UFC 300 is finally here after what feels like an eternity of boring warehouse fights. Since the first fight for this event was announced, calendars were highlighted and any other plans were canceled.
A trio of title fights sit at the top of the card, but it’s not only the title fights that are the drawing power of this event. 12 former or current champions, the most ranked fighters on a card ever, record holders plastered throughout, I really could go on.
Although in this piece I will offer only my main card predictions – we had a great week of predictions last week – I want to quickly touch on the frighteningly stacked prelims.
Kayla Harrison makes her long-awaited UFC debut against former champion, Holly Holm, in what seems a really tough out for ‘The Preachers Daughter’. I envision a fairytale start to Harrison’s UFC tenure.
Cody Garbrandt opens up the night in a bantamweight bout against Deiveson Figueiredo in a truly fascinating matchup, four years in the making. ‘God Of War’s’ volume and variability will likely be the edge in this fight, and I see him adding himself to the 135lb title picture with a win.
Oh yes, and Dana White announced at the press conference on Thursday that the post-fight bonuses were being upped to $300,000. I’m not predicting anything but finishes.
With there being too many stupidly good matchups on the prelims, shall we just get straight into the main card predictions? Come on then.
Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill – Light Heavyweight Title Fight
The main event is one that was kind of snuffed upon when it was first announced, and that is because of the sheer volume of terrific fights on the entire card. But that’s why I’m kind of ok with this being the main event because it’s not even the fight I’m most excited about.
Jamahal Hill is returning from a career-ending Achilles injury which has forced him out for just over a year. The biggest question mark I have about this is whether ‘Sweetdreams’ is definitely at 100%. I better not ask Jamahal that because he may come for me.
Alex Pereira has shown clear holes in his MMA game since his maiden voyage, but he hasn’t really had too much of a reason to rectify that. If Hill actually decides to expose the Brazilian’s lack of a ground game, then it could be comfortable for Hill.
For some reason though, I find myself doubting the fight IQ of the 32-year-old.
After eating a few big shots early, I think Hill will have no choice other than to try and take the fight to the ground, and whether he sets it up well enough will be the deciding factor in this one.
I have to bank on the fact that he will successfully get the fight to the ground and will finish the fight with ground-and-pound, and will therefore reclaim the 205lb strap that he never lost.
Prediction: Jamahal Hill TKO
Zhang Weili vs Yan Xiaonan – Strawweight Title Fight
The only issue with this fight is that it isn’t taking place in China.
This was the perfect excuse for the promotion to head back to Asia and put on one of the biggest women’s MMA fights, of all time.
Alas, we have it as the UFC 300 co-main event, and unfortunately, because of how one-sided I see this bout playing out, I can’t say I’m too excited about it. Zhang Weili has been so extremely dominant over her last three fights, showcasing the different parts of her game.
Yan Xiaonan is a worthy contender, but I don’t think she possesses the skills to make this a tough night in the office for the 34-year-old champion.
‘Magnum’ Weili holds the advantage in both the striking and the ground game, and if she decides to take this fight to the ground, I could see her scoring a submission win. Despite that, I think it will play out on the feet, where Weili will likely be able to coast for five rounds.
Prediction: Zhang Weili submission
Justin Gaethje vs Max Holloway – ‘BMF’ Title Fight
This might be one of the most perfect fights of all time. It has all of the ingredients to be one of the greatest MMA fights, ever. And that isn’t an exaggeration.
Both fighters are the sheer epitome of ‘BMF’, with this being one of the only occasions I don’t mind seeing the silver gimmick belt.
This fight is just a car crash waiting to happen, in the best way possible. Justin Gaethje mentioned at the UFC 300 media day this past Wednesday that he ‘doesn’t usually plan on being alive the day after’ his fights, and if that doesn’t get you hyped up, I don’t know what will.
‘The Highlight’ has the task of cracking the granite chin of Max Holloway, with ‘Blessed’ having never even been knocked down in his storied career. Gaethje has the tools to crack granite though.
Gaethje has been sparring with Cory Sandhagen in the lead-up to this fight, and you might not find a more perfect body to emulate the Hawaiian.
Despite Gaethje’s power being a key advantage in this fight, I think Holloway’s durability and incisive volume will be the defining factor, making him the new ‘BMF’ in the UFC.
Prediction: Max Holloway TKO
Charles Oliveira vs Arman Tsarukyan
A fight good enough to headline an event by itself. An utterly remarkable matchup between two lightweights who are looking to earn themselves a title shot. What more could you want?
Arman Tsarukyan is a freakishly athletic fighter who has great wrestling and equally great striking. Charles Oliveira on the other side has unorthodox dangerous striking, and mesmeric skills on the mat.
If Tsarukyan decides to take this fight to the ground, he will need to do so with extreme caution, as Oliveira will be looking to enhance his record of the most submissions in UFC history to 17.
Oliveira has the capability of making the standup fight really awkward if he mixes in his dominant Thai clinch and his striking from a distance. Gilbert Burns predicted that ‘Do Bronx’ will get hurt early, and score another ‘crazy comeback’ win, which he has become notorious for.
I’m not sure that’s how I see it going though.
Ultimately, Tsarukyan has looked great, for the large part, but this is a really big step up in opponent from a weathering Beneil Dariush.
I think Oliveira has the advantage on the feet, and if it goes to the ground has the major threat of a submission in his back pocket.
Prediction: Charles Oliveira submission
Bo Nickal vs Cody Brundage
How this made it onto the main card is beyond me – despite it making sense from a business point of view – but here we are.
There isn’t much to break down in this matchup, I feel Cody Brundage will be completely out of his depth, which he has been against lesser opponents than Bo Nickal, and the credentialed wrestler will score another finish.
Although this is a strategic move by the UFC to put the 28-year-old on the main card, they could’ve at least made his step up bigger. This isn’t really a step up for Nickal, it is more of a step sideways.
Having said that, he will likely impress again with a first-round submission, and don’t be surprised if he’s given a performance bonus.
Prediction: Bo Nickal Submission