Can Americans still have a sensible and friendly political discussion across the partisan divide? The answer is yes, and we prove it every week. Julie Roginsky, a Democrat, and Mike DuHaime, a Republican, are consultants who have worked on opposite teams for their entire careers yet have remained friends. Here, they discuss the week’s events with editorial page editor Tom Moran.
Q. After Arizona’s top court approved a nearly complete ban on abortion, Donald Trump said it went too far and that he would not sign a national ban. A few days earlier he said states should decide the issue for themselves and that the reversal of Roe v. Wade was “an incredible achievement.” What does this maneuvering tell you?
Mike: All the maneuvering tells me Donald Trump is very skilled at convincing people he fits whatever they want to believe about him. He says pro-life voters they should be happy with him for the overturn of Roe. Pro-choice voters shouldn’t be afraid of him because he won’t sign a national ban. Trump is actually being more consistent than many conservatives who for years asked for the issue to be returned to the states only to now want a federal ban. Trump can be very convincing when he wants. Underestimate him at your own peril. Just ask Hillary.
Julie: Women are going to die in Arizona because of Donald Trump’s Supreme Court. They will die in Florida, Texas, and other states across the country, too. And, make no mistake, Trump would sign a national abortion ban in 30 seconds, because the people he plans to install in all levels of government will demand it. Trump is responsible for women going into sepsis because they can’t get an abortion even while carrying a dead fetus. He is responsible for young girls having to travel out of state like fugitives because their own state forces them to give birth to their rapist’s child. Remember that when you vote in November.
Q. Jack Ciattarelli launched his third campaign for governor, saying he’ll do better than he did during the red wave election of 2021, when he came within three points of Gov. Phil Murphy. Unlike in his two previous campaigns, Ciattarelli endorsed Donald Trump this time. And he offered a few bold ideas, like capping property taxes at 1 percent of its assessed value and limiting legislators to four terms in office. How would you rate his launch and his chances?
Mike: Jack has a good chance and starts from a strong position. Full disclosure here: I support Jon Bramnick, my state senator, in his bid, but Jack’s advantages include having run twice before, which helps a candidate create relationships and earn name ID statewide. Term limits and property tax caps are generally popular with Republicans and the electorate at large. We saw Christie cruise to re-election with his 2% cap on property tax increases. On the issue of Trump, it is important to look at recent history. New Jersey elected for governor the candidate of the opposite party of the president in 8 straight elections here from 1989 to 2017. Gov. Murphy broke that streak in 2021, though the race was much closer than anticipated. Whoever wins for president will impact the race for governor greatly.
Julie: Let’s fast-forward to January 2025. Either Donald Trump is back in the White House, which will force any viable Republican candidate to bend the knee and risk alienating the general electorate in New Jersey, or Trump will have lost, which I fear will lead to political violence that will make January 6 look like a rehearsal. We analyze these gubernatorial races like they are in a vacuum, but they will be very much influenced by events outside New Jersey.
Julie: Mike makes some very good points about Ciattarelli’s strengths, but next year’s race will not be like any gubernatorial race before it, thanks to the MAGA crazies who have infected our body politic. It remains to be seen whether the Republican base in New Jersey has gone off the deep end like it has nationally, which may hurt someone with Ciattarelli’s relatively moderate record – especially if there are no more county lines. He can’t lean too far into the crazy to win the nomination, because that would hurt him in the general election, but obviously feels he has to lean a bit further into it than he was comfortable with four years ago in order to win the primary next June.
Q. President Biden has built a whopping financial advantage over Trump, with nearly $200 million on hand, about double Trump’s total. And independent groups have pledged more than $1 billion for Biden, compared to a pittance for Trump. Why the imbalance, and will it prove crucial?
Mike: Money matters less in presidential races than in any other election. Almost every person in America has an opinion on both Biden and Trump, and no 30-second commercial is changing your mind. Your opinion will only change based on their actions, the debates and news coverage. Money will matter on the mechanics of turnout and early vote, where Democrats held crucial advantages in 2020, and that could be the difference in a close election. The GOP used to be very good at turnout, much better than Democrats, but that advantage slipped greatly under Trump, mostly because he has cast doubt on early voting, ceding convenience voting to Democrats.
Julie: The reason for the imbalance is pretty obvious: Trump is shaking down donors to pay for his legal fees, not his political campaign. The primary reason he is running is to stay out of prison not because he has any burning commitment to public service. But in this hyper-polarized environment, where Trump seems to get more earned media than the president of the United States, I worry that a money advantage for Biden is not dispositive.
Q. The House is back in session, and Speaker Mike Johnson is facing huge questions about Ukraine and Israel, and just lost a major vote on the FISA surveillance bill after Trump instructed House Republicans to “kill it.” How much longer can we expect Johnson to hold onto this job?
Mike: Johnson will hold onto his job because Trump doesn’t want to see another embarrassing fight. Most of the House will stay in line because a vacated speakership and subsequent fight will show inability to govern. Of course, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz are not known for their great strategery.
Julie: I don’t think House Republicans are eager to go through another internal bloodbath six months before an election. Johnson will probably keep his job – although the inmates are closer than ever to not only running the asylum but the whole mental healthcare system.
Q. Finally, the governor dismissed the controversy over the county line ballot design as unimportant, saying, “I think it’s ridiculous the amount of airtime it’s gotten … I just think it’s a flyspeck issue that people have conflated with Donald Trump and others and made this about an assault on democracy.” What’s your reaction?
Mike: Well, the debate about the line matters. The county parties, local elected officials, and local county committee people of both parties have earned the right to vet candidates and provide support for those they deem best to win and serve. Don’t throw out the good because you didn’t like this one campaign, or you don’t like the process in some counties. Like other well-intended but foolish do-gooder ideas like campaign finance reform, the unintended consequences will serve to mostly help the wealthy and the incumbents. But the outsiders who accomplish little but love to yell and protest will still end up on the outside doing little other than still yelling and protesting, just at someone else.
Julie: “Flyspeck?” Let me tell you the story of how Phil Murphy became governor, from someone who was present at the creation: He and I spent years on the road talking to the men and women (OK, it was basically all men) who decide which candidate gets the county line. By the middle of the Bridgegate trial, which was in the fall of 2016, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop and Senate President Steve Sweeney had both announced that they were not running for governor, which cleared the way for Murphy to receive every county line in the state -- even though there were several other Democrats running against him in the primary. With that, he became the de facto Democratic nominee more than six months before the first vote was cast. If anyone knows how much party leaders matter in securing electoral office and how little say rank and file voters have, it’s Phil Murphy.
Q. President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Ukraine will lose the war unless Congress approves military aid soon, a view endorsed by the top American military commander in Europe, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, during Congressional testimony this week. If Ukraine does lose, for want of American artillery shells and air defense munitions, what impact might that have on the November elections?
Mike: I don’t know that it will impact November. Aid is only being withheld because Congress suspects popular support doesn’t exist to keep sending money and weapons to Ukraine. However, if Ukraine falls before November, and we see video and hear stories of horror, perhaps it will backfire on those who withheld the aid. Those supporters of Ukraine need to take the fight to Congress politically. Withholding aid is not isolationist; it is actively pro-Russia and pro-Putin.
Julie: It will have no effect on this year’s elections, but it will be a dark stain on our nation and on the future of the Pax Americana, which has kept Europe stable for nearly eighty years. We should all be deeply ashamed that we have come to this point as a nation.
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A note to readers: Mike and Julie are deeply engaged in politics and commercial advocacy in New Jersey, so both have connections to many players discussed in this column. DuHaime, the founder of MAD Global, has worked for Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and President George W. Bush. Roginsky, a principal of Comprehensive Communications Group, has served as senior advisor to campaigns of Cory Booker, Frank Lautenberg, and Phil Murphy. We will disclose specific connections only when readers might otherwise be misled.