NBA playoffs predictions and play-in tournament schedule live updates: Bracket, odds, draft lottery and stats

The NBA postseason and draft lottery order is set after a final day of the season that saw many seeds change.
Mike Prada, John Hollinger and more
NBA playoffs predictions and play-in tournament schedule live updates: Bracket, odds, draft lottery and stats
Tyler Kaufman / Getty Images

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It took 82 games and five extra minutes to decide the second-best team in the Eastern Conference, and a playoff team with nothing to gain Sunday helped a first-place team out West emerge.

On an unprecedented final day of the regular season for the NBA, with more up for grabs in both conferences at game No. 82 than at any point in the league’s 77-year history, the New York Knicks defeated the Chicago Bulls in overtime 120-119 to claim second in the East.

And in the West, with the Oklahoma City Thunder beating the entirely depleted Dallas Mavericks 135-86, the Thunder emerged from a three-way tie with the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves to claim the No. 1 seed. With an average age of just under 24 years old, OKC is the youngest team to earn a No. 1 seed in league history.

Here are the matchups:

Play-In Tournament

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

  • (8) Heat at (7) 76ers — 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
  • (10) Hawks at (9) Bulls — 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

FRIDAY

  • EAST: Hawks/Bulls winner at Heat/76ers loser — TBD, ESPN
  • WEST: Warriors/Kings winner at Lakers/Pelicans loser — TBD, TNT

Playoffs

SERIES BEGINNING ON SATURDAY (all times TBD)

  • (2) Knicks vs. (7) Heat/76ers winner
  • (4) Cavaliers vs. (5) Magic
  • (3) Timberwolves vs. (6) Suns
  • (2) Nuggets vs. (7) Lakers/Pelicans winner

SERIES BEGINNING ON SUNDAY (all times TBD)

  • (1) Celtics vs. (8) East Play-In winner
  • (3) Bucks vs. (6) Pacers
  • (1) Thunder vs. (8) West Play-In winner
  • (4) Clippers vs. (5) Mavericks

Read more here.

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Wild NBA regular season ends with a thriller in New York, blowouts and Thunder atop West

GO FURTHER

Wild NBA regular season ends with a thriller in New York, blowouts and Thunder atop West

The other big story tonight in the West, where Minnesota and Denver play in a game that likely determines the conference's top seed. The Wolves have a tiebreak over the Nuggets but the teams are tied in the standings and will each be favored in their final two games. Still lurking is Oklahoma City, who could pilfer the top seed if they win out and the Nuggets beat Minnesota on Wednesday, but lose in San Antonio on Friday.

Not all is lost for Oklahoma City if Minnesota wins, as the Thunder could win out and claim the second seed in that scenario, kicking the Nuggets down to third.

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Suns may be in trouble after loss to Clippers

One other big game tonight is the rematch of the Clippers' rout of Phoenix, this time in Los Angeles. The Clips are locked into a 4-5 matchup with Dallas, but another loss for Phoenix would almost certainly banish the Suns to the Play-In Tournament. Phoenix is a game behind New Orleans already and doesn't have the tiebreak.

With three difficult games remaining against the Clippers, Kings and Wolves — all on the road — Phoenix also needs to start sweating its rearview mirror. Believe it or not, Golden State's win over the Lakers last night means it’s still possible for the Suns to finish 10th (!) if the Warriors win out and the Lakers win at least once. Phoenix losing all three of these games is possible, especially if the Wolves still have a top seed to play for on Sunday.

Golden State’s win over the Lakers — aided by a record-setting 3-point hailstorm from Steph Curry (expected) and Draymond Green and Gary Payton (unexpected) — not only paves the way for the Warriors to host the Lakers in the Play-In game if they win out, but also provides a semi-realistic pathway to move up to eighth should one of the Kings or Suns falter. The Warriors move up if they win out and either the Kings lose twice, or Phoenix or New Orleans loses three times.

Sacramento lost on Tuesday as well, and the Kings should also be hearing footsteps. With two difficult games still left against Phoenix and New Orleans – albeit both at home – it's still possible for Kings to land 10th with 46 wins. Tiebreaks against Golden State and the Lakers offer a bit of insulation. This is also a big item of interest for Atlanta fans, as the Hawks own the Kings' top-14 protected first-round pick.

New Orleans can't breathe easy either with three tough games still remaining, but last night's results couldn’t have gone better for them. There are scenarios where the Pelicans lose all three games and still get an automatic playoff spot up the sixth seed, though they probably shouldn't test that path out.

The East could have maximum chaos

The East could have maximum chaos

Benny Sieu / USA Today

After a 14-game Tuesday extravaganza, we have "just" eight tonight, a couple of which have relatively huge implications. And man, did some stuff happen. We had a Giannis Antetokounmpo injury, a Suns meltdown, a Warriors 3-point hailstorm and more. But let's start in the East:

The combination of Milwaukee beating Boston, Orlando losing to Houston and the Antetokounmpo injury sets the stage for two very interesting situations. The first: A potential MAXIMUM CHAOS scenario in the Eastern Conference, where four teams could plausibly end up tied at 49-33.

That seemed rather unlikely until the moment when Giannis toppled over. With him likely to be out for the remainder of the regular season, Orlando’s odd of sweeping its two remaining games against Milwaukee — the first of which is tonight — suddenly tilt from "so you’re saying there's a chance" to "whoa, this could happen." Orlando winning out, Cleveland winning its three remaining home games, Milwaukee beating Oklahoma City on Friday and New York losing once of its final three games would leave all four teams tied.

If that happened, Orlando would win the tiebreaker and be the second seed in the East. New York would be third and Cleveland — the Central division winner — would be fourth and face Milwaukee.

Of course, the Knicks could also win out and claim the second seed for themselves if the Bucks lose twice. Or, the Cavs could lose to Indiana on Friday and fall all the way to sixth.

Or … how about the second crazy scenario where the Bucks lose their final three games (at Oklahoma City and the two against Orlando). In that scenario, it's possible for Milwaukee to fall all the way to sixth in the East, and Indiana would control its own destiny to be the Central Division champion and seeded as high as fourth.

After a meaningful 14-game Tuesday slate, here are the updated NBA standings and postseason matchups:

EAST

  1. Boston Celtics: 62-17
  2. Milwaukee Bucks: 48-31
  3. New York Knicks: 47-32
  4. Orlando Magic: 46-33
  5. Cleveland Cavaliers: 46-33
  6. Indiana Pacers: 46-34
  7. Philadelphia 76ers: 45-35
  8. Miami Heat: 44-35
  9. Chicago Bulls: 37-42
  10. Atlanta Hawks: 36-43

WEST

  1. Minnesota Timberwolves: 55-24
  2. Denver Nuggets: 55-24
  3. Oklahoma City Thunder: 54-25
  4. LA Clippers: 50-28
  5. Dallas Mavericks: 49-30
  6. New Orleans Pelicans: 47-32
  7. Phoenix Suns: 46-33
  8. Sacramento Kings: 45-34
  9. Los Angeles Lakers: 45-35
  10. Golden State Warriors: 44-35

Play-In Tournament

  • Heat at 76ers, winner to face Bucks
  • Kings at Suns, winner to face Nuggets
  • Hawks at Bulls, loser eliminated
  • Warriors at Lakers, loser eliminated
  • Hawks-Bulls winner at Heat-76ers loser, winner to face Celtics
  • Warriors-Lakers winner at Kings-Suns loser, winner to face Timberwolves

Playoff matchups

(1) Celtics vs. (8) Play-In winner

(2) Bucks vs. (7) Heat/76ers

(3) Knicks vs. (6) Pacers

(4) Magic vs. (5) Cavaliers

(1) Timberwolves vs. (8) Play-In winner

(2) Nuggets vs. (7) Suns/Kings winner

(3) Thunder vs. (6) Pelicans

(4) Clippers vs. (5) Mavericks

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Giannis Antetokounmpo avoids serious injury, but likely to miss time: Sources

Giannis Antetokounmpo avoids serious injury, but likely to miss time: Sources

Stacy Revere / Getty Images

Giannis Antetokounmpo has avoided damage to his left Achilles tendon — a best-case outcome — and his return to play is based on treatment and rehab response for a strained calf, league sources tell The Athletic. Calves are undeniably tricky, and these type of strains have timetable of at least one-to-two weeks. But rehab will determine a length of time for the two-time NBA MVP.

The New Orleans Pelicans handled business after a slow start in Portland and rolled to a 110-100 win over the Trail Blazers. With the Suns' loss to the Clippers tonight, the Pels (47-32) jumped up to the sixth spot in the West and moved two games ahead of the eighth-seeded Kings.

New Orleans also owns the tiebreaker over the Kings, who host the Pels on Thursday. If New Orleans wins its final three games of the regular season (at Kings, at Warriors and vs Lakers), the No. 6 seed will belong to them.

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The LA Clippers were able to hold on despite losing 30 points of a 37-point lead, clinching a playoff spot with a 105-92 lead in Phoenix.

The Clippers are locked into the 4-5 matchup after wins by Oklahoma City, Denver, and Minnesota tonight. One more win by the Clippers clinched home court in the first round.

Warriors nab critical win over Lakers

Warriors nab critical win over Lakers

Adam Pantozzi / NBAE via Getty Images

The Golden State Warriors beat the Los Angeles Lakers to move to 44-35. They clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker over LA (45-35) and now control their own destiny for ninth seed. If they beat the Trail Blazers, Pelicans and Jazz this week, they will finish ahead of the Lakers. With two Kings losses or three Pelicans or Suns losses this week, the Warriors can climb into eighth place with 3-0 finish.

Anthony Edwards on the Timberwolves' showdown with Denver tomorrow night, which will go a long way toward deciding the West's No. 1 seed.

"I think everyone know what is at stake, I don't even need to talk about how big it is. Everybody know."

Kirby Lee / USA Today

Yes, Draymond Green hit five first-half 3-pointers against the Lakers.

The last time he made at least 5 threes in a game was in 2017. He went 5-for-6 in a blowout win against Chicago.

This was the 15th time in his career he's made at least five 3-pointers. His career-high is eight threes in a game, set in Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals.

Usually, Green hitting three 3-pointers spells doom for the opponent. The Warriors entered Tuesday’s game 61-10 when Green makes 3 or more.

They lost earlier this year with Green making 4-of-8 from 3. That game, he made them all in the first half. The Warriors would later squander a big lead and lose in the final seconds. It snapped a 10-game Warriors win streak when Green makes at least three.

The Denver Nuggets defeat the Utah Jazz 111-95. For Denver, this sets up a monstrous matchup against Minnesota tomorrow night at Ball Arena, with the winner likely taking the West's No. 1 seed. For Utah, this is a 13th consecutive loss.

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Here is an exchange I had with Bucks point guard Damian Lillard, who strained his right soleus muscle in his calf at the start of last season. Lillard's teammate, Giannis Antetokounmpo, left tonight's game with a left soleus strain.

When I googled soleus strains in the NBA, I saw that...

"I did it last year."

So, I was going to ask you, what did it feel like?

"That s--- hurt. It hurt. And it makes sense. Usually I'm able to walk things off, I feel like I have a high pain tolerance. When I did it, I started to walk, (but) it wasn't just that it was that painful, it was that the muscle just can't handle it. So, I think once it calmed down, you kind of figured out a way to limp around it, but it's a weird feeling. But hearing that, I know, I know that feeling. And also as somebody who experienced that — if that's what it is — that's also encouraging.

Is that something you were able to rehab pretty quickly? Or did you need to take some time off of it first?

When I did it, I strained my calf, and then I came back after like, I'd probably say, eight or nine days, I came back from the calf. And then I strained, I had the soleus injury like right after I came back. I think it was like a game or two after I came back, I did my soleus. And then after that, it was like two weeks. For me, it was like two weeks and then I came back and played.

Steph Curry's spotty road history vs. Lakers

Steph Curry's spotty road history vs. Lakers

Andrew D. Bernstein / NBAE via Getty Images

The last time the Warriors, who beat the host Lakers on March 16, won back-to-back games at Crypto.com Arena was 2019. It was the final season of the Kevin Durant tenure in Golden State. But the Lakers didn't have LeBron James for either of those games. He was out after sustaining an injury on Christmas Day against the Warriors, and Anthony Davis was still a New Orleans Pelican.

Take out the LeBron-less wins, and the Warriors' last back-to-back road wins against the Lakers came in 2017 — that window between the Kobe Bryant and LeBron James eras. The Warriors followed a Nov. 29 overtime win at then-Staples Center with a Dec. 18 overtime win in Los Angeles.

That Lakers' squad? Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Julius Randle, Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Clarkson, with 24-year-old Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and 29-year-old Brook Lopez as veterans.

One of the reasons for the Warriors' struggles: Steph Curry doesn't shoot it well, traditionally, in this arena. With Steve Kerr as his coach since the start of the championship era, Curry has played 18 road games against the Lakers, including last year's playoffs. He averaged 22.6 points on 41.2 percent shooting. He made just 52-of-177 from three-point range (29.4 percent).

Conversely, in Curry's 18 games in the same time frame, in the same building, but against the Clippers, he averaged 26.7 points on 49.5 percent shooting. He made 73-of-179 from deep (40.8 percent).

Curry's best games on the road against the Lakers came against Kobe. Curry has topped 30 just seven times in this building against the Lakers, three of them against the Kobe Lakers. Those three games are the only times Curry has made 5 threes or more. Curry's biggest hame ever against the Lakers in this building: April 12, 2013. He scored 47, making nine threes in a two-point loss. He almost made the greatest shot of his life that game, his buzzer-beating beating heave from about 80 feet banked off the glass before rimming out.

The Orlando Magic (46-33) may have squandered a golden opportunity to get the East's No. 2 seed after losing 118-106 to the eliminated Houston Rockets on the road. Orlando still might get there if it wins out, since two of those games are against the Bucks, who now may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo due to a calf injury. But the Rockets had nothing to play for, so this loss stings.

The Knicks (47-32) move up to the No. 3 seed temporarily after defeating the Chicago Bulls 128-117. But New York would lose tiebreakers to Orlando and Milwaukee.

Gut-punch loss for the Sacramento Kings (45-34) in Oklahoma City tonight to close a disheartening 1-3 road trip. They led by 20 in the first half, but went ice cold, scoring 23 in the third quarter and 18 in the fourth, watching the Thunder slowly walk them down and eventually beat them 112-105. Earlier in the trip, they led by one in Boston, but lost on an Xavier Tillman floater.

Had those results flipped, the Kings would have the inside track for the sixth seed. Instead, they wobble home without the injured Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk trying to avoid falling into the 9 vs. 10 side of the Play-In Tournament. They have a huge home back-to-back on Thursday and Friday night against the Pelicans and Suns, the two teams directly ahead of them in the standings, so a climb up is still possible. But a tumble back is also possible, depending on how the Warriors-Lakers game finishes.

The Warriors can leap past the Kings if they go 4-0 this week and Sacramento loses two of its final three.

The LA Clippers took a 31-point lead in the first quarter tonight in Phoenix. They clinch a playoff spot with a win, and they're doing their part, holding Suns to 2-of-19 shooting from the field in the opening quarter.

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Anthony Edwards scores 51 as Timberwolves survive Wizards

Timberwolves 130, Wizards 121

It wasn't always pretty, but the Wolves (55-24) got it done to set up a HUGE game tomorrow night in Denver. against the Nuggets

Anthony Edwards: 51 points, 7 assists in 38 minutes

Rudy Gobert: 19 points, 16 rebounds, 38 minutes

Nickiel Alexander-Walker: 23 points

Mike Conley: 15 points (all 5 3s in the second half)

Things are going about as well as the Pelicans could've hoped so far today as they continue to battle for the 6th seed. Sacramento lost to OKC. Phoenix is currently down 28-4 against the LA Clippers. And the Lakers, who are without Anthony Davis tonight, are down double digits against the Warriors. If the Pels handle business tonight against the Blazers and the Kings/Suns/Lakers all lose, NOLA would move up to the 6th seed and they'd be two games up on Sacramento going into Thursday's game against the Kings.

Heat survive Hawks, but face uphill climb to move up

Heat survive Hawks, but face uphill climb to move up

Well, the Heat survived, as they are wont to do at this time of year.

Miami needing double overtime to dispatch the Atlanta Hawks, 117-109, is not ideal. The Heat, who are trying to catch Philadelphia for seventh place and perhaps even the Pacers for sixth, have to fly back to Miami for another game Wednesday against the surging Dallas Mavericks.

The two silver linings: The Mavericks also played Tuesday, and the Heat could've lost Tuesday and didn't. But Miami will likely need to win all three of its remaining games and get some help to move out of eighth in the East.

The Sixers won their game Tuesday, beating Detroit, and the Pacers dumped the Raptors. So as things stand, Indiana (46-34) holds a 1-game lead over Philadelphia (45-35) for sixth, while Miami (44-35) is barely behind both.

The Heat have three games left, all at home, beginning Wednesday with Dallas followed by Friday and Sunday games against the Raptors. The Sixers are also at home the rest of the way, with a huge game Friday against Orlando and then a season finisher against Brooklyn. The Pacers have to go to Cleveland – Indiana trails the Cavs by just one half game for fifth in the East – and then hosts the Hawks Sunday.

Tyler Herro, just back from an extended absence because of injury, led Miami with 33 points against Atlanta. Joel Embiid was the Sixers' high man with 37 points against Detroit, and the Pacers' best was Tyrese Haliburton with 30 points against Toronto.

As the three jockey for position, it is likely two of them will face each other in the 7-8 Play-In game. The winner of that game could well face Milwaukee (if the Bucks hold onto the second seed), and we don't right now if Giannis Antetokounmpo suffered a major injury Tuesday night.

If he did, that matchup picks up a lot more appeal. Remember, the Heat, fought their way through the Play-In last year and beat the Bucks as a 1 seed in the first-round of the playoffs. Miami, of course, fought all the way into the Finals.

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