Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Bregman's Bat Wakes Up

Prop bet #1: Burnes brings the pain

Corbin Burnes wasted no time making an impression in his Baltimore Orioles debut last week, piling up 11 strikeouts over six innings to sink the Los Angeles Angels. He only allowed one hit in that Opening Day effort and didn’t give up a single walk.

Now he takes on a limited Kansas City Royals team in his second start of the year, and I sense another dominant afternoon, particularly in the punchouts category.

The Royals’ bats have struck out 44 times over the first five games of the season, and Burnes should be able to rip through a mediocre line-up with his deadly mid-90s cutter.

Going back to last season, Burnes had at least seven strikeouts in four of his final six regular season outings to cap off a third straight year with double-digit wins and at least 200 Ks.

Burnes is the ace that Baltimore needed to spark a deep postseason run, and I’m jumping on these odds for the Orioles starter to ring up at least seven batters tonight to continue his hot start to 2024.

Corbin Burnes prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (-105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Big-game Bregman

At 1-5, the Houston Astros have stumbled out of the gate this season, but I don’t expect that to last for long. There’s simply too much power in this Houston batting lineup — and I’m looking at Alex Bregman as a strong candidate to lead the fight back tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Bregman is only hitting .174 through the first six games, but he had a hit in last night’s loss and he’s fared well against Toronto starter Chris Bassitt. In 22 at-bats against the Blue Jays righty, Bregman has a .364 average — and his eight hits include three doubles and a home run.

Though Bassitt was largely steady in his first start of the year, he still gave up five runs on six hits in five innings of work, so there’s an opportunity for Bregman & Co. to get after him before he settles.

One glance at Bregman’s 2023 numbers — 163 hits and 98 RBIs — confirms that he’s still an elite hitter, and three of his four hits this season have come off right-handed pitchers.

The Astros need a spark here and, as one of the veterans in the Houston clubhouse, I see Bregman leading the way in tonight’s series decider.

Alex Bregman prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Harrison feels the heat

The Los Angeles Dodgers are off to a predictably hot start with Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman at the top of the order, and Kyle Harrison is the latest starter to run the gauntlet against this loaded L.A. lineup. The San Francisco Giants lefty gave up six hits in his first start of the year against the San Diego Padres on Friday, and I see him getting similar treatment tonight at Dodger Stadium.

With just eight career starts under his belt, this is a big spot for Harrison, who had a 4.15 ERA across seven starts in 2023 as a rookie. Though Harrison posted solid numbers in this matchup last season (including five hitless innings in an early October clash), this Dodgers’ offense is crushing almost every category so far this year, with 80 hits and 52 runs through eight games while posting a .293 batting average.

While Harrison’s potential is clear, his command has been erratic in his outings in the minors and majors. I’m picking the Over on his hits allowed here, with the 6-2 hosts poised for another productive night at the plate.

Kyle Harrison prop: Over 5.5 hits allowed (+120 at BetMGM)