Colorado State releases 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Forecasters calling for a “very active” season
BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Citing a likely La Niña and extremely warm waters in the tropical Atlantic, forecasters at Colorado State are calling for a hurricane season that is well above average.
As a part of the National Tropical Weather Conference, Colorado State University forecasters put out one of the more respected tropical outlooks, along with NOAA a little later in the spring.
The institution notes this forecast is “of above-normal confidence for an early April outlook”, one reason for this is the likelihood of La Niña development. As of this forecast release, the tropical Pacific is under El Niño conditions. These are anticipated to transition to La Niña conditions by the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Why is this important? When La Niña conditions are in place, vertical wind shear is highly reduced. This means that the upper-level winds are conducive to storm development, allowing hurricanes to strengthen and grow with ease.
Another important ingredient in hurricane development is warm waters in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Much like last season, these waters are much warmer than normal. This provides ample fuel for storms to take in and develop.
“The eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal,” Philip Klotzbach, a scientist at CSU says. “This anomalous warmth is the primary reason why CSU’s seasonal hurricane forecast for 2024 is calling for such an active season.”
The scientists at CSU use analogs of previous years to help create the forecast for the 2024 season. Previous years include 1878, 1926, 2010, and 2020. An important note, 2020 was the most active Atlantic hurricane season ever recorded. They chose these years due to the similar expected environmental conditions.
It’s important to remember that regardless of how “active” a hurricane season is, it only takes one to make a very large impact.
Hurricane season begins in June and lasts through November. August to October tends to be the peak of the Atlantic season, with August and September being bigger months for the state of Texas.
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