NBA playoffs predictions and play-in tournament schedule live updates: Bracket, odds, draft lottery and stats

If the Cavaliers are really going to do this, if they have any shot at all of going on a deep playoff run beginning next week, Friday's win over the Pacers won’t be the night that triggered it.

No, that would be a night against Washington in late February, when Donovan Mitchell was dragging his leg up and down the floor for 36 minutes in a win. That’s the night he realized he wasn’t helping anyone and he wasn’t making the team better by being out there.

Setting the eight, ninth and 10th seeds in the West:

• If the Lakers, Kings and Warriors all win, the Lakers are eighth, the Kings are ninth and the Warriors are 10th.
• If the Lakers win and the Warriors lose, the Lakers are eighth, the Kings are ninth and the Warriors are 10th.
• If the Lakers win, the Warriors win and the Kings lose, the Lakers are eighth, the Warriors are ninth and the Kings are 10th.
• If the Lakers, Kings and Warriors all lose, the Lakers are eighth, the Kings are ninth and the Warriors are 10th.
• If the Lakers lose and the Kings and Warriors win, the Kings are eighth, the Warriors are ninth and the Lakers are 10th
• If the Lakers and Kings lose and the Warriors win, the Warriors are eighth, the Lakers are ninth and the Kings are 10th.
• If the Lakers and Warriors lose and the Kings win, the Kings are eighth, the Lakers are ninth and the Warriors are 10th.
• In every scenario, Golden State is 10th with a loss, and the Lakers are eighth with a win.

Here’s a useful shorthand for figuring out Eastern Conference playoff scenarios, one that may help you understand why Cleveland and Indiana are likely to play each other no matter what else happens.

Consider the fact that New York, Cleveland, Indiana, Philadelphia and Miami all are heavy favorites on Sunday against opponents with little to play for. If those five teams all win, then the East playoff seeds would hinge on the result of the Orlando-Milwaukee game.

If Orlando wins:

2. New York

3. Cleveland

4. Milwaukee

5. Orlando

6. Indiana

7. Philadelphia

8. Miami

If Milwaukee wins:

2. Milwaukee

3. New York

4. Cleveland

5. Indiana

6. Philadelphia

7. Miami

8. Orlando

If Philly is seventh in the East, and the Pelicans aren't the No. 7 seed in the West, we could be looking at a wacky early start time for one of the West games on Tuesday. Three of the other four potential home teams are on Pacific Time, and Phoenix functionally is from April to October since Arizona doesn't use daylight savings time.

The 76ers hold the key to unlocking the Play-In Tournament schedule, so the schedule for the East's 7/8 matchup is in flux.

If the 76ers are the No. 7 seed, then they host the 7-8 game Wednesday night. If Philly isn't the 7-seed, then the East 7/8 matchup is on Tuesday night. The Philadelphia Flyers play Tuesday night, so Wells Fargo Center arena is already booked. The West's 7/8 game will happen on Tuesday night no matter what.

If the Sixers are the East's No. 7 seed, then there will be a Western Conference Play-In doubleheader Tuesday and an Eastern Conference doubleheader Wednesday. If Philly isn't the 7-seed, then the West's 9/10 matchup is Wednesday night. The Bulls will host the Hawks on Wednesday night in both situations but with a tip two hours later if the 76ers are the No. 7 seed.

The second round of Play-In Tournament games is scheduled for Friday night.

Free agent C/F Kai Jones is finalizing a multiyear deal with the LA Clippers and will join their playoff roster, league sources tell me and Law Murray.

The talented 6-foot-11 big man was the 19th overall pick in the 2021 draft and recently completed a 10-day deal with 76ers. LA is expected to waive Joshua Primo to create roster space for Jones, whose deal is a two-year deal with a team option, sources said.

As Hollinger laid out below, it could be pretty simple for the Bucks on Sunday. If they beat the Magic, they are the No. 2 seed and they would have homecourt advantage in at least the first two rounds of the playoffs if they make a deep postseason run.

Other than that though, things get confusing for the Bucks in a hurry. First, they would need to concern themselves with the Knicks' and Cavaliers' outcomes to figure out if they would be the second, third or fourth seed. Then, they would have to figure out who they would be facing in the first round or who they might be waiting to play from the Play-In Tournament.

Essentially, to figure out the entirety of the Bucks' scenarios if they lose, you'd need to read Hollinger'' post about seeds No. 2-4 and Hollinger's post about seeds No. 5-8 to get the full range of outcomes. Trying to match up with an ideal opponent in an ideal position, will be nearly impossible with all of the games going on at the same time. So the Bucks will need to decide what they are trying to accomplish on Sunday and get it done.

Oddly, nobody among Denver, Oklahoma City and Minnesota — who have identical 56-25 records — has complete control in their quest to earn the West's the top seed.

Oklahoma City is the top seed if everyone wins or if everyone loses. In both scenarios, Minnesota would be second and Denver third.

Denver is the top seed if it wins and the other two teams lose, in which case Minnesota would be second and Oklahoma City third.

Minnesota is the top seed if they win and Denver loses, in which case Oklahoma City would be second.

Oklahoma City is the top seed if they win and Minnesota loses.

Denver would move up to second if it wins and one of the other two teams lose. In any scenario where only one of the three teams lose, that team will end up the third seed.

If Milwaukee wins, the Bucks are the No. 2 seed, the Knicks are the No. 3 seed and Cleveland is the No. 4 seed

If Milwaukee loses and New York wins and Cleveland loses, New York is the No. 2 seed, Milwaukee is third and Cleveland is fourth.

If Milwaukee loses and Cleveland and New York both win, New York is the No. 2 seed, Cleveland is the third and Milwaukee is fourth.

If Milwaukee loses and New York and Cleveland both lose, Milwaukee is the No. 2 seed, New York is third and Cleveland is fourth.

And If Milwaukee and New York lose and Cleveland wins, Cleveland takes over the second seed, Milwaukee is third, and New York is fourth.

After holding a 16-point lead with 7:49 left in the third quarter, the Sacramento Kings were outscored 54-37 for the remainder of the game to lose 108-107 to the Phoenix Suns on Friday night. The Kings have now dropped five of their last six and currently own the ninth seed in the Western Conference with a 45-36 record. The Golden State Warriors — who lost to the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday — also have a 45-36 record, but Sacramento owns the tiebreaker over them due to a better divisional record.

Kevin Durant scored a game-high 28 points on 11-of-20 shooting. Domantas Sabonis paced the Kings with a team-high 25 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists. De'Aaron Fox had a tough shooting night, finishing with 23 points, six assists, five rebounds and four steals.

The Suns can still jump to sixth in the conference if they win Sunday and the Pelicans lose, and can't drop below seventh if they remain in the Play-In Tournament. As long as Sacramento wins its final regular-season game Sunday against the Portland Trail Blazers, whose 21-60 record is the worst in the West, it'll at worst secure the ninth seed and a home game against the Warriors in the 9-10 matchup Play-In. If the Los Angeles Lakers lose to the Pelicans on Sunday, the Kings will jump to the eighth spot since they own the tiebreaker over the Lakers as well.

After an eventful penultimate night in the NBA, here are the current playoff matchups and standings heading into Sunday's finale.

Play-In Tournament

Heat at 76ers, winner to face Bucks

Lakers at Suns, winner to face Timberwolves

Hawks at Bulls, loser eliminated

Warriors at Kings, loser eliminated

Hawks-Bulls winner at Heat-76ers loser, winner to face Celtics

Warriors-Kings winner at Lakers-Suns loser, winner to face Thunder

Playoff matchups

(1) Celtics vs. (8) Play-In winner

(2) Bucks vs. (7) Heat/76ers winnner

(3) Knicks vs. (6) Pacers

(4) Cavaliers vs. (5) Magic

(1) Thunder vs. (8) Play-In winner

(2) Timberwolves vs. (7) Suns/Lakers winner

(3) Nuggets vs. (6) Pelicans

(4) Clippers vs. (5) Mavericks

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The Phoenix Suns just pulled out a 108-107 win in Sacramento. That means the Pelicans won't be able to clinch the No. 6 seed in the West until Sunday.

They get No. 6 with either a win over the Lakers or a loss by the Suns on Sunday at Minnesota.

The Pelicans just completed a 114-109 victory in a road back-to-back against Golden State. If Phoenix loses tonight in Sacramento, New Orleans would clinch the sixth seed in the Western Conference.

This team just keeps proving over and over again how mentally tough they are. They got another historic shooting night for CJ McCollum, who broke the franchise single-season 3-pointer record, and a tough performance from Zion Williamson, who battled with Draymond Green all night on both ends. Williamson finished with 26 points on 11-26 shooting and a career-high six steals.

The Pelicans will finish the season with a 28-14 record on the road. That's the most road wins they've ever had in franchise history. They will end the season with the most road wins by any team in the NBA this year.

Steph Curry had a leaning 3 to tie the game late, but missed. The Warriors lose to the Pelicans 114-109, falling back to the No. 10 seed. The Kings also lost, so the Lakers move into the No. 8 spot.

If LA beats the Pelicans on Sunday, it'll be Warriors vs Kings in the 9 vs. 10 matchup (in Sacramento, assuming the Kings beat the Blazers). If the Lakers lose, the Kings get the No. 8 seed with a win over Blazers. If both the Lakers and Kings lose, the Warriors can still get No. 8 with a win over Jazz.