N.Y. long-range summer forecast: What should we expect for heat, rainfall?

STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — As New York basks in the midst of spring mist, concerns over snow are no more, and in its place are blossoming thoughts of the warmth to come. While the season of frolicking through flowers and seasonal showers still remains, it’s worth considering what the summer of 2024 holds in store.

With May just around the corner, the transition to summer is closer than some may think, with June 1 signaling the initial day of meteorological summer, according to National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). An early outlook by the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Climate Prediction Center calls for the stretch of May, June and July to feature above-average temperatures and precipitation.

WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPS FOR N.Y.

It looks like it’s going to be a hot summer — well, hotter than usual.

The three-month outlook sheds light on the probability of climatological conditions across the nation. And in examining that forecast we see that for the months of May, June and July, there is a decent probability of experiencing warmer temperatures than traditionally expected.

Particularly, the majority of the state, including New York City, is slated with a 40-50% chance of seeing warmer-than-average temperatures, according to the Climate Prediction Center. However, for much of western New York, including Buffalo and Rochester, the odds are elevated. In fact, a good swath of the state is forecast with a 50-60% probability of seeing temperatures greater than most summers.

Well just how warm is warm? Is this “crank the A/C to max” heat, or casual Italian ices by the poolside heat? At this time, that remains unknown.

However, for reference, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s online weather data for Central Park from 1991 to 2020 notes that mean average temperatures for the month of May typically measure in at 63.2 degrees; the month of June jumps a bit higher to 72; and July sits at 77.5.

MORE-THAN-AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR NEW YORK CITY

In examining the precipitation outlook for the same three months we see a different picture.

The vast majority of the state will see seasonable rainfall amounts throughout the summer. However, those downstate and in New York City are given a 33-40% chance of seeing elevated precipitation levels, as reported by the Climate Prediction Center.

While exact forecast rainfall amounts remain unforeseen, the five boroughs can anticipate more rain than usual.

When it comes to New York City, according to data collected by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration between 1991 and 2020, Central Park typically records 3.96 inches of precipitation in May; 4.54 inches in June; and 4.60 inches in July.

A WARM WINTER SEASON

The forecast for a warmer summer comes on the heels of what was a considerably mild winter season.

Yes, snow made its return, but even that fell short of customary winter expectations; snowfall on Staten Island never exceeded more than 10 inches.

Meanwhile, temperatures for the majority of the winter (from December through February) fell above average, an outcome forecast by the Climate Prediction Center back in October 2023.

Now, that’s not saying residents didn’t feel Jack Frost nipping at the nose; the city certainly received a few bouts of bitter cold days.

On Jan. 17, temperatures hit a low for the month, with the average dipping as low as 20 degrees and the actual low marked at 15 degrees. This cool trend persisted for more than a week, lasting through Jan. 22, as reported by the Advance/SILive.com weather station.

But take a look at January as a whole: 20 of the 31 days were characterized by an average temperature greater than the usual. Typically, the average rests in the low to mid 30s, as noted by the NOAA’s Central Park data.

Should the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook hold true once again, it will definitely be a summer for the beach — or maybe the air-conditioned basement.