2024 NBA playoffs preview: Play-in predictions, first-round series guide

Editor’s note: This story was updated to reflect the results of Play-In Tournament games on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Are you ready for some NBA postseason?

We’re down to the battle for the eighth seeds on Friday that will set the bracket for the main event to start this weekend, with four first-round games on both Saturday and Sunday. The first round runs two weeks, with potential seventh games on the weekend of April 27 -28, and the bracket shrinks from there until Game 1 of the NBA Finals on June 6.

I will have a more filled-out playoff preview later in the week, where we can get into predictions for the later rounds and more detail based on the Play-In results. For now, however, let’s take the 10,000-foot view on what the Play-Ins and first round look like.

Here is the least you need to know. (All TV times ET.)

Play-In Predictions

Friday: No. 9 Chicago Bulls at No. 8 Miami Heat, 7 p.m., ESPN

Chicago also Miami faced in the final Play-In a year ago; the Heat barely held off the Bulls after trailing well into the fourth quarter before launching their magical run to the NBA Finals.

Both clubs come into this game wounded, with the Bulls losing Alex Caruso to an ankle sprain in their win over Atlanta on Wednesday and the Heat losing star forward Jimmy Butler to a knee injury. Already likely to play without Terry Rozier, the Heat might now just be too short-handed to put up a fight.

Rule No. 1 of the Heat during the Erik Spoelstra era, though, is to never pick against them when they seem impossibly short-handed like this; some random guy from the end of their bench will score 27 points, their zone will be a Jedi mind trick that makes the other team’s offense spaz out and somehow they’ll grind out a 107-100 win. Playing at home, I can’t help feeling that somehow, some way, they still get this done.

Pick: Heat

Friday: No. 9 Sacramento Kings at No. 8 New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 p.m., TNT

After pointing you to a Warriors–Lakers matchup in this game, you have every reason to trust my pick here.

Actually, it’s a shame for Sacramento it turned out this way. The Kings were two minutes away from their dream matchup against the Lakers, which has been a cook-a-thon for De’Aaron Fox in their regular season meetings, then Zion Williamson hurt his hamstring.

That could still benefit the Kings, who played great on Tuesday and now will face a Pelicans team possibly missing its best player. The Pelicans won all five games against the Kings this year, a few of them by lopsided scores, and Williamson played in four. The Kings have no answer for him; he shot a cool 66 percent in those meetings and topped his scoring average despite only being needed for 30 minutes a game.

What’s wild is that the Pelicans also crushed Sacramento even without Williamson, blowing them out 123-90 in January in the BeamDome. That underscores the other piece of the matchup: This is a pretty comfortable defensive matchup for the Pellies. They have multiple perimeter pests they can put on Fox (Herb Jones, Dyson Daniels), they can play big against Domantas Sabonis with his fellow Lithuanian Jonas Valančiūnas, and the Pels always have a place to hide Brandon Ingram or C.J. McCollum.

Those two finished Tuesday’s game against the Lakers on the bench, but should be much more prominent on Friday. McCollum, in particular, seems well-positioned to torch the Kings if they play drop coverage; he scored 26 a game on 60 percent shooting in the five regular-season meetings. Ingram has always played better with Williamson; one of the Pelicans’ enduring issues has been the lack of on-court synergy between the two, but that’s not an issue if Williamson is out.

For those reasons, I still have to give New Orleans a slight edge here. The one scenario I’d worry about if I were a Pelicans fan is if Williamson tries to play, isn’t really able and ends up giving them 20 dead minutes. Otherwise, Ingram, home-court advantage and an ideal matchup still seem like enough to get them over the hump here.

Pick: Pelicans

THE BRACKET IS SET 🍿 pic.twitter.com/guxcNaGEFf

— NBA (@NBA) April 14, 2024

Eastern Conference First Round

No. 1 Boston Celtics vs.  Atlanta/Chicago (starts Sunday, 1 p.m., ABC)

The Celtics aren’t getting enough respect as a title favorite after a 64-win season that included one of the highest scoring margins in NBA history at +11.4 per game. Recent playoff wobbles are likely the reason it’s been so hard to find Boston believers, so this spring offers a chance for the Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown era Celtics to put those demons to rest.

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Boston would be a heavy favorite here regardless of the opponent, but obviously the Celtics would prefer the Atlanta-Chicago winner advance rather than the Miami postseason torture for a fourth time in five seasons, or alternatively having Embiid pound their bigs for two weeks and wear down their frontcourt for future rounds. The thin and historically frail Kristaps Porziņģis and the 37-year-old Al Horford might not enjoy this assignment.

No. 2 New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia (starts Saturday, 6 p.m., ESPN)

This feels like the most compelling first-round series, especially if you work for Amtrak. The so-called “Acela series” (faster than the Turnpike!) matches Philly with a returned Embiid against a rising force in the Knicks.

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New York won’t have Julius Randle, but the Knicks have a new go-to guy in star guard Jalen Brunson, a perimeter defensive ace in OG Anunoby and plentiful shooting on the perimeter. New York won three of four against Philadelphia in the regular season and has two big centers with 12 fouls to throw at Embiid and should be comfortable with Brunson attacking.

Where Knicks fans might not be as comfortable is with Tom Thibodeau’s playoff history. But this feels like a different Knicks team, an enjoyable bunch that defends and shares the ball and has absolutely obliterated opponents in the 23 games Anunoby has played since his acquisition from Toronto. With Embiid still shaking off the rust and playing his way back into shape, the Sixers will have their hands full.

No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 6 Indiana Pacers (starts Sunday, 7 p.m., TNT)

Could we have an upset bracket here? The Bucks lost their final regular-season game and as a result got the one matchup they probably didn’t want, facing an Indiana team that beat them four of five times in the regular season, including at the in-season tournament semifinals in Las Vegas.

All five meetings were before Jan. 3, but the Bucks only went 17-19 in their final 36 games and will enter this series with health questions after Giannis Antetokounmpo missed their final three games with a calf strain. Khris Middleton is seemingly permanently questionable, and several Bucks veterans have tailed off dramatically over the past two to three seasons. The comparative recent playoff histories of coaches Rick Carlisle and Doc Rivers also wouldn’t seem to favor the Bucks.

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If Indiana is going to pull this off, it needs the early-season version of Tyrese Haliburton and not the one who labored through much of February and March with the after-effects of a hamstring injury. Trade deadline pickup Pascal Siakam didn’t play in any of the five games against Milwaukee, but he raises Indiana’s ceiling and gives it another potential Giannis defender.

Now, can the Pacers’ 24th-ranked defense get any stops? Facing a Damian Lillard pick-and-roll with Antetokounmpo screening isn’t for the faint of heart.

No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Orlando Magic (starts Saturday, 1 p.m., ESPN)

Cleveland’s odd adventure on Sunday saw the Cavs seem to intentionally punt away a very winnable game at home against lowly Charlotte, all to avoid the potential for drawing Embiid in the first round (Cleveland would have been the second seed if New York’s overtime game against Chicago had gone to the Bulls.)

The Cavs could have been seeded third, drawn Indiana in the first round and landed on the opposite side of the bracket from mighty Boston. Instead, they’ll face the Magic and, should they advance, Boston.

Cleveland split the season series with the Magic (as it did with the Sixers and Pacers), so it’s not as if the Cavs had some special advantage over Orlando other than playoff experience. While it’s true the young Magic squad hasn’t been here before (only four players have ever played in the postseason, and only two – Joe Ingles and Gary Harris – have won a series), Orlando was awesome with defensive hydra Jonathan Isaac on the floor, outscoring opponents by 10.8 points per 100 possessions and allowing just 102.1 points per 100 possessions. He won’t start, but he’ll be a huge factor against the Cavs’ huge frontcourt.

Cleveland also has to answer its own health questions after late-season knee troubles slowed down Donovan Mitchell. The Cavs played their best basketball during Evan Mobley’s injury absence, spacing the floor with more 3-point shooters and bombing away, but guys such as Sam Merrill and Dean Wade who made those units go might not see much run in these playoffs. Don’t sleep on this one: Points will likely be scarce, and it could become a ’90s-style rock fight.

Western Conference First Round

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans/Sacramento (starts Sunday, 9:30 p.m., TNT)

Does playoff experience matter? We’re about to find out for the top-seeded Thunder, who rode an MVP-caliber season from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and breakout campaigns from rookie Chet Holmgren and sophomore Jalen Williams to the top seed in the West. Gilgeous-Alexander and Lu Dort played one postseason round as wingmen for Chris Paul in the 2020 bubble, but otherwise Gordon Hayward is the only key Thunder player who has tasted the playoffs in any way.

As good as the Thunder were this year, this bracket presents some potentially problematic opponents. Sacramento beat them twice. This 1-8 series seems likely to test them.

No. 2 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 7. Los Angeles Lakers (starts Saturday, 8:30 p.m., ABC)

The idea that the Lakers should punt the game against New Orleans to duck the Nuggets was laughable, but this is unquestionably a difficult matchup for Los Angeles … even more than the Nuggets are for most teams. Denver has won the last eight meetings between the teams dating back to December 2022, and the games have begun to feel like Wile E. Coyote vs. the Roadrunner; each time the Lakers seem to have an edge they’re foiled in the end by the brilliance of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.

The Nuggets will be getting the best version of the Lakers, however, as we saw on Tuesday in New Orleans. Los Angeles has Gabe Vincent back in the mix, giving them a badly-needed rotation-caliber guard to soak up minutes on a thin bench; LeBron James and Anthony Davis are operating at full strength, Austin Reaves has shook off a first-half slump, and D’Angelo Russell has been on a two-month heater.

Is that enough to knock off a defending champion whose starting five is exquisitely tuned to offset everyone’s strengths and weaknesses? Without injuries, probably not. But if fouls or physical maladies expose Denver’s paper-thin bench, that could leave the door open for an upset. Keep an eye, especially, on the knee issues and shin splints that have troubled Murray through the second half of the season.

No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. No. 6 Phoenix Suns (starts Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)

This is a rematch of Sunday’s game where the Suns moved up to sixth, and moved Minnesota down to third, by thrashing the Wolves in Minnesota behind a 44-point first-quarter eruption. It was one of the few times this year it felt easy to believe in the Suns’ vision of three high-scoring shooters – Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal – with role players and defenders surrounding them.

Just as in every other sport, Minnesota’s basketball playoff history is littered with disappointment … to the extent that the Wolves have participated at all. They haven’t won a playoff series since 2004 and have only made the postseason three times since.

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This year that all seemed set to change, with Rudy Gobert a likely Defensive Player of the Year winner and Anthony Edwards an electrifying star. However, a dream season has been marred of late by an ownership squabble and a knee injury to Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns came back on Friday after an 18-game absence due to a torn meniscus but was still shaking off the rust against Phoenix, finishing with 10 points and five turnovers in 29 wobbly minutes.

This is also a horrible matchup for the Wolves, who went 56-23 against the rest of the league but lost all three meetings against the Suns by double figures. Can they figure out how to hide Towns on defense against the likes of Durant, and mash the smaller, lighter Suns on offense?

No. 4 L.A. Clippers vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks (starts Sunday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)

If you watch one first-round series, make it this one. This pairing is a rematch of the best series of the 2021 playoffs, a seven-gamer that saw several momentum shifts and tactical innovations, and among the best of the 2020 bubble.

The superstar pairing of Luka Dončić and Kawhi Leonard is instant must-see TV, and the secondary stars (Kyrie Irving, Paul George, James Harden) are equally compelling. Leonard is a two-time champion, but otherwise the key players on both teams are still battling playoff demons of varying sizes. Finally, the winner has solid odds as a sleeper to come out of the West bracket.

The Clippers won two of the three meetings, but all of them were played before Christmas. Since then Dallas acquired P.J. Washington and, more notably, Daniel Gafford, who has been a monstrous pick-and-roll partner feasting off lobs from Doncic. Dallas went 24-7 from mid-February until resting its key players the final weekend.

The Clips, meanwhile, integrated Harden after a choppy start, morphed Russell Westbrook into a sixth man supreme and were good enough to go 32-9 over a full half-season stretch this year.

As ever, the state of the Clippers depends heavily on whether Kawhi Leonard will actually play in the games. He had enjoyed one of his healthiest seasons, playing 68 games, until missing the final seven with knee soreness.

This, of course, harkens back to last season when Leonard amazed in Game 1, scoring 38 in a Clippers’ road win, before missing the last three games with a knee issue as the Clips meekly exited in five. Even if Leonard comes back, can he make it through an entire series this time?

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