NBA playoffs predictions and play-in tournament schedule live updates: Bracket, odds, draft lottery and stats

First quarter done here in Denver in a matchup that goes a long way toward determining the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. The Wolves lead the Nuggets 28-26. Nikola Jokić has 11 points, five rebounds and three assists so far. Anthony Edwards with six points for Minnesota. Both teams are making threes, and seems like both teams are feeling each other out a bit in the first 12 minutes. Non-Jokić minutes are coming for Denver.

If you were not watching the game between the Toronto Raptors and the Brooklyn Nets tonight, A.) that’s understandable; and B.) congratulations, you have avoided a really strange fate. Of the eight games on the schedule, this was the only one that had no potential to impact playoff or Play-In seeding. It would have been weird if you tuned in unless you were, like, related to one of the players.

However, it ended up providing some drama for fans of the Raptors, who have been eliminated from playoff contention for quite some time. To explain why, we are going to have to go on a bit of a journey. Get comfortable.

• When the Raptors traded for Jakob Poeltl in February 2023, they traded a 2024 first-round pick that was protected through the first six selections (among other things and Khem Birch) to the San Antonio Spurs. If the pick is not transferred to the Spurs this year, the same protections exist in 2025 and 2026. If it does not convey by then, it turns into two second-round picks.
• The Raptors entered the game with a 25-54 record, the sixth-worst mark in the league. If they finish in that slot, they would have a 45.8 percent chance of keeping their pick following the draft lottery in May. The Memphis Grizzlies are the team ahead of the Raptors, at 27-53 after losing in Cleveland. They do not appear intent on winning against the Lakers on Friday or the Nuggets on Sunday, either.
• If the Raptors finish with the same or better record as the Grizzlies, the odds of keeping their pick — which, because of the weak draft, might not even be a good thing, depending on who you ask — would get worse. Basically, going 1-2 or 0-3 in their last three games would assure the Raptors of finishing with a worse record than Memphis. The Raptors finish the season with two games in Miami.
• The Raptors were playing without the injured Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl, Chris Boucher, Gary Trent Jr. and Bruce Brown. They also have kept RJ Barrett out of back-to-backs since suffering a knee injury earlier in the year, and rested Kelly Olynyk. The Nets, uninspiring as they might be, were playing something approaching their regular lineup.

And then a funny thing happened: The Raptors were not only hanging around, but up by a possession or two for much of the second half. Meanwhile, the Heat were getting smacked by the Mavericks, making it possible that they would have nothing to play for in the season finale on Sunday, as they could be locked into the eighth seed for the start of the Play-In Tournament. If the Raptors won in Brooklyn, they could have been in a scenario in which they were playing an unmotivated team on Sunday, with a win hurting their odds of keeping their pick. However, even if you rest a lot of players, it is not as if you can go out and tell the guys that are playing not to try to win. (Well, you can, but it would be weird.)

Immanuel Quickley made a 3 to give the Raptors a one-point lead with 50 seconds remaining, but ex-Raptor Dennis Schröder got those points back with a layup and a foul. The Raptors turned it over on the next possession, and looked to be forced into fouling and hoping for Brooklyn to miss some free throws. But no: Garrett Temple, the subject of a profile from yours truly today, ripped the ball from Noah Clowney’s hands, and went the other way, looking to tie the game. Alas, Clowney made up for the gaffe, blocking the layup attempt. The Nets wound up winning 106-102.

As it is, one loss will guarantee the Raptors finish sixth in the reverse standings. Crisis averted — or not, depending, again, on who you ask.

The Cavs simply could not lose to the Memphis Hustle, a halftime deficit be damned.

Most of the Grizzlies you've heard of were out (didn't even make the trip), but the Cavs had to overcome a three-point Memphis lead at the break to win, 110-98.

The win puts the Cavs ahead of Orlando for the moment in fourth place in the East, 1/2 game behind the New York Knicks. Donovan Mitchell led Cleveland with 29 points and Caris LeVert added 18 off the bench. Memphis received a career-high 34 points from Jake LaRavia.

The Cavs have a huge showdown Friday against the Indiana Pacers, who are just a game behind Cleveland in the standings.

Dear New York Knicks, Milwaukee Bucks, Orlando Magic and Indiana Pacers:

The Memphis Grizzlies are not your friend. Here is their injury report for tonight's huge game against the Cavaliers. Well, not huge for the Grizzlies, who are finished, but for the East:

• Santi Aldama
• Desmond Bane
• Brandon Clarke
• Jaren Jackson Jr.
• Luke Kennard
• John Konchar
• Jakle LaRavia
• Ja Morant (hurt/suspended for most of the year)
• Derrick Rose
• Marcus Smart (hurt for a while)
• Yuta Watanabe
• Vince Williams Jr.
• Ziaire Williams

LOS ANGELES — The craziest stat of the night wasn't even Draymond Green’s five 3-pointers. He hadn't done it since 2017, but he has nine such games now in his dozen NBA seasons.

No, the wildest stat of the Golden State Warriors' 134-120 win over the Los Angeles Lakers, in this increasingly riveting Game of Play-In Thrones, was Stephen Curry making all six of his 3s. That just never happens. Well, almost never.

The one other time Curry had at least six 3-point attempts in a game and made all of them was his rookie year. He went 6-for-6 from 3 in a one-point road loss at Denver in January 2010. He hadn't yet changed the game. He didn't have a neon-green light to shoot any time and from anywhere on the court.

Curry making six straight 3s has come to mean he will take another six. At least. He doesn’t go 6-for-6 from 3 because him making merely two in a row might be the beginning of an eruption. And Curry eruptions are often devastating for the opponent. So taking just six is rare, even rarer when he doesn’t miss any.

But this Tuesday night, Curry didn't have to hunt 3s even though he was feeling it, finishing with 23 points on nine shots — to go with eight assists, seven rebounds, two blocks and a steal. The Lakers' defense had an Anthony Davis-sized void in it, so Curry and the Warriors were able to take their time, get what they wanted from the Lakers. He didn’t have to be thirsty to produce a monster night.

This capricious season is down to its final week, and the Warriors might have, just maybe, found their optimal form. Not exactly just in time, but shy of too late.

Read more here.

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets are both tied for the best record in the Western Conference (55-24). Both are sitting one game ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder (54-25). And tonight, the Wolves and Nuggets play for the fourth time this season. The winner will likely take the No. 1 seed in the West, so we're bringing in Wolves reporter Jon Krawczynski to ask three tough questions about this matchup.

Question: The Wolves just won in Denver almost two weeks ago. What is the key to replicating that game tonight?

Krawczynski: First of all, not having it be the second night of a road back-to-back in that elevation. But they played Denver tough under similar circumstances — but at home — without Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid on March 19 and only lost by three points, so a tight one is definitely in play tonight. The Wolves just seem to match up well with the Nuggets. No one can stop Nikola Jokić, but the array of bigs they can throw at him at least makes him work for what he can get. Reid surprisingly played him really well in Denver a couple of weeks ago, with Gobert serving as a help defender and daring Aaron Gordon to make shots. It's a strategy that has bothered the Nuggets, and I'm sure we will see the Wolves try again tonight. If they are their usual defensive selves and get some shot-making from Anthony Edwards, they'll be in good shape.

Question: Why have the Wolves been successful (2-1) against the Nuggets so far this season?

Krawczynski: A lot of the above applies, but let's focus on one pretty big factor: Edwards. If the 22-year-old has a weakness, it is not taking lesser opponents seriously. You will see him goof around against Washington or Charlotte or Portland, but he has a deep respect for the Nuggets. He wants to beat them. The intensity is generally there from the start, and the Nuggets don't really have an answer for him on defense. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope usually gets most of the work, but Edwards is too strong for him. Now, he is seeing the floor as well, making the simple but devastating pass much earlier. It makes him so hard to guard. When you have a star like that and a defense that never quits, it's a tough combination.

Question: Do you think the Wolves need that No. 1 seed more than Denver or OKC?

Krawczynski: They definitely need it more than Denver. The Nuggets know exactly who they are and exactly what they have to do to get to the Finals. They can win at home or on the road. The Wolves can't act like they've been there before because they have not been there before. They're trying to get out of the first round of the playoffs for just the second time in the franchise's 35-year history. Even their vets, Gobert and Conley, have not had a ton of success in the playoffs. OKC is similarly unproven, but the team just seems to have a poise about itself late in games. The Wolves are more excitable. They defend better at home and have turned Target Center into a rowdy environment. Having homecourt throughout the Western Conference playoffs would be a big benefit for them.

Read today's edition of The Bounce, The Athletic's daily NBA newsletter.

For a moment, the Milwaukee Bucks had found their joy once again. They played with that joy throughout the rest of the second quarter while taking a 20-point lead into the half against the Boston Celtics. And they kept that joy as they held onto their lead in the third quarter.

But when Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks' two-time MVP and seven-time All-NBA forward, collapsed without contact with another player at 3:40 in the third quarter, that joy disappeared.

As the Bucks have proven throughout this season, joy is fleeting.

"The first feeling is 'Oh shoot, it's my teammate's down. Game plan. Game plan. OK, he’s down, is he OK? OK, game plan,'" Bucks forward Thanasis Antetokounmpo said after Tuesday's game. "My second feeling is like 'Oh my God, that’s my baby brother on the floor. What’s going on?'

"Just hoping it's nothing crazy. Usually — you know how we’re built — for us, it's OK, he’s down, come back. When you see the other person can't come back, which is very rare for us not to be able to come back because we will fight through everything, and we'll live with what we have.

"It's hard. That's the hardest part because then you know it's kind of, a little bit serious. There's a frustration part from that side. The good part is like, we got the game, we won, and we're building good habits, especially against that team."

On Wednesday morning, The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported that Antetokounmpo avoided damage to his left Achilles tendon, a best-case scenario for the Bucks. That doesn't change the precarious position the Bucks find themselves in. Not only will the Bucks need Antetokounmpo to return and play well after an injury, but the Bucks have run out of regular season reps for their big three of Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton to get acclimated playing with each other under head coach Doc Rivers.

Read more here.

Karl-Anthony Towns knows what it feels like to be on a heater like the one Anthony Edwards experienced against Washington on Tuesday night.

So it was only fitting that he was as happy as anyone to see Edwards finally cross the hallowed 50-point threshold that he has been chasing for four years.

Towns celebrated with Edwards after his career-high 51 points carried the Minnesota Timberwolves past the Wizards. It may not be long before Towns is playing with his co-star again in the games.

When Towns had surgery for a torn meniscus in his left knee last month, it seemed like the Timberwolves would need to at least plan on starting the playoffs without their All-Star big man.

Less than a month later, Towns is preparing to return before the regular season ends. The Timberwolves announced on Tuesday that Towns has been cleared for full-contact, 5-on-5 basketball activities, a major step toward returning to play.

The Wolves have three games left in the regular season after their 130-121 victory over the Wizards on Tuesday night, and his quick recovery could be critical to the team being fully operational for Game 1 of a first-round playoff series.

The more games Towns can play before the playoffs begin, the better it will be for knocking the rust off and reacclimating to a team that has played very well in his absence to be the No. 1-seeded team in the Western Conference right now.

"That's what we're hoping," coach Chris Finch said when asked about the prospects of Towns returning before the season ends. "We’re hoping it could be sooner rather than later. There's not much time left, so we'll take whatever we can get."

Read more here.

The Mavericks are in Miami to play the Heat tonight, with both teams playing on zero days rest. The Heat still have a chance at a top-6 seed, and a loss imperils them towards being locked into a Play-In game.

That game is also big for the Clippers. If Dallas wins, then Clippers-Mavericks is official. If the Clippers win tonight, Games 1-2 in the Clippers-Mavericks first-round series will be in LA. Meanwhile, if the Suns beat the Clippers tonight instead, then the Lakers and Warriors are locked into the West Play-In Tournament.

The best case scenario for the Clippers is that the Heat beat Mavericks, leaving the Clippers with nothing left to accomplish prior to game time at 10:30 p.m. ET. The Clippers are playing their fifth game in seven days tonight, so there'd be use in getting players like Paul George rest.

There's a chance the Lakers played their final home game of the season Tuesday. If so, it's because several season-long trends and at least a half-dozen bad losses earlier in the season came back to haunt them.

This is why the Lakers' losses in November, December and January mattered so much. A loss to the Spurs in December or the Nets in January don’t carry the same gravity as Tuesday’s defeat to the Warriors, but they were just as important and, frankly, less excusable.

Had the Lakers won several of the games they tricked away due to poor game planning, lineups and/or uncharacteristic player performances during the season's first three months, they could afford an absence or two from LeBron James and/or Anthony Davis without their season being on the line. Their 3-10 stretch after winning the In-Season Tournament is turning out to be crippling. Outside of that skid, the Lakers are 42-25 on the season — a 51-win pace.

Now, this Lakers season is on the brink of becoming a considerable what-if. What if Rui Hachimura started from Day 1 and played more than Taurean Prince? What if Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell were never taken out of the starting lineup? What if the team adjusted quicker against "non-shooters"? What if Jarred Vanderbilt played more when he was healthy? What if last season’s core played more in general? What if they played bigger? What if the organization more aggressively pursued a rotation upgrade at the trade deadline, such as new Suns wing Royce O'Neale? What if they prioritized second-year guard Max Christie's long-term development instead of elevating Cam Reddish? What if they better maximized James and Davis both being healthy?

Read more here.

Atlanta Hawks All-Star Trae Young is returning from a torn radial collateral ligament in his left pinkie finger Wednesday night against the Charlotte Hornets, a league source confirmed. ESPN first reported the news.

Young last played against the Toronto Raptors on Feb. 23, and the Hawks have gone 12-11 in his absence. Atlanta (36-43) is currently 10th in the Eastern Conference with three regular-season games remaining. As it stands, the Hawks would be on the road against the Chicago Bulls in the Play-In Tournament.

The three-time All-Star has averaged 26.4 points and a career-best 10.8 assists on 37.1 percent from 3-point range over 51 games this season.

The dismal start against the Clippers — even with a strong second half that closed the margin to seven — left the Suns searching for answers, even though at this point they may not exist. After the game, coach Frank Vogel and players were asked about accountability and urgency. And about how a team fighting to stay out of the Play-In Tournament could come out so flat in the regular season's final week.

"I know people want us to place blame on one player or a coach, but we win or lose as a team," said Kevin Durant, who shot 8 of 22 and had 21 points.

Vogel's biggest disappointment: "Our offensive toughness,’" he said. "We got to compete for spots. (We got to) play through physicality better, not just in this game, but in recent games. Teams want to get into us and reroute us and foul us. That's playoff basketball."

For some teams, the regular season doesn't matter as much. It does, but the pursuit is more about the postseason. This happened 20 years ago when the Suns had it rolling with Steve Nash, Shawn Marion and Amar'e Stoudemire. Phoenix was so connected that the regular season was mostly a formality. Everyone focused on the playoffs and how the Suns could get past Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs.

This team gives off a similar vibe, it just has'’t earned it. Durant has won championships. Booker has been to the NBA Finals. Bradley Beal has had individual success, but all this happened in different places with different teams. The experience doesn't completely transfer over. Chemistry with this team has never been established. Leadership was never defined. Perhaps the best example has come against short-handed teams, those playing without star players. The Suns know this can make an opponent dangerous, yet it's a hurdle they've never overcome, a lesson never learned.

Read more here.

Donovan Mitchell didn’t play Sunday due to injury management on his bothersome left knee. He told me he was healthy and healed from the injection he received to cure a bone bruise, but I don't think that's the case. He’s looked slow and uncomfortable and won't drive to the paint. On the Cavaliers' recent five-game road trip, he shot 36 percent from the field and 27 percent from 3. With the Cavs fighting for playoff positioning, and the feeling that each of these games matter, I would have liked to see Donovan play against the Clippers. But looking at his numbers and just watching him move, it seems like something is still wrong and his absence was more than a load management situation.

Dean Wade, meanwhile, hasn't played since March 8. He is a critical rotation player who has missed the last 16 games; Cleveland is 5-11 in that stretch. He's already been ruled out for Wednesday's game.

The injury is a knee sprain, but this is a curious situation. He left the team to be present for the birth of his child, and I am told he was then injured at practice and hasn't played since. But before the road trip started, coach J.B. Bickerstaff said Wade's injury was a wear-and-tear situation. He also said he could not guarantee Wade would be back for the playoffs.

The Cleveland Cavaliers were in second place at the All-Star break. Now, the Cavs are just 46-33, a half a game ahead of the Indiana Pacers for FIFTH! What a disastrous second half — sadly, the third rough one in a row under coach J.B. Bickerstaff. Cleveland plays Memphis tonight — the second night of a back to back for the Grizzlies — and host the lowly Hornets on Sunday. That’s two games the Cavaliers absolutely should win. Sandwiched in there is a ridiculously big game against … Indiana. It’s in Cleveland.

The Cavaliers have to shoot more 3s. There is a more sophisticated way to describe the general lethargy and ineptness of their offense, but Cleveland was the best team in the NBA for two months. When that was the case, the Cavs were averaging about 40 3s per game. On that disastrous 5-game road trip that is now over, they took 30 3s per game. Jason Lloyd and I have written ad nauseam about this dilemma. Their best players include both Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, but when they are on the floor together, the offense the Cavs play is not the magic formula they used in December and January, when only Allen was healthy.

And yet, I maintain that in the modern NBA, when the regular season has never mattered less, we could be marveling at this team's recovery in two weeks time, patting them on the back for a 2-0 lead in a first-round series. But Donovan Mitchell has to be right and Bickerstaff either needs to change the rotation to make the offense the best it can be or find a way to play with Allen and Mobley on the floor together. The players need to be better, too — this is certainly not all on the coach. But the onus falls on Bickerstaff when it comes to strategery, and what the Cavs have tried lately hasn't worked.