PBT’s Week 25 NBA Power Rankings: Celtics finish season on top, Nuggets second

This is the season’s final NBC Sports NBA power rankings — is there a team that can stop the seemingly inevitable NBA Finals of Boston vs. Denver? Here’s a look at the teams that hope they can (and the rest of them).

1. Boston Celtics (62-17, Last Week No. 2). Ignore the loss to Milwaukee (the Celtics treated that game like the last day of school), this is unquestionably the best team in the East and it’s hard to look at how every other team in the conference is playing the past few weeks and see any of them as a threat to Boston’s dominance. With that comes pressure for the Celtics — anything short of a trip to the Finals will be seen as a disaster. This is their year, the Celtics need to take advantage of it.

2. Denver Nuggets (55-24, LW 1). What I wrote about Denver in previews for the NBA season remains true today: The Nuggets have set the bar for contending this season. These Nuggets need to be healthy—Jamal Murray is back—and don’t feel as deep as last season, but they still act and play like champions who can flip the switch when needed. There will be no easy path out of the West and Denver’s depth will be tested, but can any team actually beat them four times out of seven?

3. Minnesota Timberwolves (55-24, LW 3). Karl-Anthony Towns is expected to be back for a game or so before the playoffs start, which is huge — the Timberwolves need his floor spacing and shot creation in what will be a tough West postseason. However, he will not be back for the big showdown with Denver on Wednesday night, a game that could determine who gets the No. 1 seed in the West. Minnesota needs the No. 1 seed more than Denver — the Timberwolves are a young team that plays better at home.

4. Dallas Mavericks (49-30, LW 5). Dallas enters the playoffs as the biggest threat to Denver in my eyes — they have an MVP-level player in Luka Doncic, as good a second creator as there is in the league with Kyrie Irving, and the team is red hot — 13-2 in its last 15 games with the best defense in the NBA over that stretch. For the third time in five years, we will get the Mavericks vs. the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. Doncic vs. Kawhi Leonard. Irving vs. Harden. That promises to be an epic showdown.

5. Oklahoma City Thunder (54-25, LW 4). There has been a lot of “The Thunder are too young to win in the playoffs” talk leading into the postseason, but the Thunder have not played like a young team all season. OKC is 24-24 in clutch games, with a top-10 net rating. Anybody who thinks this team is going to be a soft landing spot for a lower-ranked team has not been paying attention. This postseason also will be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s introduction to a lot of casual fans, ones about to learn why he will be in the top three in MVP voting this season.

6. New York Knicks (47-32, LW 8). In a chaotic, unpredictable Eastern Conference — and without Julius Randle, who had to go under the knife to fix his shoulder — what will constitute a successful postseason? I would argue making the second round is a success, but if they can stay as the No. 3 seed and avoid the 4/5 first-round series (and stay on the opposite side of the bracket from Boston), a run to the Eastern Conference Finals is not out o the question. OG Anunoby’s return and how much he helps the defense make that kind of run feel even more possible.

7. Los Angeles Clippers (51-28, LW 13). Kawhi Leonard has missed the Clippers last five games with a sore knee (and that will become six on Wednesday), and while the team has won four of those (including beating Denver and Phoenix) there is no playoff run without Leonard being healthy. The same is true for James Harden (dealing with a foot issue, also out Wednesday) and Paul George (you guessed it, out Wednesday vs. the Suns). The Clippers are headed for round three of their postseason showdowns with the Mavericks and, while Dallas comes in hot, Los Angeles is one of the few teams with the depth to match up with them. It will be an epic series if the Clippers can just say healthy.

8. Milwaukee Bucks (48-31, LW 6). Giannis Antetokounmpo “only” having a calf strain is as good of news as they could have hoped for out of that scary injury. That said, this is an injury that traditionally takes a couple of weeks to fully heal and is easy to re-aggravate if a player comes back too quickly — Milwaukee can’t afford that (or a more serious injury) by rushing their MVP candidate back. If the Bucks hold on to the No. 2 seed they will have a tough first-round playoff matchup against one of the 76ers (with Embiid), the Heat or the Pacers.

9. Phoenix Suns (46-33, LW 9). Inconsistency caught up with the Suns. Again. Tuesday’s loss to a Clippers team without Harden or Leonard was a serious blow to the Phoenix’s hopes of a top-six seed. If the Suns — currently seventh in the West, one game back of New Orleans — are going to avoid the Play-In they need to win out, which will not be easy with three games on the road against the Clippers, Kings and Timberwolves. The Suns remain a dangerous playoff team because of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, but will that be enough in a deep West?

10. Philadelphia 76ers (45-35, LW 18). Are the 76ers the biggest threat in the East to Boston? In a conference where the other 2-8 teams are struggling, injured or untested, Philadelphia — with a healthy Joel Embiid — may loom as the biggest challenge. Philly is 28-7 this season in games where Embiid and Tyrese Maxey are both healthy and on the court. Philly could avoid the play-in but will need not only to beat Orlando and Brooklyn, it will need help — Indiana or Cleveland would need to lose out. Not likely, but stranger things have happened.

11. Orlando Magic (46-33, LW 10). Orlando hasn’t been the higher seed and hosted a playoff series since 2011, but Jamahl Mosley has helped guide his team there, which is why he deserves some votes for Coach of the Year. Orlando’s defense will make them a tough out in any playoff series, but can Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner create enough offense with defenses dialed in against them? If it is an Orlando vs. Cleveland first-round matchup, bet the under because scoring will be at a premium.

12. New Orleans Pelicans (47-32, LW 7). New Orleans’ playoff dreams hinge on Brandon Ingram returning and being healthy, but he has missed the team’s last 10 games (they have gone 5-5 in those). One of those wins was against the Suns, which gives the Pelicans a real shot at a top-six seed and avoiding the Play-In. However, to hold on to that top-six spot, New Orleans needs wins this week and has to face the Kings, Warriors, and Lakers. It’d be easier to pick up a couple of wins in that stretch if Ingram were healthy.

13. Indiana Pacers (46-34, LW 14). Tyrese Haliburton has started to get his groove back. In his last five games, he’s averaged 20.2 points and nine assists a game, shooting 38.1% from 3 — all numbers close to his season average (not first 20 games of the season good, but better than the rough patches. Haliburton led the Pacers to a huge win over the Heat Sunday that has them in control of holding on to the No. 6 seed and avoiding the play-in, but they need a win or wins against Cleveland and Atlanta to close out the season.

14. Miami Heat (44-35, LW 15). Tyler Herro is back and in the rotation just in time for the postseason, but the Heat also need Bam Adebayo, Terry Rozier and Nikola Jovic to be fully healthy if this team is going to make a deep run. Without some serious help, the Heat will once again have to come out of the Play-In to chase their postseason dreams, which could start with a rough 7/8 game against Philly.

15. Golden State Warriors (44-35, LW 17). How comfortable is Steve Kerr entering the postseason? “I’d be more comfortable if we were sixth [seed].” That’s not happening, but the Warriors control their own destiny in terms of getting at least the No. 9 seed and hosting the first play-in game — win out and that’s the minimum. If the Kings continue to stumble, the eighth seed is not out of the question. Golden State has found its identity with this group and is playing its best basketball of the season now, plus they still have Stephen Curry, but will that be enough to get them out of the Play-In?

16. Los Angeles Lakers (45-35, LW 16). The Warriors’ offensive explosion against the Lakers Tuesday night was a reminder of two things: 1) Anthony Davis is an elite defender (should be top three Defensive Player of the Year voting) and the Lakers fall apart without him; 2) The margin for error with this roster is very small. LeBron missing the Minnesota game and Davis the Golden State one almost certainly will send the Lakers to the 9/10 showdown, and they could have to play that game on the road.

17. Sacramento Kings (45-34, LW 12). What has been a rough last couple of weeks for Kings fans — watching their team drop 5-of-8 and slide deep into the play-in — doesn’t look like it’s going to get any easier. Malik Monk remains out, and it will be tough for the Kings to get needed wins this week against the Pelicans and Suns without him. Falling to the No. 9 seed is not out of the question if they lose out (and the Warriors keep winning). One other thing: Domantas Sabonis is on the bubble for All-NBA, and Kings fans may want to prepare themselves for him potentially missing out.

18. Cleveland Cavaliers (46-33, LW 11). No team’s offseason may hinge more on the next few weeks. The Cavaliers went 1-4 on a recent road trip, are 3-7 in their last 10, and have slid to fifth in the East. If that is followed by a first-round playoff exit, will Donovan Mitchell sign an extension to stay? If not, do they have to trade him? If he does sign, do the Cavaliers have to own up to the idea that a backcourt of Mitchell and Darius Garland does not work and make a move? On the other hand, a little playoff run changes the perspective on all that a lot.

19. Chicago Bulls (37-42, LW 21). Here’s what you need to know about the Bulls and the Eastern Conference: The team that did this is making the postseason (9/10 game against the Hawks).

20. Houston Rockets (39-40, LW 19). While the Rockets tripped up at the end and are not headed to the postseason, what we saw during their 11-game win streak was reason for Houston fans to be optimistic. Jalen Green emerged as a constant offensive force, Amen Thompson found his way and started to show some of his immense potential, and that combined with Alpren Sengun — with Ime Udoka as coach — are reasons to think the Rockets are on the right trajectory.

21. Atlanta Hawks (36-43, LW 20). Trae Young will be back in time for the Play-In, and if the Hawks can win a couple of games there, the playoffs. That’s good news, but it doesn’t change the fact that either he or Dejounte Murray are expected to be traded this summer — the Hawks have a -5.8 net rating this season when both are on the court. They don’t mesh. The Hawks need a new direction.

22. Brooklyn Nets (31-48, LW 22). What’s concerning about Brooklyn not making the playoffs this season is this was not a young, rebuilding team (Portland, Charlotte), nor was it a good team just decimated by injuries (Memphis). Brooklyn just wasn’t that good. Change has to start with finding the right full-time head coach (Kevin Ollie was 10-15 as the interim and the defense was better, but it likely doesn’t get him the job). The Nets are known to be star-hunting, but this may be a tough offseason for that strategy.

23. San Antonio Spurs (20-59, LW 24). Every game Victor Wembanyama does something we’ve never seen before — and he’s just getting started. Imagine how much better he is going to come back next season. It’s a good time to be a Spurs fan.

24. Memphis Grizzlies (27-52, LW 23). Flush this season — except for the play of GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr. — and come back next season with Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr. and the full crew healthy and ready to roll. This should be a 50-win team next season in what, again, will be a deep Western Conference. This season was just a blip.

25. Toronto Raptors (25-54, LW 26). Toronto picked its direction this season — that’s an excellent first step. The Raptors are rebuilding around Scottie Barnes (he needs to make another leap) with RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley around him — and all those players are 25 or younger. There’s some roster building to do around that core, but this is a good start.

26. Utah Jazz (29-50, LW 25). Utah’s tanking job since the All-Star break means the team will keep its top-10 protected pick in this June’s draft. Does Danny Ainge and the front office bring in more young talent to go around Keyonte George and Walker Kessler, or do they use their cap space and contracts to get veterans who are a fit with Lauri Markkanen and his timeline? A lot of options for Utah this summer.

27. Portland Trail Blazers (21-58, LW 28). Scoot Henderson started to find his groove late in the season, and combined with Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe, Portland has a young core of guards that could be something, with Deandre Ayton in the paint. Despite some of the rumors out there, league sources told NBC Sports to expect Chauncey Billups back as coach next season.

28. Charlotte Hornets (19-60, LW 29). Much-needed change is already underway: New, deeper-pocketed owners, a change in the front office with GM Jeff Peterson, and a search for a new coach already underway. Brandon Miller looks like a wise draft pick, but what we really need to see is him next to a healthy LaMelo Ball next season.

29. Washington Wizards (15-65, LW 27). What is the plan in Washington? They nailed drafting Bilal Coulibaly last year, and Deni Avdija played well this season. Is the plan to run it back with Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole next season, or are bigger changes coming?

30. Detroit Pistons (13-66, LW 30). Last season the Pistons had the worst record in the NBA. This season they were worse. Cade Cunningham tried, but the roster needs (a lot) more talent, and new coach Monty Williams was... there. If the reports are true that GM Troy Weaver will return, then what changes are coming?