Exploring the enormous Marlins decision that appears inevitable. And personnel notes

The only relevant question with this Marlins season — if it continues on this current road to nowhere — isn’t how many games they will lose or how many light years they will finish out of first place.

The question is: What will all the losing make them do?

Even before a single pitch was thrown, the Marlins this past offseason considered trading some of their best assets (Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett), but only if they had received a mother lode of talent in return, including players under team control far longer than Luzardo.

A day before the opener, they dumped their best bench player — Jon Berti — and his $3.5 million salary for two prospects who are years from contributing at the big-league level, if they make it at all. Marlins manager Skip Schumaker then said he was pleased Berti could be sent to a place where he could compete for a championship.

Money is certainly a factor in these decisions — particularly the move with Berti — but it won’t be the driving force if new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix decides in a couple of months that this team isn’t going anywhere and they’re better off trading some of their best assets.

If Bendix decides to do that — and that’s a big if — the motivation would be to replenish a farm system that the current regime believes is in poor condition.

It would be done if Bendix and owner Bruce Sherman conclude that the current core — factoring in payroll constraints that prevent them from spending anything close to the top National League East teams — isn’t good enough to compete for a championship even when everybody is healthy.

As usual, it would be done with the hope of a better tomorrow at the expense of today.

That decision is at least many weeks, if not several months, off.

But if the Marlins opted for that approach, the logical names who could come into play in trade talks include Luis Arraez (earning $10.6 million this season and eligible for free agency after 2025), Luzardo (who can become a free agent after 2026), Garrett (who will be under team control through 2027) and Edward Cabrera (under team control through 2028).

Sandy Alcantara — signed to a reasonable five-year, $55 million extension — would command a greater return when healthy. He’s missing this season after Tommy John surgery. He will make $17 million in 2025 and 2026 (very good value for an ace), with a $21 million team option in 2027 that assuredly will be exercised, provided he returns to anything close to his previous form.

Among those five names, there’s no urgency to make a decision anytime soon on any. All five potentially could stay.

But a decision will need to be made on Arraez within the next year. If the Marlins and Arraez don’t agree to a lucrative extension, the Marlins would assuredly need to consider trading him at some point than risk losing him for nothing in free agency in 19 months.

Josh Bell, earning $16.5 million, could be shipped to a contender this summer if the Marlins are well below .500 in a couple of months.

The Marlins also have bullpen parts — headlined by Tanner Scott — who could net a quality prospect in return.

The most interesting decision will be whether to build around center field Jazz Chisholm Jr., who will get a big raise from $2.6 million this offseason and can become a free agent after 2026.

If the Marlins could afford a payroll anywhere close to the middle of the pack among MLB teams, the best approach would be to keep Luzardo, Garrett and Alcantara and their best hitters and supplement them with $60 million in free agent bats this winter.

But that’s not how this franchise operates. When Sherman bought the team in 2017, he told his 17 or so partners that he wouldn’t have cash calls asking them to cover losses. So while Sherman has indicated a willingness to lose some money, he’s clearly disinclined to lose hundreds of millions. And the Marlins don’t have the revenues to finance a $150 million payroll, from all public evidence that exists. (Whether they could afford a $125 million payroll is less clear.)

A partial rebuild is more likely than embarking on a spending splurge that boosts the payroll from its current $93 million (per Cots baseball) to $140 million.

The only question is whether that’s the direction that Bendix and Sherman choose to go.

THIS AND THAT

Here’s how Bendix sized up the two prospects acquired in the Berti trade (rookie ball outfield John Cruz, who’s 18, and High A ball outfielder Shane Sasaki, who’s 23):

On Cruz, who hit .294 with 10 homers and a .907 OPS in 48 games at the Florida Complex League last summer:

“He’s got power. He’s somebody that we think [has] an interesting combination of power and ability to put the ball in play. It’s hard to know what an [18]-year-old is, but it’s a good tool set to add to the organization.”

Sasaki, 23, hit .301 with seven homers and 39 RBI in 64 games at High A Bowling Green, Kentucky.

“With Shane Sasaki, somebody I know a little bit better from my time with the Rays,” Bendix said. “Pretty well-rounded player, outfielder, speed/power combination, does a lot of things well. A little further along in his career, but somebody that we like the upside of both of those players.”

▪ Keep in mind that not only is Avisail Garcia due $12 million in both 2024 and 2025, but the Marlins will need to pay him $5 million to buy him out after the 2025 season.

▪ With Cabrera and Garrett, the expectation is both will be able to rejoin the big-league rotation at some point in April. Cabrera pitched in a Triple A game this week.

For Eury Perez, a return to game action would be later, even if he experiences no pain or setbacks with his elbow.

Perez might be ready for bullpen sessions in late April or May. He could be pitching in games in May or June if all goes well.

Perez, who has been throwing up to 105 feet with breaking balls mixed in, said last week that he has experienced no discomfort since elbow soreness sidelined him during spring training. A physician told him that surgery is not needed at this time.

▪ Last Thursday’s opener was the first time that Sixto Sanchez ever pitched in front of fans in a big-league stadium. Even though he allowed a game-tying home run, he appreciated Marlins fans cheering him.

“They still love me,” he said.

He ended up going 3 ½ years between MLB appearances. He said nobody in his inner circle ever encouraged him to retire and that Alcantara “always texted” him with a simple message: Do not “give up.”