NBA playoffs predictions and play-in tournament schedule live updates: Bracket, odds, draft lottery and stats

The Celtics, who have already clinched the league’s best record, can’t change their seed over the remainder of the regular season. But they could still have a bit of influence on their playoff path. With the rest of the Eastern Conference field jumbled behind them, it will be interesting to see how Boston approaches tonight’s matchup with Milwaukee.

A Celtics win would push the Bucks closer to falling out of the second seed — and potentially closer to the fourth or fifth spot and a possible second-round matchup against Boston. Do the Celtics consider Milwaukee their chief competition in the East? Would Boston be better off losing, keeping the Bucks in second, and postponing a series against the Bucks as long as possible? I don’t know the answers, but the situation is intriguing.

While no first-round matchups are set, one feels like it is, and the probabilities agree: The LA Clippers, with a 96 percent chance to finish as the No. 4 seed, vs. the surging Dallas Mavericks, whose odds are at 95 percent to land fifth, per Basketball Reference. It’d only be fitting these two teams square back off against each other after the Clippers’ 2020 and 2021 first-round wins against Dallas.

There are plenty of similarities and some major differences, especially for Dallas, who has completely remade its roster several times in the ensuing years. Even those who remain have changed — since that 2021 series, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Maxi Kleber have gone from starters to roles off the bench, while Josh Green, who only played four minutes of garbage time in that series, has emerged as a reliable rotation player. But Dallas, of course, is still led by Luka Dončić, who has career postseason averages of 33.5 points and 9.5 assists against the Clippers. While his heroics weren’t enough to win either series, he’s returning to this one with more reinforcements than ever before.

The big question if this series does come to fruition: Will the Clippers enter this series wanting to go small, and/or will they quickly discover they have no choice? If so, can those lineups be effective enough to force Dallas into doing the same thing they did in 2020 and 2021? In the last series these teams played, Dončić's switch-hunting ruthlessness did play Ivica Zubac off the floor (although Dallas also leaned into weirdness by starting Boban Marjanović), but the Clippers also had better options to use as a small-ball center.

The series isn’t set, but the math indicates we're only getting slightly ahead of ourselves with this early analysis. These Clippers have shown a higher ceiling than the manner in which they've played as late, while Dallas has been playing its best ball since the trade deadline — perhaps of the entire Dončić era. With a couple more wins from these two teams, it should lock this potential matchup in for good, but we’ll find out soon enough.

TORONTO — To the extent that they need it, the Indiana Pacers (45-34) will get a break in Toronto tonight. The Raptors are resting Immanuel Quickley. In addition to the injured Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl, the Raptors will also be missing Gradey Dick because of a groin injury, which has seemed to delight the denizens of the Internet for some reason.

Anyway, that gives the Pacers a giant advantage tonight as they fight to stay out of the Play-In Tournament. If things break right, meanwhile, the Pacers could work themselves into home-court advantage in the first round. The Pacers close the season with a game in Cleveland and then home to Atlanta. Winning that game in Cleveland would open up the possibly of winning the tiebreaker with the Cavaliers, as it would tie the season series. They have also locked up tiebreakers against Philadelphia, New York and Miami, but do not have it against the Orlando Magic.

There's going to be a lot of scrutiny on the 7-8 seed positioning in the Eastern Conference. You know the Milwaukee Bucks will be watching. And, hoo boy, wouldn't we all want to know which way they're leaning.

The Philadelphia 76ers and the Miami Heat are likely to take up those two seeds, but in what order? Philadelphia is currently a half-game up on the Heat, though Miami has an extra game to play. Right now, Basketball Reference gives the 76ers a 44 percent chance to land the 7-seed and the Heat a 40.5 percent chance. Miami has given Milwaukee lots of trouble in the playoffs in years past, including ousting the top-seeded Bucks last season. But Philly is hot right now — they haven't lost since Joel Embiid came back from injury last week and have won five straight overall. The 76ers, with a healthy Embiid, does not seem like a fun playoff opponent to face, especially for a team trying to find itself and avoid a second straight upset to a Play-In survivor.

There's the other side of this, too. The Bucks seem a lot more beatable than the top-seeded Celtics, so Philadelphia and Miami should want to get the 7-seed if they can. The difference would be gigantic. The Celtics could still win as many as 66 games this season. The Bucks might not even win 50.

That's if they hold on to the 2-seed. The Magic and Knicks are just a game back and all three teams have four games left on their schedules.

In the West, the Sacramento Kings have a tough game at Oklahoma City tonight, depending on who plays for the Thunder. A loss could drop the Kings two games behind the Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans for the last guaranteed playoff spot. (Phoenix hosts the LA Clippers, while New Orleans visits the Portland Trail Blazers).

The Suns-Pelicans-Kings hunger games triangle to avoid the Play-In Tournament doesn't really get spicy until the weekend, but the back-to-back set that has both Phoenix and New Orleans visiting Sacramento should be appointment viewing.

The Kings are a game behind the other two, but will have the tiebreak with Phoenix if they win on Friday. New Orleans has the tiebreak with Sacramento but not with Phoenix, so the Suns have the No. 6 spot right now. Also, fun fact: The two games this weekend will be the fifth time Sacramento plays both teams. Go In-Season Tournament!

In the East, the race for spots two through five in the East between Milwaukee, New York, Orlando and Cleveland takes center stage.

Milwaukee has a tough on-paper game against Boston tonight, depending on who plays for the locked-in Celtics, and then two big games against Orlando upcoming. The Bucks are a game up on New York and Orlando and own the tiebreak with the Knicks, so they're in decent shape to get the second seed in spite of their recent woes.

Orlando's closing schedule is tough, starting with a game in Houston tonight. But the Magic also own a tiebreak with New York and likely will have the conference record tiebreak with Cleveland. Unbelievably, the Magic will be the No. 2 seed in the East if they win their final four games.

Cleveland has Memphis at home Wednesday ahead of an important game against Indiana on Friday. The Pacers can pass Cleveland for fifth if they sweep their final three games. Alternatively, if the Cavs win out, they own a tiebreak with New York, and could move up as high as third if the Bucks sweep Orlando.

As you can tell from above, New York’s tiebreak situation isn't great. The Knicks' best bet is to stay ahead of Cleveland and have the Bucks beat Orlando. That would get New York the No. 3 seed. The Knicks face Chicago on the road tonight.

Philadelphia and Miami, meanwhile, are likely in the East play-in, but the location of that game remains TBD. The Heat will have the conference record tie-breaker, but enter tonight half a game behind the Sixers in the standings. Philadelphia plays Detroit at home, while Miami is in Atlanta to play the Hawks.

The Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves will play warm-up games against the Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards, respectively, before their big showdown tomorrow that likely determines the top seed in the West. Minnesota has the tiebreak on both Denver and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Oklahoma City hosts the Sacramento Kings in a must-win for their flagging hopes of getting the top seed. However, the Thunder still have a realistic shot at landing second if the Nuggets lose in Minnesota tomorrow. Oklahoma City is one game behind Denver, but owns the tiebreak and plays its last four games at home.

At least 13 of tonight's 14 NBA games have some playoff implications, plus there's a Spurs-Grizzlies game that might be really, really interesting to Charlotte fans.

But the one to watch is Lakers vs. Warriors (10 p.m. ET), which likely is just to determine who will have home court if the two teams meet again in next week's Play-In Tournament. A Laker win would seal the Warriors into 10th; a Warriors win means Golden State can land ninth if it wins out.

In addition, the Lakers have some real move-up possibilities if they win. If the Lakers win their final three game and the Pelicans lose at least once before Sunday, the Lakers will nab the eighth position. LA could even move up to seventh if that happens and either the Suns or Kings lose twice as well, but that is a bit more unlikely with these three teams playing each other in the final week of the season.

I think we’ll end up seeing the Clippers and Mavs go at it here. LA (50-28, fourth in West) is two games ahead of Dallas (48-30, fifth), and the latter sits two games ahead of the Suns (46-32, sixth in West) and Sacramento (45-33, eighth in West). This would be the third time in five years the Clippers and Mavericks faced off in the first round.

Clippers remaining games: at Suns, Suns, Jazz, Rockets

Mavericks remaining games: at Hornets, at Heat, Pistons, at Thunder

After beating the Heat (43-35, eighth in East) Sunday, the Pacers (45-34, sixth in East) are in prime position to keep the No. 6 seed or move up. They have a potentially massive game against the Cavs left. They also own tiebreakers over Philly (44-35, seventh in East) and Miami. Philly has one tough remaining opponent, but the Heat also get the Raptors (25-53, 12th in East) twice.

Pacers remaining games: at Raptors, at Cavs, Hawks

76ers remaining games: Pistons, Magic, Nets

Heat remaining games: at Hawks, Mavs, Raptors, Raptors

For much of the season, we’ve been looking to see if the Bucks can hold off the Cavs (46-33) for the second seed. Now, the Bucks have two other teams to worry about. Cleveland has actually dropped to fifth in the East, sitting 1.5 games behind Milwaukee. The Magic and Knicks are both 46-32, sitting just a game behind the Bucks. Milwaukee has the tiebreaker over New York. Tiebreakers with the Magic and Cavs must be determined, but the Bucks play Orlando two more times.

Bucks remaining games: Celtics, Magic, at Thunder, at Magic

Magic remaining games: at Rockets, at Bucks, at Sixers, Bucks

Knicks remaining games: at Bulls, at Celtics, Nets, Bulls

Cavaliers remaining games: Grizzlies, Pacers, Hornets

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets both sit at 54-24 with four games left to play. Minnesota still has the tiebreaker over Denver, and these two teams will play on Wednesday. That will likely determine who ends up with the No. 1 seed in the West, unless the Oklahoma City Thunder make a big push. They’re 53-25 and sit one game behind both teams, but OKC has the toughest remaining schedule of these three.

Wolves remaining games: Wizards, at Nuggets, Hawks, Suns

Nuggets remaining games: at Jazz, Wolves, at Spurs, at Grizzlies

Thunder remaining games: Kings, Spurs, Bucks, Mavs

Since tiebreakers are highly likely to come into play as this NBA season comes to a close, let's review them:

For two-team ties:

1. Head-to-head record.
2. Division winner (if applicable).
3. Division record (if teams in same division).
4. Conference record.
5. Record against playoff teams in their conference.
6. Record against playoff teams in the other conference.
7. Point differential.

For multi-team ties:

1. Division winner (if applicable).
2. Record in games among the tied teams.
3. Record in division games (if all teams are the same division).
4. Conference record.
5. Record against playoff teams in their conference.
6. Record against playoff teams in the other conference.
7. Point differential.