer is being launched until 18 June. 

The range includes: 

  • Ottolenghi Miso Pesto 165g (£4)
  • Ottolenghi Kalamata Olive & Harissa Sauce  350g (£4.50)
  • Ottolenghi Pomegranate, Rose & Preserved Lemon Harissa 170g (£5)
  • Ottolenghi Green Harissa 170g (£5)
  • Ottolenghi Aleppo & Other Chillies Blend (£3.95)
  • Ottolenghi Sweet & Smokey Blend (£3.95)
  • Ottolenghi Citrus & Spice Blend (£3.95)
  • Ottolenghi Red Chilli Sauce (£4.50)
  • Ottolenghi Shawarma Marinade (£4)

Ottolenghi said he had "always been super eager to get our flavours onto people's dinner plates nationwide, not just in London, without having to cook it from scratch every single time". 

He added: "I hate to admit it but the pasta sauce already features heavily in my home kitchen, when no one is looking."

Why price of beer, bread and biscuits looks set to rise

The cost of bread, biscuits and beer could increase this year due to the impact of the unusually wet autumn and winter on UK harvests.

Research suggests that production of wheat, oats, barley and oilseed rape could drop by four million tonnes (17.5%) compared with 2023.

The wet weather has resulted in lower levels of planting, while flooding and storms over winter caused farmers more losses.

The predictions come just as the rate of price increases on many food items begins to slow as inflation falls.

The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) analysed forecasts from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHBD) and government yield data.

It found a "real risk" of beer, biscuits and bread becoming more expensive if the poor harvest increases costs for producers, according to its lead analyst Tom Lancaster.

Beer prices could be affected because the wet weather is still disrupting the planting of spring crops such as barley, the ECIU said.

And potatoes might also see a price hike in the coming months, with growers warning of a major shortage in the autumn due to persistent wet weather.

Read the full story here...

Gameboys, Sindy/Barbie dolls, designer shoes, 1950s furniture: The items in your attic that could be worth a small fortune

By Emily Mee, Money team

When I think about the toys of my childhood - my pink Barbie car, my Gameboy Micro, my collection of Pokemon cards - I can't tell you where they went. 

Maybe they were shipped off to a charity shop at some point... Or perhaps they're in the attic? 

While my hot pink Gameboy Micro is lost to the void of time (or a cardboard box somewhere in my mum's house), other versions of it are selling on eBay for £100 or more. 

And there are Pokemon cards selling for anything from a tenner to hundreds or even thousands of pounds. 

It's possible you also have items at home that are a collector's dream. 

Gumtree says its collectables category is already proving to be a "hotbed of activity" this year, with listings up 22% in 2024 so far. 

Its most popular items include rare stamps, coins, war memorabilia and Pokemon cards. 

Spring is often the most popular time for buying and selling collectibles, with demand spiking in March and April. 

We've enlisted the help of TV presenter and collectables expert Tracy Martin to give an idea of what could make you an easy buck. 

Old toys making a 'retro comeback'

Tracy explains that while trends change, vintage toys tend to stand the test of time. 

"Toys are always going to be popular because they tap into nostalgia, our childhood memories," she says, explaining that adults like to buy the toys they used to have. 

Perhaps you were into cars, and you've got some old diecast vehicles from Matchbox, Corgi or Dinky Toys. 

A quick look on toy auction site Vectis.co.uk shows a Corgi Toys "James Bond" Aston Martin estimated to sell for between £600 to £700 - while others are likely to fetch £50 to £60. 

Sindy dolls are also particularly sought after - particularly those from the 1960s - and Barbie dolls from the 1990s too. 

Pokemon cards have seen a "massive surge", Tracy says, with people paying "thousands and thousands of pounds" for good unopened sets. 

She's even seen examples of people paying £16,000 upwards. 

Another up-and-coming market is games consoles, such as Gameboys, vintage consoles and PlayStations, which are making a "retro comeback".

What else could earn you some cash?

Furniture

Tracy says there's currently a surge in people wanting to buy "mid century" furniture, which is dated to roughly 1945 to 1965 and typically uses clean lines and has a timeless feel. 

Vintage Danish furniture is sought after, particularly tables and chairs with good designer names such as Wegner, Verner Panton and Arne Jacobsen.

Prices range from the low hundreds into the thousands.

People will also look out for vintage framed prints by artists such as Tretchikoff, J.H. Lynch and Shabner - these can range in price from £50 upwards to a few hundred pounds plus. 

Clothes

Vintage clothes, handbags and shoes can fetch a good price - but you can also invest in modern pieces. 

Tracy suggests looking out for good classic designs with high-end designer names such as Gucci, Chanel, Dior and Louis Vuitton. 

Modern designers such as Irregular Choice, Vendula and Lulu Guinness are also collected. 

Collaborations with designers and celebrities can do well as they're often limited edition. 

For example, Tracy says the H&M x Paco Rabanne maxi silver sequin dress retailed at £279.99 last year but now sells for in excess of £600. 

When it comes to shoes, "the quirkier the design the better" - so look out for brands such as Irregular Choice and Joe Browns. 

Converse and Dr Martens collaborations also do well, depending on the design and condition, as well as Adidas and Nike limited edition trainers. 

What's the best way to sell? 

Tracy recommends to always research before selling your items, as they might perform better on different platforms and you can also get an idea of how much they sell for. 

For example, Vinted can be a good place to sell clothes and shoes, while other items might be better suited for sale on Gumtree, eBay or Etsy. 

Tracy's favourite way to sell is through auction - especially if there are specialist sales. 

Vectis is one of the biggest and most popular for toy selling. 

Interests in different periods and items can go up and down, but for the time being vintage pieces from the 1980s and 90s are popular. 

How much you'll be able to get from an item often takes into account its rarity, condition, whether it reflects a period in time, and if it's got a good name behind it. 

You never know - you might be sitting on a treasure trove.