Play-in? No. 5 seed? Explaining all the Heat’s seeding scenarios for final day of regular season
The Miami Heat enters the final day of the regular season with a lot to play for and a lot to pray for.
With Friday night’s 125-103 blowout win over the Toronto Raptors at Kaseya Center, the Heat’s hopes of avoiding the NBA’s play-in tournament remain alive. But the Heat is going to need to earn another win over the Raptors in Sunday’s regular-season finale in Miami (1 p.m., Bally Sports Sun) and some help from other teams to crack the top six in the Eastern Conference and steer clear of the play-in tourney.
Heat earns win over Raptors to keep hopes of avoiding play-in alive. Takeaways and details
The Heat currently sits in eighth place in the East at 45-36, one game behind the fourth-place Orlando Magic, fifth-place Indiana Pacers and sixth-place Philadelphia 76ers. The Magic, Pacers and 76ers all hold a 46-35 record.
The Heat is guaranteed to finish the regular season no worse than No. 8 in the East, but can also climb as high as No. 5 in the conference if multiple results break Miami’s way on Sunday. But Heat coach Erik Spoelstra and his players insists they stopped keeping track of the race after hitting a late-season rough patch.
“I’m focused on my team,” Spoelstra said, with the Heat dropping three of its last five games before routing the struggling Raptors on Friday. “All I’m focused on is we get to a place where we’re connected and playing for each other and playing a spirited game where it’s to our identity. That’s all I care about right now. Because when we get to that, we feel like we can beat anybody anywhere anytime.”
The Heat may need to beat a team in the play-in tournament to make the playoffs for the second straight season. The play-in tourney features the seventh-through-10th-place teams competing for the final two playoff seeds in each conference.
The Heat qualified for the playoffs as the East’s No. 8 seed through the play-in tournament last season on the way to making an improbable run to the NBA Finals before losing in the championship series to the Denver Nuggets. The Heat wants to make another unexpected run to the NBA Finals this season, but ideally would avoid the play-in this time.
“We’re not talking a lot about it,” Heat forward Nikola Jovic said of the different postseason seeding scenarios. “I feel like you just got to go day by day. We got to keep working on our game and not worry about who’s going to be the opponent until we know who it is. It was important to win this one [Friday] and the next one [Sunday], for sure. Then whatever happens happens.”
With no NBA games on Saturday and all 30 teams playing on Sunday, here’s what has to happen on the final day of the regular season for the Heat to finish in the East’s top six and avoid the play-in tournament (all East games will start at 1 p.m. on Sunday):
▪ The Heat needs to earn another win over the Raptors, while the Magic loses its regular-season finale against Milwaukee Bucks in Orlando. But that’s not all, the 76ers also need to lose at home in their regular-season finale against the Brooklyn Nets. In this scenario, the Heat, Magic and 76ers would all finish with 36 losses and the Heat would win the three-way tie because it would win the Southeast Division based on holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Magic (Heat won regular-season series over the Magic 3-1). The Heat would be the No. 6 seed because the division winner wins a tie with teams that don’t win their division.
OR
▪ The Heat needs to earn another win over the Raptors, while the Magic loses its regular-season finale against the Bucks and the Pacers drop their regular-season finale against the Atlanta Hawks in Indianapolis. In this scenario, the Heat, Magic and Pacers would all finish with 36 losses and the Heat would also win this three-way tie because it would be the only division winner in the group based on holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Magic.
OR
▪ The Heat defeats the Raptors, the Magic loses to the Bucks, the Pacers fall to the Hawks and the 76ers lose to the Nets. In this scenario, all four teams would finish with 36 losses. The Heat would win this four-way tie because it would be the only division winner in the group based on holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Magic, entering the playoffs as the East’s No. 5 seed.
If none of these three scenarios happen, the Heat will be part of the play-in tournament for the second straight season. How is the play-in tournament structured?
The seventh-place team in each conference hosts the eighth-place team in a play-in game on Tuesday (would be Wednesday at 7 p.m. if the game is in Philadelphia because the NHL’s Philadelphia Flyers close their regular season at Wells Fargo Center on Tuesday night). The winner of this matchup earns the conference’s No. 7 playoff seed.
The ninth-place team in each conference hosts the 10th-place team in another play-in game on Wednesday. The loser of this matchup is eliminated from playoff contention, while the winner of this matchup goes on the road to take on the loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game on Friday for the right to the conference’s No. 8 playoff seed.
If play-in tournament-bound, the Heat would be in the East’s No. 7 vs. No. 8 game. If the current standings hold, the Heat would be headed for Philadelphia to take on Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and the 76ers in that play-in game as the East’s eighth-place team.
But there are a few scenarios that could play out Sunday for the Heat to close the regular season at seventh place to host the first play-in game:
▪ The Heat earns a win over the Raptors and the 76ers lose to the Nets. In this scenario, the Heat and 76ers would both finish with 36 losses. But the Heat would finish as the East’s No. 7 seed ahead of the No. 8 76ers because it would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of having a better conference record than Philadelphia. The Heat would host the 76ers in the East’s No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game. *In this scenario, the Magic would win Sunday to stay in the top six.
OR
▪ The Heat gets a win over the Raptors and the Magic loses to the Bucks. In this scenario, the Heat and Magic would both close the regular season with 36 losses. But the Heat would finish as the division winner and the East’s No. 7 seed based on holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Magic. The Heat would host the Magic in the East’s No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game. *In this scenario, the 76ers and Pacers would both win Sunday to finish in the top six.
If none of these aforementioned scenarios happen, the Heat will finish the regular season as the East’s eighth-place team and be on the road for the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game against either the Magic, Pacers or 76ers. These are Sunday’s results that would lead to a road play-in game for the Heat:
▪ A Heat loss to the Raptors
OR
▪ Wins by the Magic and 76ers
Whatever happens on Sunday, the current list of potential first-round playoff opponents for the Heat is down to four teams: the Boston Celtics, Bucks, New York Knicks or Cleveland Cavaliers.
But the Heat only wants to focus on one team Sunday — itself.
“We’re just going to take it one game at a time,” Heat center Bam Adebayo said. “We’re going to play Sunday and then we’ll figure out the rest.”
INJURY REPORT
The Heat ruled out Terry Rozier (neck spasms) and Josh Richardson (season-ending right shoulder surgery) for Sunday’s regular-season finale.
But the Heat upgraded Duncan Robinson (left facet syndrome) to questionable. Robinson has missed the last three games with his back injury.
