NBA playoffs predictions and play-in tournament schedule live updates: Bracket, odds, draft lottery and stats

One interesting note about tomorrow's game in Sacramento: the Pelicans have already gone 4-0 against the Kings this season, including two wins of 30-plus points and a 10-point win in the quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament on Dec. 4. Beating the same team five times in one season won't be easy. This game already has major stakes with the Kings also fighting to get themselves back in the race for the sixth seed. They've got two crucial games coming up at home with New Orleans on Thursday ... and Phoenix on Friday. It's safe to say the playoffs have already started among the teams fighting to avoid the Play-In. The outlook of the race might look drastically different after these next two nights at Golden 1 Center.

It was a struggle at certain points, but the Phoenix Suns just finished off a 124-108 win over a Los Angeles Clippers squad that was missing Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Ivica Zubac. With this win, the Suns improved to 47-33, which means the New Orleans Pelicans need a win over the Sacramento Kings tomorrow night to hold on to the No. 6 spot in the West. New Orleans is expected to be without Brandon Ingram once again after the team ruled him out in Wednesday's injury report due to a left knee bone contusion that cost him the last 10 games. But Ingram has progressed to playing 1-on-1 in practice so he could be close to making his return. The only games the Pelicans will have left in the regular season after Thursday night will be a back-to-back at Golden State on Friday and the season finale against the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday in New Orleans. Willie Green has said he hopes to get Ingram back before the end of the regular season. Getting him back in the lineup will be massive as the Pels hope to hold off the Suns and dodge the Play-In.

DENVER — On Tuesday night, The Athletic asked Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokić how important Wednesday night’s matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves would be.

Jokić shook his head and said the game that would likely determine the number one seed in the Western Conference wasn’t important at all.

“I don’t think it’s a really big game,” Jokić said after the Nuggets defeated the Utah Jazz. “Yes, we are going to go out there and play to win the game, of course. But I think people are just making their stories that it’s a big game. Hopefully, it’s going to be interesting.”

With all due respect to the best player in the league, the Nuggets played Wednesday night like it was a big game. Jokić turned in a masterpiece, in true big-game fashion. Michael Malone coached like it was a big game, going to his playoff-centric second unit that features Aaron Gordon playing at center, and shortening his rotations. Most of all, Denver’s execution, its ability to make shots and its ability to garner defensive stops all pointed to the Nuggets truly wanting this one.

The result was a 116-107 win over Minnesota before a charged sellout crowd at Ball Arena. And the further result is the Nuggets having the inside track to the top seed in the Western Conference, and the homecourt advantage through the Western Conference playoffs that will come with it. Because the West is so difficult as a conference, there are some drawbacks to this. The Dallas Mavericks are tracking as the No. 5 seed, and they are truly a dangerous team at this point. The Golden State Warriors or the Los Angeles Lakers ma

The Timberwolves have been confident all season that they match up well with Denver. The Nuggets do have a conundrum. They don't have a defender who can check Anthony Edwards.

They may need to put Aaron Gordon on Ant in hopes his strength and size can bother Edwards, but if that happens in the playoffs, things will open up for a healthy Karl-Anthony Towns.

It might be all about the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves battling for first place in the Western Conference on Wednesday night, but who remembers what Ty Lawson achieved on the same date in 2011?

The Nuggets guard made his first 10 3-pointers while scoring a career-high 37 points in leading the Nuggets to a 130-106 win over the Timberwolves.

Lawson became the first player in NBA history to start a game with 10 consecutive 3-point makes before finally missing on a 28-foot attempt as the third quarter ended. He finished 10 of 11 from behind the arc.

"Every time I threw it, it went in, except for that last one," Lawson said after his performance. "Even that last one I missed, I thought that one was going in."

The Hawks seemed to conclude that they couldn’t realistically get home court for the play-in game against Chicago and acted accordingly, playing their third string the entire fourth quarter and blowing a 15-point lead in a 115-114 loss to Charlotte.

The Bulls’ magic number for the 9th seed is now one, with Chicago still having games left against Detroit and Washington.

Trae Young returned from a finger injury on his left hand and had 14 points and 11 assists in 20 minutes while Dejounte Murray sat out. Atlanta will have two road games left against Minnesota and Indiana to close the regular season before the Hawks meet the Bulls in the Play-In next Wednesday.

Also notable: 19 points in 33 minutes for two-way wing Vit Krejci, who has claimed a rotation spot but must be signed to the active roster before Sunday to be eligible for the postseason, including Play-In games.

We have a postseason series locked in: the Dallas Mavericks won on the road against the Miami Heat, clinching the Southwest Division Title and locking them in a 4-5 matchup with the LA Clippers.

The Clippers need one more win or one more Dallas loss to clinch the 4-seed. With the Clippers playing a 5th game in 7 days, they are holding out Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook Wednesday night against the Phoenix Suns. They will look to clinch the 4-seed Friday night against a Utah Jazz team that will be hosting the Rockets in the Mountain Time Zone Thursday night.

As someone who watches the Wizards rather intently with our Josh Robbins, if you had told me a year ago that the most impactful person traded from the 2022-23 Washington team wasn’t going to be Bradley Beal — or that Beal wouldn’t even be the second-most impactful person traded — I would have said you were crazy. But can anyone argue that Daniel Gafford has been a godsend for the Mavericks at both ends of the floor since Dallas acquired him from the Wizards at the trade deadline?

Or that Kristaps Porzingis hasn’t been even more impactful this season in Boston? Beal’s injuries this season have obviously impacted his play, and perhaps it’s thus not fair to compare his season with KP’s or Gafford’s. But, man, does fit matter. Remember, the Mavs wanted Kyle Kuzma from Washington, and Kuzma basically vetoed the trade. So Dallas pivoted to Gafford from the Wizards and P.J. Washington from Charlotte.

Dallas is dangerous in the West. Dangerous.

If you were not watching the game between the Toronto Raptors and the Brooklyn Nets tonight, A.) that’s understandable; and B.) congratulations, you have avoided a really strange fate. Of the eight games on the schedule, this was the only one that had no potential to impact playoff or Play-In seeding. It would have been weird if you tuned in unless you were, like, related to one of the players.

However, it ended up providing some drama for fans of the Raptors, who have been eliminated from playoff contention for quite some time. To explain why, we are going to have to go on a bit of a journey. Get comfortable.

• When the Raptors traded for Jakob Poeltl in February 2023, they traded a 2024 first-round pick that was protected through the first six selections (among other things and Khem Birch) to the San Antonio Spurs. If the pick is not transferred to the Spurs this year, the same protections exist in 2025 and 2026. If it does not convey by then, it turns into two second-round picks.
• The Raptors entered the game with a 25-54 record, the sixth-worst mark in the league. If they finish in that slot, they would have a 45.8 percent chance of keeping their pick following the draft lottery in May. The Memphis Grizzlies are the team ahead of the Raptors, at 27-53 after losing in Cleveland. They do not appear intent on winning against the Lakers on Friday or the Nuggets on Sunday, either.
• If the Raptors finish with the same or better record as the Grizzlies, the odds of keeping their pick — which, because of the weak draft, might not even be a good thing, depending on who you ask — would get worse. Basically, going 1-2 or 0-3 in their last three games would assure the Raptors of finishing with a worse record than Memphis. The Raptors finish the season with two games in Miami.
• The Raptors were playing without the injured Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl, Chris Boucher, Gary Trent Jr. and Bruce Brown. They also have kept RJ Barrett out of back-to-backs since suffering a knee injury earlier in the year, and rested Kelly Olynyk. The Nets, uninspiring as they might be, were playing something approaching their regular lineup.

And then a funny thing happened: The Raptors were not only hanging around, but up by a possession or two for much of the second half. Meanwhile, the Heat were getting smacked by the Mavericks, making it possible that they would have nothing to play for in the season finale on Sunday, as they could be locked into the eighth seed for the start of the Play-In Tournament. If the Raptors won in Brooklyn, they could have been in a scenario in which they were playing an unmotivated team on Sunday, with a win hurting their odds of keeping their pick. However, even if you rest a lot of players, it is not as if you can go out and tell the guys that are playing not to try to win. (Well, you can, but it would be weird.)

Immanuel Quickley made a 3 to give the Raptors a one-point lead with 50 seconds remaining, but ex-Raptor Dennis Schröder got those points back with a layup and a foul. The Raptors turned it over on the next possession, and looked to be forced into fouling and hoping for Brooklyn to miss some free throws. But no: Garrett Temple, the subject of a profile from yours truly today, ripped the ball from Noah Clowney’s hands, and went the other way, looking to tie the game. Alas, Clowney made up for the gaffe, blocking the layup attempt. The Nets wound up winning 106-102.

As it is, one loss will guarantee the Raptors finish sixth in the reverse standings. Crisis averted — or not, depending, again, on who you ask.

The Cavs simply could not lose to the Memphis Hustle, a halftime deficit be damned.

Most of the Grizzlies you've heard of were out (didn't even make the trip), but the Cavs had to overcome a three-point Memphis lead at the break to win, 110-98.

The win puts the Cavs ahead of Orlando for the moment in fourth place in the East, 1/2 game behind the New York Knicks. Donovan Mitchell led Cleveland with 29 points and Caris LeVert added 18 off the bench. Memphis received a career-high 34 points from Jake LaRavia.

The Cavs have a huge showdown Friday against the Indiana Pacers, who are just a game behind Cleveland in the standings.

Dear New York Knicks, Milwaukee Bucks, Orlando Magic and Indiana Pacers:

The Memphis Grizzlies are not your friend. Here is their injury report for tonight's huge game against the Cavaliers. Well, not huge for the Grizzlies, who are finished, but for the East:

• Santi Aldama
• Desmond Bane
• Brandon Clarke
• Jaren Jackson Jr.
• Luke Kennard
• John Konchar
• Jakle LaRavia
• Ja Morant (hurt/suspended for most of the year)
• Derrick Rose
• Marcus Smart (hurt for a while)
• Yuta Watanabe
• Vince Williams Jr.
• Ziaire Williams

The Milwaukee Bucks have released a medical update on Giannis Antetokounmpo. He will miss the remaining three games of the regular season.

"Antetokounmpo underwent an MRI last night that confirmed the diagnosis of a left soleus (calf) strain," the team announced. "Anteteokounmpo will miss the remaining three games of the regular season and receive daily treatment and evaluation."

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets are both tied for the best record in the Western Conference (55-24). Both are sitting one game ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder (54-25). And tonight, the Wolves and Nuggets play for the fourth time this season. The winner will likely take the No. 1 seed in the West, so we're bringing in Wolves reporter Jon Krawczynski to ask three tough questions about this matchup.

Question: The Wolves just won in Denver almost two weeks ago. What is the key to replicating that game tonight?

Krawczynski: First of all, not having it be the second night of a road back-to-back in that elevation. But they played Denver tough under similar circumstances — but at home — without Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid on March 19 and only lost by three points, so a tight one is definitely in play tonight. The Wolves just seem to match up well with the Nuggets. No one can stop Nikola Jokić, but the array of bigs they can throw at him at least makes him work for what he can get. Reid surprisingly played him really well in Denver a couple of weeks ago, with Gobert serving as a help defender and daring Aaron Gordon to make shots. It's a strategy that has bothered the Nuggets, and I'm sure we will see the Wolves try again tonight. If they are their usual defensive selves and get some shot-making from Anthony Edwards, they'll be in good shape.

Question: Why have the Wolves been successful (2-1) against the Nuggets so far this season?

Krawczynski: A lot of the above applies, but let's focus on one pretty big factor: Edwards. If the 22-year-old has a weakness, it is not taking lesser opponents seriously. You will see him goof around against Washington or Charlotte or Portland, but he has a deep respect for the Nuggets. He wants to beat them. The intensity is generally there from the start, and the Nuggets don't really have an answer for him on defense. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope usually gets most of the work, but Edwards is too strong for him. Now, he is seeing the floor as well, making the simple but devastating pass much earlier. It makes him so hard to guard. When you have a star like that and a defense that never quits, it's a tough combination.

Question: Do you think the Wolves need that No. 1 seed more than Denver or OKC?

Krawczynski: They definitely need it more than Denver. The Nuggets know exactly who they are and exactly what they have to do to get to the Finals. They can win at home or on the road. The Wolves can't act like they've been there before because they have not been there before. They're trying to get out of the first round of the playoffs for just the second time in the franchise's 35-year history. Even their vets, Gobert and Conley, have not had a ton of success in the playoffs. OKC is similarly unproven, but the team just seems to have a poise about itself late in games. The Wolves are more excitable. They defend better at home and have turned Target Center into a rowdy environment. Having homecourt throughout the Western Conference playoffs would be a big benefit for them.

Read today's edition of The Bounce, The Athletic's daily NBA newsletter.

For a moment, the Milwaukee Bucks had found their joy once again. They played with that joy throughout the rest of the second quarter while taking a 20-point lead into the half against the Boston Celtics. And they kept that joy as they held onto their lead in the third quarter.

But when Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks' two-time MVP and seven-time All-NBA forward, collapsed without contact with another player at 3:40 in the third quarter, that joy disappeared.

As the Bucks have proven throughout this season, joy is fleeting.

"The first feeling is 'Oh shoot, it's my teammate's down. Game plan. Game plan. OK, he’s down, is he OK? OK, game plan,'" Bucks forward Thanasis Antetokounmpo said after Tuesday's game. "My second feeling is like 'Oh my God, that’s my baby brother on the floor. What’s going on?'

"Just hoping it's nothing crazy. Usually — you know how we’re built — for us, it's OK, he’s down, come back. When you see the other person can't come back, which is very rare for us not to be able to come back because we will fight through everything, and we'll live with what we have.

"It's hard. That's the hardest part because then you know it's kind of, a little bit serious. There's a frustration part from that side. The good part is like, we got the game, we won, and we're building good habits, especially against that team."

On Wednesday morning, The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported that Antetokounmpo avoided damage to his left Achilles tendon, a best-case scenario for the Bucks. That doesn't change the precarious position the Bucks find themselves in. Not only will the Bucks need Antetokounmpo to return and play well after an injury, but the Bucks have run out of regular season reps for their big three of Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton to get acclimated playing with each other under head coach Doc Rivers.

Read more here.