Tony Awards odds updates: Musicals ‘Illinoise’ and ‘The Outsiders’ are surging
The nominations for the 77th Tony Awards will be announced in less than three weeks, but the lay of the land is ever changing because seven more musicals and musical revivals will open between now and the eligibility cutoff. As these remaining shows have started preview performances, our savvy users have been updating their choices for the most likely nominees in 10 of the 15 musical categories. See below for a breakdown of how our official odds have changed in the top categories since our last predictions center update on March 21, according to the 1,200 readers currently making their picks. Scroll to the bottom of the article for a tally of nominations by show in 10 of the 15 musical categories.
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“Cabaret” — This immersive revival of the classic John Kander and Fred Ebb musical has been leading our odds for the most nominations of any musical revival of the year. It has now added another nomination to its predicted haul of six with an expected bid in Featured Actor for Steven Skybell for a new total of seven. The actor plays Herr Schultz, a role that has netted bids for Jack Gilford, Werner Klemperer and Danny Burstein and a win for Ron Rifkin.
“Illinoise” — A last-minute entry into the 2023-2024 Broadway season, this dance show set to the Sufjan Stevens album “Illinois” has emerged as a strong contender according to our users, who anticipate it will earn two bids for Best Musical and Best Choreography for Justin Peck. Peck, who is a Tony winner for his choreography for the recent “Carousel” revival, is also the director of the musical and shares a story credit with Pulitzer Prize winner Jackie Sibblies Drury.
“The Outsiders” — In the days ahead of its official opening at the Jacobs Theatre on April 11, this adaptation of the beloved S. E. Hinton novel and the Francis Ford Coppola film of the same name has also surged in our odds. We now predict the new musical directed by Danya Taymor will score two nominations for Best Musical and Best Actor for Brody Grant. When the predictions center first opened, we had it earning a nomination for Best Book, but it had dropped out of that lineup and slipped to zero projected bids three weeks ago, so this marks a true resurgence.
“Back to the Future: The Musical” — Speaking of resurgences, Roger Bart has been in and out of our collective predictions for Featured Actor since the predictions center opened; while he missed our top five a couple of weeks ago, he returns to that fifth slot according to our latest odds. The actor is a previous winner for “You’re a Good Man, Charlie Brown” and nominee for “The Producers.”
SEE Tony Talk: Will ‘The Outsiders’ break into the competitive Best Musical race?
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“Lempicka” — When the predictions center opened, this musical about the life of painter Tamara de Lempicka led all shows with seven anticipated nominations, but has been gradually slipping. Three weeks ago, it decreased slightly to six nominations, losing support for Beth Leavel in Featured Actress. Now that the show has played over three weeks of preview performances, though, our users have lost a bit more confidence in its overall tally, as it now stands at four expected bids with the loss of noms for Best Musical and Featured Actor for Andrew Samonsky. Our users still expect it will receive recognition for actress Eden Espinosa, director Rachel Chavkin, Original Score and Musical Book.
“Days of Wine and Roses” — This new musical by Adam Guettel has been oscillating between four and five nominations since our predictions center opened. We previously thought it would score five bids for Best Musical, Actress for Kelli O’Hara, Actor for Brian d’Arcy James, Original Score and Musical Book, but as more shows open, this has slipped out of our top five for Best Musical; the show concluded its run at Studio 54 early on March 31.
“Here Lies Love” — Much like “Wine and Roses,” this musical is losing a bit of momentum as more new works open in the last two months of eligibility, especially since it ended its run early back in Nov. 2023. In the past three weeks, it has lost support in the Best Choreography category. Our users anticipate it will be remembered in Best Musical, Featured Actor (Conrad Ricamora), Director (Alex Timbers) and Original Score.
“The Who’s Tommy” — This revival of the Tony-winning 1993 musical earned strong notices from the majority of critics and holds onto its presumed nominations for Best Musical Revival and Choreography; however, in such a crowded season, its lead actor Ali Louis Bourzgui has slipped one slot to sixth, which places him outside of our five projected nominees.
“Water for Elephants” — Despite good reviews from critics, this musical has not gained any traction amongst our 1,200 users who are predicting the Tonys, as not only has it not grown its support, but its featured actor Paul Alexander Nolan has slipped out of our anticipated nominees.
WATCH our exclusive video interview with Des McAnuff, ‘The Who’s Tommy’ director
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“Hell’s Kitchen” — We continue to feel optimistic about this Alicia Keys musical and still expect it to earn nominations for Best Musical, Actress (Maleah Joi Moon), Featured Actor (Brandon Victor Dixon), Featured Actress, Musical Book and Choreography. Our users have changed their minds about who will get nominated for Featured Actress, though, switching from Shoshana Bean to Kecia Lewis; Bean is a past nominee for musical “Mr. Saturday Night,” while this would be Lewis’ first nomination.
The other musicals and musical revivals that have stayed steady in our estimation are “Merrily We Roll Along” and “Suffs” with five nominations each, “The Notebook” with three, and “Gutenberg! The Musical!,” “Harmony,” “Monty Python’s Spamalot” and “The Wiz” with one apiece.
Nominations Predictions
Cabaret — 7
Hell’s Kitchen — 6
Merrily We Roll Along — 5
Suffs — 5
Days of Wine and Roses — 4
Here Lies Love — 4
Lempicka — 4
The Notebook — 3
Illinoise — 2
The Outsiders — 2
The Who’s Tommy — 2
Back to the Future: The Musical — 1
Gutenberg! The Musical! — 1
Harmony — 1
Monty Python’s Spamalot — 1
The Wiz — 1
This tally of total nominations by show does not include the five categories of Orchestrations, Scenic Design, Costume Design, Lighting Design and Sound Design.
PREDICT the 2024 Tony Awards nominations through April 30
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