Ottawa OKs 30-year mortgages; doubles RRSP homebuyer limit.
Weird times. What do Canadian mortgage rates and Trump have in common?
Lots, it turns out.
The cost of fixed home loans will be rising by ten or twenty beeps by Tuesday (budget day). For a while we can kiss adieu anything with a 4-handle, as five-year mortgages all cross over to the mid 5% range (or higher, depending on the lender).
The bond market did this. The yield on Canada five-year debt is back at the level of last November. This week it jumped from 3.6% to 3.8%. In the bond world that’s a Beyoncé. It reflects a big bounce in the yield on US Treasuries after the latest American inflation number came in a tad hotter than anticipated.
Says celebrity mortgage dude Ron Butler of the impact: “House prices which showed some life in January & February on hopes of immediate falling mortgage rates will stall & likely return to a downward grind VERY important outcome: new home construction starts for homes to purchase continue to be non-existent outside of Alberta.”
Why is the cost of living higher in America than the Fed wants?
Because that economy’s expanding with the latest GDP pop at over 3% (we’re flirting with zero). Unemployment has been below 4% for two years – a record unmatched since Nixon was president. The stock market soared to 22 fresh record highs so far in 2024. AI is the new Internet. Corporate profits have been on target. Wage gains have surpassed inflation for most American workers for an entire year, and especially at lower-income levels. In short, the US economy is peachy.
But wait. People aren’t buying it.
Polling shows almost 70% of Americans think the economy is “not good” or “poor”. And who’s the best guy to fix it? More polling says Trump 76% and Biden 24%. Combined with Joe’s no-win stance on Israel-Hamas and the death of 32,000 Gazans, plus his age, the 2024 presidential election is looking like tough sledding. The ascension to the Oval Office of a guy found guilty of sexual abuse and fraud, facing 92 criminal charges and vowing a blood bath if he doesn’t win, while denying he lost the last time, is a thing.
So, this week’s slightly-steamy US inflation report has assumed epic stature. In the boiling political environment it’s being used to show Biden cannot control essential prices that families face. The Fed will be careful about the timing and size of cuts during the presidential slugfest. Mr. Market this week dialled back expectations. It may be a month later, maybe two, before the cost of borrowing falls.
Okay, so what?
Well, this week our central bank kept its rate on pause (as expected). And while its message was a little more dovish, we have no timetable yet for rate changes. Most people are sticking with June, but the odds of that went from 70% to about half in the space of a few hours. Now government debt yields are rising and mortgage price hikes coming. Polling also shows the current Liberal government is in freefall, thanks mostly to housing affordability. Ironically next week’s budget will itself fuel inflation as Trudeau tries to assauge the houseless by reinstating insured 30-year loans.
This just in, by the way: the anouncement of 30-year CMHC mortgages was made today in Toronto by Chrystia Freeland, as well as a doubling of withdrawal limits under the RRSP Homebuyer’s plan. Let the bubble reinflating begin!
This comes after more than $10 billion has been committed by Ottawa – all of it borrowed money – to ‘accelerating’ home construction and facilitating cheap loans for developers of rental units. The feds have caused municipal zoning rules to be trashed, brought in a bizarre new tax shelter and a bevy of historic real estate taxes and sales bans.
But the people aren’t buying it.
Here’s a new survey (done by CIBC and the CBC) showing 76% of those without real estate think they’ll never get some., regardless of what governments do. Markets are overpriced. Saving for a downpayment is impossible. Over half say they can only afford a home if family finances it – and almost as many already with mortgages state they’re planning on cutting back spending to afford a renewal.
So many angry folks. Such political consequences. And what a bevy of policy mistakes being made. Without a rate cut in Canada we’re certainly heading for negative growth and a sustained affordability crisis. But with lower rates we may see a coiled-spring of buyer demand push real estate even higher.
And now chunky mortgage rates in April may mercilessly rain on the spring market realtors were counting on – for survival.
The year 2024 is shaping up as predicted. Take cover.
About the picture: “This is Zorro at 6 months,” writes Dan. “The little punk had pushed the 16 years old lady out of her bed and was very satisfied with himself. I cannot say if it is a story of cat versus dog or young generation versus the old one. As usual, please receive my respect for calling the things as they are in these strange times.”
To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘[email protected]’.
149 comments ↓
I’m curious with everyone’s predictions with rate cuts this year. How many cuts will Canada make and how many cuts in the US.
I am guessing 3 cuts for Canada and 0 in the US, unless it gets political in the US then they will cut 1 time.
Whoops. Time catches up with all of us. When you make stupid things in print you’re going get bit in the ass . “ Hello Marc, want to have that talk now or are you going to wait until after the Liberal Party fixes your past mistakes?
https://financialpost.com/opinion/the-burden-of-proof-rests-on-mark-carney-and-he-hasnt-made-his-case-against-fossil-fuels
It’s really not as complicated as all our so called experts are trying to make up…I mean out. Over the last 30 years money has continued to lose real value…way more than we were being told. 1-3% inflation when RE prices went up 700% is such a ridiculous stat it hardly needs consideration. Now they want to tell us inflation will be back down to 2% again soon while a house in Leaside will likely rise to $10 million by 2035(or sooner). Money has lost real value period…and anyway they try and spin it can’t change that fact. Higher rates going forward,we become a country of savers again and it’s also good for the environment as we consume/pollute/waste less. It will be a “good thing” to have a buffer as healthcare.pensions etc will all come under enormous strain going forward. People are adjusting to 5% just fine and they’ll adjust(and come to love) 10% interst on their savings. Higher rates will also shrink the size of our government. It’s a win win. Those who over extended will get stung but we can’t live our lives on what a few ill advised do.
My pitchfork is sharpened. Patiently awaiting the revolution. I suspect the corrupt politicians will send in their Mack
I’m quite sure the curmudgeons will know the song, I often hear my dad from the garage singing at the top of his lungs, the lyrics go something like….” I’m just a soul whose intentions are good, oh lord please don’t let me be understood…”
So I believe this is how Tiff Macklem must feel after he answered a reporter who asked if a rate cut was in the realm of possibilities in June.
That’s right. Corrupted immigration minister criticizing immigration. I hate this country. I’m glad I didn’t move to Waterloo.
https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/immigration-minister-criticizes-conestoga-for-international-student-strategy-1.6823108
Calgary – nothing but empathy for anyone trying find a place to rent or buy – the market is insanity.
If interest rates are lowered or 30 year mortgages are implemented look out!
Painful watching the foreign interference review – how Trudeau has been elected 3 times is scary.
Conservatives are going to need 20 years to clean the Liberal / NDP mess up.
Housing – I love immigration – it has made me hundreds of thousands of dollars as my house keeps going up – but, it needs to slow down for the sake of housing, the health system the school system etc.
RE: Over half say they can only afford a home if family finances it –
=======================================
Those are the kids of parents who’ve bought them everything, never taught them to save, and spoiled them rotten. Cellphones, cars, etc… So why wouldn’t they expect Mom and Pop to buy them a house as well?
The orange guy is no lemon !
Too bad Trump wouldn’t move to Canada and run in our next election. MCGA – Make Canada Great Again.
Liz Truss and her Lettuce. That’s what will happen to Canada if the Tiffster cuts rates in June/July.
He loses the long end, the loonie goes to 60 cents. And Canada becomes a third rate power.
Inflation is a CHOICE.
GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS A CHOICE.
Central bank money PRINTING is a CHOICE.
There is NO inflation problem without government spending and central bank money printing.
Already the bond vigilantes are sensing blood in the water. Already the currency vigilantes are circling the loonie, ready to flush it down the toilet.
Currencies move first, then Bonds and lastly the stock dudes figure it out when it’s already too late.
nobody in their right mind should buy the Can$ or Canadian debt. It’s going to get flushed if the Tiffster cuts.
Ugh. Bringing back 30 year insured mortgages will only increase house prices as more demand bids them up. Please, somebody stop the madness!
Maybe a post on the Affects of accumulated inflation, shrinkflation over the past 2.5 years?
This book should be a mandatory for the comment posters of this blog. The percentages expressed in the articles change almost every day (and rightfully so), but in order to get some value out of them, readers should understand what is meant. For instance, a statement/prediction such as “the interest rate likelihood of being reduced by the central bank lowered from 70 to 30%” means on its own nothing.
By The Canadian Press
Posted April 11, 2024 8:21 am.
The Canadian government will allow 30-year amortization periods on insured mortgages for first-time homebuyers purchasing newly built homes.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland made the announcement in Toronto today, saying it would take effect Aug. 1.
The Canadian Home Builders’ Association has advocated for longer amortization periods, saying five more years would help with affordability and spur more construction.
Freeland also said the government will nearly double — to $60,000 — the amount first-time homebuyers can withdraw from RRSPs to buy a home.
That’s up from $35,000, to take effect April 16, the day the federal budget is set to be released.
People who make such withdrawals between Jan. 1, 2022, and Dec. 31, 2025, are also getting more time to begin repayment — up to five years in total rather than two.
#96 Faron on 04.11.24 at 10:43 am
#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.11.24 at 9:24 am 81 Faron on 04.11.24 at 12:05 am
It’s amazing how natural it is to chat with. For programming tasks, it offloads the challenging aspect of abstraction, dimensional thinking and language understanding to the AI. In exchange, you need to be able to accurately describe the problem you are solving and comprehend the code it produces. This will inevitably lead to improved skills in descriptive writing and worse skills in all the rest. You also have to know what you are doing so you can catch mistakes. I see it as extremely useful for writing pseudocode to help organize a problem. I’ll explicitly ask for pseudocode solutions today and report back.
For softer stuff like asking for facts or seeking advice or just companionship (it’s likely most children now will have AI companions) it’s effortless and rewarding if slightly dull.
Feel free to pass judgement on the technology amd certainly decide for yourself how you want your data to be shared. But, LLMs and AI in general are here to stay, so it’s only wise for a person to get what they can from them and learn the tool.
————————
As an Accountant, I can see how AI will make bookkeepers obsolete.
And tax accountants.
And it could make a positive contribution in science, especially medicine.
But as a Kantian, I’m afraid of what the end game could be.
Truth, facts and ethics are already seriously challenged.
Just watch American politics.
The federal government needs to stay in its lane. Housing is rightly a provincial and municipal matter as they are geographically and politically close to the issue. Real estate is rightly mostly a local issue. Federal politicians have significant influence on the housing market through immigration policy, bank regulation, and appointments to the Central Bank; they don’t need to power grab provincial and municipal authority.
There is so much uncertainty about where mortgage and loan rates are headed, it’s like throwing darts and hoping for a good outcome.
Even if the sky’s clear, will it produce loads of buyers with a summer discount of a 1/4 point drop for mortgages, I don’t think it well.
Real Estate Home prices will begin to tapper in a downturn for the short term, inventory is building with realtors bailing.
Job transfers are being refused from West to East right across the prairies, due to the cost of living difference, with most of any salary increases being sucked away by the Ontario Province under disguised and surprised eye openers.
Even the East now accepting Western Job transfers are facing stiffer purchasing power with real estate. Do your homework before you jump.
Quote of the day: if it doesn’t look right, feel right then back away because for the moment, you are right.
I know this blog hates gold, but here are some facts.
1) US is weaponizing their currency. Nations that are hostile will get their dollar reserves frozen (see Russia). Confiscation is not out of the question.
2) US fiscal deficit is out of control, financing by money printing of the world’s reserve currency.
3) Chinese central bank is buying gold like crazy (+225 tons in 2023 to 2235 tons).
Conjecture:
China (and other unfriendly nations) wants out of the US dollar system due to reasons above, and gold is the only viable alternative. If this is the case, expect to see continued buying from China, and gold to soar. Good for Canada as we are a producer.
I believe this scenario has a mid-probability of happening (10 – 20%).
Will never happen. Gold is not hated here, but too volatile an asset for B&D portfolios which value risk containment and predictable returns. – Garth
“vowing a blood bath if he doesn’t win”, common Garth, do better. He was referring to the auto industry. Don’t become fake news too.
He made similar reference in subsequent talks. No mention of cars. It was a stupid and intemperate turn of phrase for a presidential candidate, whatever the context. – Garth
Seems like there has been a lot of revisions on the pace/timing of interest rate cuts. I wonder if anyone has examined the record of all those prognosticators out there over the decades? I suspect their accuracy is about on par with reading pigeon entrails to guide the king on whether to invade the neighbouring kingdom…
We live in a world of reflexivity and, more and more these days it seems, radical uncertainty.
No, it’s a world of evolving data. Not so hard to grasp. – Garth
Thanks Garth!
As usual, regardless of human doom and gloom, life is exceedingly good.
My friends and family in the US are far and away more concerned with the unchecked border flood than any other issue. Never, under any other leader, has it been even close to the levels seen under Biden.
US, Canadian and Western Europe economies are suffering because of lack of coherent economic policies and corruption not because ‘People aren’t buying’ the good news. There are no good news, if you scratch the surface.
This is becoming more revealed, by the day…
This way UBI must take over our economy. Only then will we all have a future.
All Hail CERBia!
“Polling shows almost 70% of Americans think the economy is “not good” or “poor”. And who’s the best guy to fix it? More polling says Trump 76% and Biden 24%.”
++
I talk to a US supplier in California on a monthly basis.
He thinks Trump is an absolute loon …but…Biden’s endless deficit spending has a lot of voters down there very scared and angry.
market soared to 22 fresh record highs so far in 2024*
Hey Garth: Question for you? Do you feel the Bond market bump was something anticipated? putting myself in Tiff’s place I would feel helpless to control Canada. If 2008 was inversed we would still have high mortgages with no relief, and…. it would be disasterous for high leveraged families in non guaranteed employment, would it not?
Thanks Dan
CBC link to 30 yr amortisations and other goodies. Temporary amortizations becoming permanent is interesting too.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/freeland-housing-affordability-measures-1.7170671
#14 20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk on 04.11.24 at 11:56 am
This book should be a mandatory for the comment posters of this blog. The percentages expressed in the articles change almost every day (and rightfully so), but in order to get some value out of them, readers should understand what is meant. For instance, a statement/prediction such as “the interest rate likelihood of being reduced by the central bank lowered from 70 to 30%” means on its own nothing.
—————-
Here’s what I do.
When it’s 20% chance of rain, I leave the umbrella at home.
If it’s 50%, I’ll toss a coin.
And if I get caught without an umbrella, I curse the Weather Man.
No need to read a book about risk.
Why does everything have to be so complicated?
The problem is that homes are not affordable. Neither of the measures announced today will make homes more affordable. On the contrary, they will increase demand and make homes even more unaffordable. The Liberals, helping first-time buyers to be home poor and slaves to the banks for their entire lives – sooner! Heck, I may have just coined their tag line for the next election.
We are deep do-do.
The Liberals policy ineptness will be studied for decades to come. A random person on the street could do far better.
#25 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.11.24 at 1:01 pm
“Polling shows almost 70% of Americans think the economy is “not good” or “poor”. And who’s the best guy to fix it? More polling says Trump 76% and Biden 24%.”
++
I talk to a US supplier in California on a monthly basis.
He thinks Trump is an absolute loon …but…Biden’s endless deficit spending has a lot of voters down there very scared and angry.
————————-
330 million in the States.
And you get one guy who knows everything about American Politics.
Uncanny.
I talk to a US supplier in California on a monthly basis.
He thinks Trump is an absolute loon …but…Biden’s endless deficit spending has a lot of voters down there very scared and angry.
– –
And Trump’s didn’t?
First-time homebuyers purchasing newly built homes?
Who can afford that?!
The impact will be minimal
As they saying goes, you can’t make this stuff up…
Seems like the liberal’s answer to the housing crisis are targeted to 1st time buyers buying new homes.
Watch new home prices jump now as newbies fall over themselves to buy them.
Maybe resale homes will fall in value as they are less attractive to 1st time buyer (ha, ha – yes I know, fat chance).
Can the government possibly make more of a distorted F-up of the Canadian housing market.
30 year insured mortgages, more money available to withdraw and more time to repay your RRSP when buying a home. Yes let’s keep those prices up up up… by attempting to enable repayment of absurd prices. That’ll fix everything that any sane person has been deeply concerned about, for the last 20 years.
Garbage, no hope nation run by lunatics, regardless of who’s running it.
You nailed it – it’s the down payment and affordability. It won’t matter about 30 yr mortgage amortization or double dip RRSP’s.
Nobody earns enough to even get a start after daily expenses.
Maybe its a good thing – if you can’t ever afford a house become an investor.
The socialists just ran out of other people’s money.
“The Canadian Home Builders’ Association has advocated for longer amortization periods, saying five more years would help with affordability and spur more construction.”
———————————————————–
Extended amortization periods have made cars cheaper and more plentiful. It’s time to take advantage of these new “normal” terms of 84/96 months and get the car you’ve always wanted. Don’t miss out on this opportunity to afford a new car and keep up with the demand. Act now and get the car of your dreams!!!!
The Car Manufacturers Association says so!
I’ll refrain from calling rate decreases and dates thereof. All I can hang my hat on is that Trudeau is the single most intellectually bereft PM in Canadian history, and that when decisions are to be made, he will make the worst ones possible.
Sunny ways homies. See ya next Tuesday.
Most people have money in their RRSPs? They don’t have enough squirrelled away by the time they retire.
Strange timing though. Only starts August 1, 2024? What about the Spring rutting season?
Freeland doesn’t understand basic finance. The Liberals are clueless. 30 year amortizations will drive house prices higher and cause more debt for people.
It’d be interesting to hear the percentage of qualified homebuyers who have $60,000 to withdraw under the RRSP homebuyers plan?
But…but…but…
Clear that rates aren’t dropping meaningfully anytime soon in Canada. We are 2 yrs into a 10 yr window of rates holding about where they are. Tiff, Carney, Powel and I see clearly that a Jun drop ain’t happening. As I’ve been trying to alert y’all here about for a while.
“Higher for longer. Till something breaks at least.”
The Fed straight away lies about being data dependent.
If they truly followed any real data they would have been raising rates all along.
Its not in the govt. or their best interest to do what’s needed.
They will do the opposite.
They will lower rates for a spell. The inflation fight is over. They lost. Inflation wins.
Where’s the logic in this. They’re logic.
Said it too many times to repeat again..
>
Step right up kids! You can now withdrawal up to $65,000 of the $0 you have in your RRSP and use it towards your first house!
The 30 year amortization only applies to newly built homes purchased by first time buyers, thus not nearly as inflationary as it could be if extended to everyone and all residences.
#41 Timmy on 04.11.24 at 1:49 pm
Freeland doesn’t understand basic finance. The Liberals are clueless. 30 year amortizations will drive house prices higher and cause more debt for people.
———————————————–
Sure they understand. It’s about votes now not economics.
biden has the economy humming down there and the plebs refuse to believe it lol.
All this talk of driving prices higher, at what point will there be no buyers who can afford no matter what and their families can’t afford to front them money – we must be getting close.
Then off course those medium/long term rates just looking to explode.
In the bond world that’s a Beyoncé.
– Garth
———————
Ya. And this ain’t Texas…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=238Z4YaAr1g
Meanwhile the Liberals still have not figured out their useless attempts at influencing affordability by spending billions to change trillion dollar markets will come to no good especially for the:
Cdn Taxpayer.
She got it right the Realtors & Brokers:
So park your Lexus.
And throw your keys up.
“…….The Canadian Home Builders’ Association has advocated for longer amortization periods, saying five more years would help with affordability…….”
Soooo….let me get this right:
Currently, over 25 years, the Total Interest Paid on a $1M mortgage @ 5% is $744,814.96
With today’s federal announcement, over 30 years, the Total Interest Paid on a $1M mortgage @ 5% would increase to $921,286.44
…. yielding an increase on Total Interest Paid of $176,471.48 (or 34.7%).
In what world is this ‘helping with affordability?
Ahh!! Rising unemployment rates where art thou??
@#31 Ponzie’s presumptions.
“330 million in the States.
And you get one guy who knows everything about American Politics.
Uncanny.”
+++
He’s a National and international salesman who travels extensively.
His clients are all over the US and the World.
He doesn’t have a sole US view of politics, religion or world events.
I would listen to his unsolicited opinion even if he was a banjo picking inbred hillbilly from the deep woods of the Ozarks before I would take an opinion from a negative, naysaying, grumpy, curmudgeon like you….
Its not rocket science.
Voters dont like endless debt or rising taxes.
And if it means Trump gets back in…or Poilievre crushes the Libs in the next election….
So be it.
Apparently the 30 year amoritizations are only available to first time homebuyers, which is understandable.
But you can only take a 30 year on NEWLY BUILT homes?
This will do nothing to increase affordability, or even affect house prices. First time homebuyers aren’t going to be able to afford most new builds, even with those 5 extra years.
The two caveats to qualify someone for this are, in most cases, mutually exclusive. A nothingburger, a great way for the government to make it look like it’s doing something without actually doing something.
#16 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.11.24 at 12:13 pm
#96 Faron on 04.11.24 at 10:43 am
#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.11.24 at 9:24 am 81 Faron on 04.11.24 at 12:05 am
————————
As an Accountant, I can see how AI will make bookkeepers obsolete.
And tax accountants.
And it could make a positive contribution in science, especially medicine.
But as a Kantian, I’m afraid of what the end game could be.
Truth, facts and ethics are already seriously challenged.
Just watch American politics.
—
I agree that there are moral and ethical problems that will arise from AI. I’m not sure if using it will increase the hazard. What it learns from interacting with me will be a small drop in the bucket compared with what it learns from scraping, for example, all of the code on github.
I use it with a work login that is firewalled from my personal life, so am not overly concerned with it learning too much about me unless I tell it. In that case, the situation is akin to the möröns here who complain that we know things about them, and heaven forbid hold those things up to their faces, despite their having volunteered that information themselves in the first place.
There’s a big BIG difference between Wall Street and main Street. And its growing at an accelerated pace.
People writing this blog doesn’t seem to get that.
I would love to see our federal government announce direct income verification via CRA to stamp out mortgage fraud.
Off Topic
Beyoncé Corollary
————————
People like the song but I think dissatisfied with her slow dance. Took matters in their own hands, especially the 2nd person (love the heels)…
https://youtu.be/VEdPesu-GvY?t=48
Drug Store Cowboys/girls/Bill C-16.
(Alberta Paleo POV)
#46 Observer on 04.11.24 at 2:20 pm
The 30 year amortization only applies to newly built homes purchased by first time buyers, thus not nearly as inflationary as it could be if extended to everyone and all residences.
———
Thank you. I missed the piece about the 30 year amortization only applying on new constructions.
Doesn’t look like this is to help first time homebuyers.
This is to help homebuilders who are suffering.
Wonder if the homebuilders association was recently lobbying in Ottawa. I assume I’m 100% on point regarding that.
I wonder what would happen if political lobbying was banned.
At this point, it’s Pavlovian classical conditioning.
Question immigration rates? You must be a racist, because diversity is our strength.
Notice that you’re living in zombieland? You’re just viewing it from a position of privilege, and you should stay in your lane.
Question the government’s policies? You’re just a right-wing white supremacists fascist bigot.
Refuse to have an opinion on Israel? You must be a zionist shill.
Think maybe Russia will probably win in Ukraine? You’re a pro-Putin, anti-American, anti-Democracy shill.
Think the carbon tax might be too high, or be at a sub-optimal level for current economic conditions? The planet is dying, and how dare you be a climate denier?
It’s much easier to name-call to show how virtuous you are than it is to exercise critical thought, and reach your own conclusion.
I’ve been keeping an eye on Vancouver listings since late 2023. My observations are that there are more new listings daily than Solds. Many of the so called new listings are relistings, often at lower prices. However, starting in March, I have seen more true new listings. Therefore, i think supply is still outstripping demand so prices may not skyrocket in spring, as the realtors and homeowners hope.
Chrystia’s announcement re: 30 year amortizations is beyond dumb. A small impact on a small segment (new home owners on new construction), but needing more admin for FIs. From an admin perspective, the 5 year delay to start repayment of first time homebuyer RRSP withdrawal is an easy parameter to change w/o too much re-work, as is the increase to the eligible amount. But in reality how many people have that in their accounts anyways.
Seems like there has been a lot of revisions on the pace/timing of interest rate cuts. I wonder if anyone has examined the record of all those prognosticators out there over the decades? I suspect their accuracy is about on par with reading pigeon entrails to guide the king on whether to invade the neighbouring kingdom…
We live in a world of reflexivity and, more and more these days it seems, radical uncertainty.
No, it’s a world of evolving data. Not so hard to grasp. – Garth
If the idea of evolving data isn’t hard to grasp, why do people make predictions knowing data will change and their predictions will be wrong?
Do you ever check the weather forecast? – Garth
Kids. You’re on your own. Ottawa is filled with monkeys. Design a life where the math works, either here or some other country – in accordance with your options.
Start planning now. Here’s some background music for the effort:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8RnD9Qz1tI
Do not put your faith in government. That’s like trusting in a fence post to improve your station in life. Trudeau would lose a spelling bee to a hunk of limestone. You got yourself, that’s it.
Good luck bro’s. I look forward to seeing what y’all come up with.
Does Canada need a WEF Carney to run its banking circus clown show?
However, CIPF coverage is still suck in $1 million coverage for combined cash accounts, TFSAs since September 1999. This is a joke almost 25 years and no increase, talk about inflation, devaluation consuming all your money. This $1 million dollar coverage would buy you probably 3 houses back in 1999 in Toronto but now you will be lucky to buy 1 house. Look at all the last 9 years Trudeau, Liberal destructive policies on Canada and the economy, finances of consumers, investors, Canadians and governments.
CDIC is not much better, since 2005 when Paul Martin failed big time to become prime minister unlike his father, it is still stuck in the $100,000 CDIC deposit insurance coverage, almost 19 years. You can really see how these liberal socialists really hate anyone with the intelligence and discipline to keep their own money. I know how they think, how dare they have all this money, property and think they can keep it. It is no surprise about their destructive mentality, Freeland looks like she is being advised by the same advisor to Obama. They are so transparent I could see what they are doing decades ago.
If the next government does not go fast, cut, reform taxes and many things Liberals, socialists do, Canada is falling into second maybe third world status in coming decade.
So just to make sure I understand today’s announcement: The 30-year mortgage amortization is not the same as in the US, where you can lock in an interest rate for 30 years and refinance with some cost if interest rates drop enough to make it worthwhile. It just means you can only lock in interest for five or maybe 10 years but stretch payments over 30 years.
Is the above correct? If so, that seems like a big nothing burger.
Also, it only applies to new builds, which are generally more expensive than older houses. I think the new build rule is missing the real problem. What we really need is new skilled tradespeople to create new housing and help repair and maintain older housing stock.
It’s just an overall explosion in homelessness: Encampment numbers in Toronto have more than doubled over last March
https://www.thestar.com/real-estate/its-just-an-overall-explosion-in-homelessness-encampment-numbers-in-toronto-have-more-than-doubled/article_007fac90-f698-11ee-9564-9f44ae83d0ea.html
Flop Drops.
Recycling Depot Flop Drops.
Showcased a few of these, two more just sold, I’ll concentrate on the cheapie, I guess.
Compromises, galore but unicorns exist.
Brand new detached in the Lower Mainland for 600k
Original ask 659, probably before being completed.
Just sold for 599k.
3 bed, 2.5 bath on a small block.
Honey, I’m going outside to mow the grass.
I forgot we don’t have a yard…
https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2846954/22-750-HOT-SPRINGS-ROAD-Harrison-Hot-Springs-BC/
Second bigger one, nearly 2000 square foot also sold for 659k, one year old.
https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2839673/16-750-HOT-SPRINGS-ROAD-Harrison-Hot-Springs-BC/
I’ve been showing these new or near new detached houses selling in Harrison Hot Springs in between 1000 and 2000 sq ft, if the government buys a time machine and goes back to 2010, mass production of houses like the in places like Surrey, then everything will turn out ok.
Ok, since it’s 2010, don’t forget to build schools, bridges and sort out the police force for a growing population.
You got this, you couldn’t possibly mess it up anymore than the first time, I believe in you…
M49BC
Flop Drops.
Showcased a few of these, two more just sold, I’ll concentrate on the cheapie, I guess.
Compromises, galore but unicorns exist.
Brand new detached in the Lower Mainland for 600k
Original ask 659, probably before being completed.
Just sold for 599k.
3 bed, 2.5 bath on a small block.
Honey, I’m going outside to mow the grass.
I forgot we don’t have a yard…
https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2846954/22-750-HOT-SPRINGS-ROAD-Harrison-Hot-Springs-BC/
Second bigger one, nearly 2000 square foot also sold for 659k, one year old.
https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2839673/16-750-HOT-SPRINGS-ROAD-Harrison-Hot-Springs-BC
In Calgary, a public Council hearing on ‘rezoning’ is scheduled for April 22nd. Expect epic amounts of comments submitted plus folks registering to talk in person regarding this issue. By the CoC own reports, it currently takes an income of $156K to ‘afford’ a house here. To put that into perspective, current Calgary Councillors salaries in 2024 come in at $120,755 before tax. So can’t afford to buy a house in the city they are in charge of. The Mayor however at $213,737 can afford to purchase a home:)
The issue I’ve got with the whole rezoning thing is that it raises unrealistic expectations that doing this will result in regular folks being able to ‘afford’ to buy. It won’t & further will alter the neighborhood landscapes by a considerable amount, even if only by increasing the number of vehicles parked on street. Local Council saw fit to reduce required parking for new builds to 0.5 spots per unit. So if a multifamily unit holds say 24 units, only 12 parking spots will be available. Good way to build community as neighbors duke it out for parking space. Hockey Night in Canada (old school) will be tame in comparison. Road rage, or in this case parking rage, will be even more of a thing than it is now.
#46 Observer on 04.11.24 at 2:20 pm
The 30 year amortization only applies to newly built homes purchased by first time buyers, thus not nearly as inflationary as it could be if extended to everyone and all residences.
—————————————–
Correct. The Libs on housing are either inflationary, or do nothing / appearances. This is the latter.
Latest polling has Libs stabilized and slowly rising, stealing from NDP.
Increasing HBP limit to 60k means
1) Letting people gut their retirement savings
2) Increasing the demand on the housing market
How stupid.
We have $900,000 in RRSP GIC’s as we have been saving since the late 80’s and we never took money out of it to buy a house, condo etc. We are bot retired now in our late 60’s. We have almost even RRSP GICs balances. We are $4,000 a month positive every month and growing every year so that is all that matters.
It is a stupid policy and it is for desperate people that want a short cut and do not plan, think things through. I worked long, hard labourious jobs 60 to 70 hour weeks for at least 25 years usually from construction to landscaping.
The spousal RRSP we did because it made sense for reducing taxes for future income splitting but HBP or whatever it is called today is a bad move. We always maxed out our RRSPs, TFSAs and cash reserves, paid off all our debts in 15 years. Slow and steady is what really works not these schemes hatched by governments and others.
Governments try to prop up many that live by deep debt being the end all be all but it will fall eventually when many go in debt over and over and use it for their family and their own lifestyle. Debt is supposed to be a short term tool and not used like it is your own piggy bank. Houses are not ATM machines using line of credits, mortgages, reverse mortgages. Good luck Canadians.
To Dan, about Zorro.
Is this happening in Canada?
Trump warns of ‘bloodbath’ in auto industry if he loses.
He isn’t wrong – the Democrat push for EV is killing automotive companies.
Garth – what would happen to preferred shares if things stay higher for longer – maybe only a couple of interest rate cuts by year end for example. Would that not allow more and more rate resets to reset higher, and therefore increase the value of the preferred shares? Thanks
Off Topic
Canada Post needs to up its game.
————————-
Poste Italiane:
https://www.instagram.com/p/C5jBjvRim5u/?img_index=1
You should see our Polizia cars:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3vhmBFOyQc/
(in Piazza Spagna, Rome)
Good weather this weekend for I TURISTI, should be 30 deg C across Italia. That means upper 30’s on my terrazzo here in Reggio Calabria.
Bbq tomorrow, me, Giuseppe the Entrepreneur and a couple of Carabinieri (good people to know).
No rate cut this year.
Maybe a rate increase.
HA HA HA! SCREW THE YOUNG!
You young greater fools, prop up these prices by taking longer loans and giving more interest money to the bank.
What are we talking about here boys and girls?
$1M, assuming 5% average rate over life of loan 25yr vs 30yr amort, the first buying greater fool kids will dish out what? $170K more in interest for the 30yr vs 25yr, yes? NICE!
First it was the boomers, but now our non-finance finance minister Gen X-er is “doing the kids a favour.”
Ain’t that sweet? Pile on that debt youngins!
@#60 The Gorn on 04.11.24 at 2:58 pm
At this point, it’s Pavlovian classical conditioning.
Question immigration rates? You must be a racist, because diversity is our strength.
Notice that you’re living in zombieland? You’re just viewing it from a position of privilege, and you should stay in your lane.
Question the government’s policies? You’re just a right-wing white supremacists fascist bigot.
Refuse to have an opinion on Israel? You must be a zionist shill.
Think maybe Russia will probably win in Ukraine? You’re a pro-Putin, anti-American, anti-Democracy shill.
Think the carbon tax might be too high, or be at a sub-optimal level for current economic conditions? The planet is dying, and how dare you be a climate denier?
It’s much easier to name-call to show how virtuous you are than it is to exercise critical thought, and reach your own conclusion.
–
victim complex much?
You know Garth, Ryan got it right about April being a good month for stock appreciation.
Invested, for me, a lot of cash in the past 2 weeks. So I went to Webbroker expecting the worst and instead yesterday’s stock appreciation change (excl. dividends) was:
+25.76%
Now that’s one hell of a day.
Any stock value losses from 2023 all gone. Now waiting for the dividends to roll in. They should be good this month. YTD and annualized, divs clocking in at a +30% yield.
Grazie Ryan (you too Garth et. al.).
I personally enjoy a good balk – and a day hardly passes when I don’t balk at something – when I was younger I never balked, it just wasn’t in me – it all began around 40 I believe- and the first time I balked I was hooked – the rush of endorphins and sense of power that flowed through me triggered a higher calling – I committed then and there to live a life through balking – just give me one good reason………….
75 Irish Stew on 04.11.24 at 3:38 pm
Trump warns of ‘bloodbath’ in auto industry if he loses.
He isn’t wrong – the Democrat push for EV is killing automotive companies.
——————————
Ev’s are not very popular in the States.
Even the electric F-150 is a bust.
The truth is probably more like “the foreign competition is eating their lunch”.
“This comes after more than $10 billion has been committed by Ottawa – all of it borrowed money – to ‘accelerating’ home construction” GT
Add to that the up to $30B in borrowed funds annually to buy CMBs.
https://thehub.ca/2024-02-13/nicholas-neary-the-governments-costly-plan-to-purchase-canadian-mortgage-bonds-is-deeply-misguided/
#55 Faron on 04.11.24 at 2:47 pm
In that case, the situation is akin to the [maroons] here who complain that we know things about them, and heaven forbid hold those things up to their faces, despite their having volunteered that information themselves in the first place.
———
No, no, that’s not at all the situation. Some people, myself for example, don’t really care if people know about me.
The problem, amigo, arises when a blog commenter who disagrees with another’s comments decides it is a good idea to find out who that person’s wife is, then further creep her name and contact information… and email her at work with threats.
Regardless of attempts to dissemble or couch the response as overreaction, that actually did happened, and further, such behaviour is not normal… not even a little bit, except, as the RCMP noted, amongst stalkers.
But sure, keep it up. Good idea. Noted, recorded and reported. Patterns!
I find reading the comments on this blog from the bottom can be more entertaining than reading top to bottom, particularly when SA gets all defensive.
#37 Sail Away on 04.10.24 at 2:23 pm
Hypomanic grandiosity.
#82 Sail Away on 04.11.24 at 4:41 pm
Paranoid sense of grievance.
Help is available, only if you want it tho. For now, not a good look at all. Stop cheating yourself.
There ya go Garth, now you don’t have to ‘harp’ on how the Con’s were guilty of bringing in 30yr mortgages…looks like the lib ‘braintrust’ is running out of ideas….as if they ever had any in the first place!
Harper was 40 years. A bit more to go… – Garth
#87 Ustabe on 04.11.24 at 5:06 pm
#82 Sail Away on 04.11.24 at 4:41 pm
Paranoid sense of grievance.
———-
Really? How would you feel if I creeped your wife’s name, location, work… and emailed her threats because I disagreed with your comments on this blog?
Honest question.
I caught a piece of that press confrenece. A reporter asked Chrystia, will there be any more deficit spending. She responded ‘No’. The Trudeau Liberals are so full of themselves! They are addicted to spending and have never once run this country on a balanced budget. They don’t know how. Anyone could do their job with an unlimited budget.
Wow! It’s like the 2015 election all over again! I’m surprised she didn’t say the Budget would balance itself.
#86 Observer on 04.11.24 at 5:01 pm
I find reading the comments on this blog from the bottom can be more entertaining than reading top to bottom, particularly when SA gets all defensive.
———-
True. When someone stalks and threatens my wife because they disagree with my comments on a blog, I will become defensive.
I honestly cannot believe anyone could be in support of such behaviour. Sad.
#86 Observer on 04.11.24 at 5:01 pm
I find reading the comments on this blog from the bottom can be more entertaining than reading top to bottom, particularly when SA gets all defensive.
******
Been doing that for years…helps with the chain of replies.
cheers!
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Enjoy this cheap money while it lasts. LOL!
Hey Fools, rate cuts in June are meaningless.
The people with cash have decided that they won’t play ball with the duffer central bankers and from now on the lenders are calling the shots because after the good times are over it is all about CREDITWORTHINESS.
Canada is pooched regardless of which way interest rates go because our concentrated real estate economy is crumbling and is unwinding regardless of the heroic efforts of the Boc, CMHC and incompetent politicians. You cannot push on a string and springs have to eventually unwind.
Freeland’s announcement seems likely to do a few not great things.
The most financially illiterate first-time buyers are shepherded towards new developments, where they will be subject to even more predatory practices than in the resale real estate market. This is likely to result in builders just adding 10% in fictional ‘fees’ to the price whenever they smell a first-time buyer.
If the Liberals were smart, they would finally balance the budget! Then if PP wins in 2025, they would have a hard time keeping it balanced and would likely be forced to run a deficit.
#66 ‘Peter’ – basically the federal government is applying the ‘books will balance themselves’ theorem to household finances. Run a comparison via a handy online calculator as to the amount of interest someone with a 30 year amortization will hand over versus someone with a 25 year term. Both will cost big time, but the 30 year term simply gives the holder more time to enjoy the benefits of paying more overall in return for the benefit of a lower monthly payment right now. Call it the personal finance version of kicking the debt can down the road:)
A comment about money and taxes…
When Jesus said, ‘Give unto Caesar that which is Caesar’s’, he was saying it in relation to Roman taxation.
People were complaining about the high taxes, and J-man’s response was to point out that, in the grand scheme, money and taxes were mostly irrelevant to the important parts of life.
This has always been true. Many people get all worked up about earnings and debt and inflation and interest rates…. but, in the end, money is just an invented concept and should be placed low low down in category of importance.
So sure, play the game and amass cash… but always understand that it’s not really important.
#91 Sail Away on 04.11.24 at 5:38 pm
#86 Observer on 04.11.24 at 5:01 pm
I find reading the comments on this blog from the bottom can be more entertaining than reading top to bottom, particularly when SA gets all defensive.
———-
True. When someone stalks and threatens my wife because they disagree with my comments on a blog, I will become defensive.
I honestly cannot believe anyone could be in support of such behaviour. Sad.
^^^^^^^^^
I find it amusing how you put words in other people’s mouths.
Re: #74 wallflower
The picture was taken in Toronto.
Looking at the larger picture – yes, this is happening in Canada, me think. The younger generation started the war to push the older generation out. All this …stuff… with DEI and political correctness is just an ideology chosen to mask the real generational struggle.
#59 Travelling on 04.11.24 at 2:58 pm
#46 Observer on 04.11.24 at 2:20 pm
The 30 year amortization only applies to newly built homes purchased by first time buyers, thus not nearly as inflationary as it could be if extended to everyone and all residences.
———
Thank you. I missed the piece about the 30 year amortization only applying on new constructions.
Doesn’t look like this is to help first time homebuyers.
This is to help homebuilders who are suffering.
Wonder if the homebuilders association was recently lobbying in Ottawa. I assume I’m 100% on point regarding that.
I wonder what would happen if political lobbying was banned.
^^^^^^^^^^
If it results in more demand for new builds, that would be a good thing in my view.
Felix? We’re about to hit 100, and I see no comment.
I immigrated to Canada in 2001. Compare Canada back then with 2024 it’s a huge difference. If 30-year amortization and 60k RRSP will become new rule, I will defensively start looking for new places to move from this country, selling my RE here. Mathematically you can NOT inflate RE bubble forever, the pyramid scheme in RE is not sustainable, the bigger the bubble is, the more painful it will be for the ppl. When it bursts Canada will become 4th world country, since RE and all related industries to RE in our GDP are huge, otherwise they have to inflate everything else, including salaries, which will never happen with the same speed. Canada use to be the country for ppl, now it becomes a country for business only. So … ppl will move to the places for ppl, businesses will stay here. win win for both :). Not gonna blame any young guys, including my kids, who is pissed at how things are. They just want to live in the old good Canada like their parents. Not going to be surprised if in 1-2 years Canadian emigration will be way more than immigration.
P.S. I have been searching Canadian emigration stats, could not find any(not immigration). If anybody has a link pls share. Thanks
#73 30 years of financial big sucking sound on 04.11.24 at 3:37 pm
We have $900,000 in RRSP GIC’s as we have been saving since the late 80’s and we never took money out of it to buy a house, condo etc. We are bot retired now in our late 60’s. We have almost even RRSP GICs balances. We are $4,000 a month positive every month and growing every year so that is all that matters.
It is a stupid policy and it is for desperate people that want a short cut and do not plan, think things through. I worked long, hard labourious jobs 60 to 70 hour weeks for at least 25 years usually from construction to landscaping.
The spousal RRSP we did because it made sense for reducing taxes for future income splitting but HBP or whatever it is called today is a bad move. We always maxed out our RRSPs, TFSAs and cash reserves, paid off all our debts in 15 years. Slow and steady is what really works not these schemes hatched by governments and others.
Governments try to prop up many that live by deep debt being the end all be all but it will fall eventually when many go in debt over and over and use it for their family and their own lifestyle. Debt is supposed to be a short term tool and not used like it is your own piggy bank. Houses are not ATM machines using line of credits, mortgages, reverse mortgages. Good luck Canadians.
————————————————–
What % of your income was required for a down payment on your first home?
Do you think a landscaper or general laborer can afford to rent and save for a down payment in 2024? Do you think they can afford to save anything substantial after paying for rent, food and utilities? Not taking into consideration the desire to start a family.
Get a grip on reality.
Let me remind you who the bond vigilantes are.
They don’t care about the Tiffster and he knows it.
He’s talking for show as if he has some control.
But the reality is that Chrystia and the drama teacher blow too much cash beyond what is reasonable.
You are increasingly being administrated by the bond guys and they don’t care that you want lower interest rates.
The move to a 30 year is nothing more than a token appeasement, the die is already cast. You will pay the going market rate for mortgages and it isn’t looking good.
This is why you don’t get involved in an asset class after a 25 year run.
I know this is kindergarten class but we have a country of woke leftists that create poverty by prioritizing insanity and who believe that incentive has no value.
Former FOMC member Thomas Hoenig warned us that the central bank focus should be on both of the inflation ‘cousins”, asset inflation and price inflation.
And that the results of asset inflation were more devastating than CPI inflation, as when asset prices eventually correct, and they always do, it causes massive financial instability.
Hopefully, someday, we can find a politician in Canada who understands that.
Someone who would ensure that the Bank of Canada’s job is to contain inflation, with an eye not just to CPI inflation, but also to asset price inflation.
But we can only dream.
DELETED (Threat)
Yesterday I posted:
#48 Quintilian on 04.10.24 at 4:41 pm
“If tomorrow the casinos-oops! I mean the stock exchanges, recover what they lost today, will it mean that the CPI numbers don’t really matter?”
Any experts care to comment why the casinos recovered?
Gold is not hated here, but too volatile an asset for B&D portfolios which value risk containment and predictable returns. – Garth
____________________________
Gold and SP500 volatility are exactly the same over the last 25 years. They’ve also had a correlation of near 0 over that time.
#83 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.11.24 at 4:35 pm
75 Irish Stew on 04.11.24 at 3:38 pm
Trump warns of ‘bloodbath’ in auto industry if he loses.
He isn’t wrong – the Democrat push for EV is killing automotive companies.
——————————
Ev’s are not very popular in the States.
Even the electric F-150 is a bust.
The truth is probably more like “the foreign competition is eating their lunch”.
**************
Nah, the majority of people just don’t want to shell out $80k for an EV, when a $55k gas-powered SUV is better and more reliable in every imaginable way.
@#83 Ponzie’s Power Predictions
“Ev’s are not very popular in the States.
Even the electric F-150 is a bust.
The truth is probably more like “the foreign competition is eating their lunch”.”
+++
I have to admit that the American Auto makers have their heads in the sand.
With the exception of Tesla of course.
As for “foreign competition”.
One would assume you mean China , since the EU isn’t exactly kicking the North American door down with a plethora of EV’s either.
I have one word for “foreign competition eating their lunch”
Tariffs.
And if you think Trump or Union loving Biden won’t slap big fat competition, busting tariffs on Chinese EV cars…. you’re drinking too much Gummie Tea…
#88 Cowtown Cowboy on 04.11.24 at 5:18 pm
There ya go Garth, now you don’t have to ‘harp’ on how the Con’s were guilty of bringing in 30yr mortgages…looks like the lib ‘braintrust’ is running out of ideas….as if they ever had any in the first place!
Harper was 40 years. A bit more to go… – Garth
DOH!
#95 Nate on 04.11.24 at 5:52 pm
Freeland’s announcement seems likely to do a few not great things.
The most financially illiterate first-time buyers are shepherded towards new developments, where they will be subject to even more predatory practices than in the resale real estate market. This is likely to result in builders just adding 10% in fictional ‘fees’ to the price whenever they smell a first-time buyer.
—————–
Bang on.
You put a young couple full of raging nesting hormones in a professionally staged new home together with a seasoned Realtor.
No competition.
#108 Quintilian on 04.11.24 at 7:08 pm
Any experts care to comment why the casinos recovered?
_____________________
1 FOMO
2 Buy the dip
3 Inflation will eat idle cash
Hey Guy in Calgary, I read that post and said he was in construction and landscaping not general labour. I have a few friends who work alot for many years in landscaping and repairs, maintenance work in some decent size houses in Ontario working 65+ hours for 49 to 50 weeks a year and is making $80,000 to $90,000 a year or more in 2023. It is not hard at all 65 hours with overtime averaging $26 an hour. Minimum wage is around $17 an hour now.
Just the other day one of them with his family now 35 bought a home for $715,000 in Oshawa with a $375,000 down payment they saved over 14 years. She stays home watches the kids and he is working 6 day weeks. It is not easy but alot of people do it. TFSAs are now a big help to do this.
“Without a rate cut in Canada we’re certainly heading for negative growth” Like in a Recession??
” More polling says Trump 76% and Biden 24%. ”
You ever consider the fact that 76% of people are correct about Trump and you aren’t Garth?
Excellent photo.
The cat eclipses the dog.
Beyoncé — nice! Caitlin Clark tomorrow?
I was shocked to learn the other day that Missy Elliott — recently inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame — has never headlined her own tour before. This year’s headlining tour will be her first.
So this one goes out to all the realtors who are getting rained on this spring (and not by cash) … Missy Elliott …The Rain (Supa Dupa Fly) https://youtu.be/hHcyJPTTn9w?si=iBJ4IncjBu1jwAAH
#107 Bad Man on 04.11.24 at 6:55 pm
DELETED (Threat)
——
More like a warning.
The war is here just as much as it is there (obvious).
No joke – real consequences. Some folks aren’t down on this quite yet. Too bad they won’t be getting a heads up.
“Let the bubble reinflating begin!”
You can already get a 30 year mortgage on homes over a million since they are insured plus it only applies to new homes. This will have little to no effect on prices and at the same time the government can score a win and claim they are helping first time buyers. For once they did the right thing by doing nothing
More young people set to lose their RSP savings. That will barely cover the real estate fees if they need to sell for whatever reason and likely end up owing the bank on top of that when prices start to drop. Weird times indeed. Gotta get them all mortaged up and trapped.
The most financially illiterate first-time buyers are shepherded towards new developments, where they will be subject to even more predatory practices than in the resale real estate market. This is likely to result in builders just adding 10% in fictional ‘fees’ to the price whenever they smell a first-time buyer.
……
Plus the ever popular GST that must be added to the so-called “price”.
This “expert” is working against your recommendation for folks to take CPP sooner rather than later. Not supporting her case, just sharing what’s in mainstream media.
“For the past 10 years, one of the country’s top retirement experts has been trying to get more people to delay starting their Canada Pension Plan benefits to as late as age 70.”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/retirement/article-one-womans-crusade-to-help-people-make-better-decisions-on-starting/
Dodgy advice for women. Wrong advice for men. – Garth
#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.11.24 at 7:28 pm
….
Tariffs.
And if you think Trump or Union loving Biden won’t slap big fat competition, busting tariffs on Chinese EV cars…. you’re drinking too much Gummie Tea…
The irony will be rich:
China will set up a factory in Mexico along with all of the supply chains factories that China curently provides.
The EVs will be totally made in Mexico, using Mexican supply chains and workers. Mexico is a NAFT county ,so the Chinese EVs will qualify for the US Iflation Reduction Act $7,500 tax credit.
So no tarriff, but exact opposite , US govt funded.
This act was designed to bail out the UAW Auto makers efforts for EVs, But GM,Ford are backing away, because no one wants them. Apparently it is hard to make a competitive EV after all
Phew, for a sec i thought you were goin’ to use the r-word near the end there…
How are 30 year mortgagees help with the third highest Household debt to gdp in the G20 ? Piling on more bad debt will turn this country into a third world debt ridden banana republic.
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/households-debt-to-gdp?continent=g20
@#104 Cowtown Guy
“Do you think a landscaper or general laborer can afford to rent and save for a down payment in 2024? ”
+++
Union Labourers now make between 40 and 50 dollars an hour.
https://www.liuna.ca/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=13&Itemid=117
#115 Frank on 04.11.24 at 7:51 pm
Hey Guy in Calgary, I read that post and said he was in construction and landscaping not general labour. I have a few friends who work alot for many years in landscaping and repairs, maintenance work in some decent size houses in Ontario working 65+ hours for 49 to 50 weeks a year and is making $80,000 to $90,000 a year or more in 2023. It is not hard at all 65 hours with overtime averaging $26 an hour. Minimum wage is around $17 an hour now.
Just the other day one of them with his family now 35 bought a home for $715,000 in Oshawa with a $375,000 down payment they saved over 14 years. She stays home watches the kids and he is working 6 day weeks. It is not easy but alot of people do it. TFSAs are now a big help to do this.
——-
This is what you call “living to work”, or “running the hamster wheel”. Working 65/6 till 60 to pay off a house they torched 375K on which took 14 f’n years to scrape together. In Oshawa.
To me, this is a horror show (for the hubby anyway). Hopefully the landscaping and repair job comes with a sweet DB pension. Either that, or hubby is cool with working 100 hrs per week starting at 60 to save for retirement.
375K invested 35-65 is 1.6 Mil untouched. 375K invested with 2K/mo pumped is 3.25 million.
What a horror show.
The Houthis attacking ships in the Red Sea is effecting shipping costs, increasing transportation costs, increasing the price of oil.
Wouldn’t this increase cost of energy resulting in more inflation?
What would be the result of recession + inflation?
T2 and Freelands’ latest pittance will barely pay realtors commission and other assorted blood offerings.
What a joke…
Stats Can : Food prices in Canada have risen 21.4% form 2021…
Have your wages?
And then we have this for Lower Brainlanders….
https://www.burnabynow.com/highlights/vancouver-rent-prices-april-2024-8588774
4 out of 5 of the most expensive cities in Canada to rent….are in the Lower Brainland.
And gas…..oh the gas….
$2.12.9 per liter for regular gazzzzz.
Inflation is over…….?
Getting new home sales going is the priority, in Ontario we supplanted manufacturing jobs, industrial property tax and corporate profit with construction jobs, development fees and HST. If sales don’t get going we’re in big trouble.
Canadian household debt to gdp is 40% higher than the US and 89% higher than the Euro area. How is this good economic policy for industry? How does this help the competitiveness of Canadian products and services in the global economy? How do we compete with Texas, Poland, Mexico and Asia?
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/households-debt-to-gdp?continent=g20
30 year mortgages woot woot!
Chrystia and Justin are both non-financial economic geniuses!
Now just cut teh ratez and propadee specufestering will resume its rightful place as the #1 industry in Canada!
Garth basically said new home building is strong in Alberta.
That because so many listened and moved here.
All is good
DELETED
One of the aspects of climate change the denialist boobs and muh variability clowns here forget about is that uncertainty is a two-tailed distribution. The past year’s warming jump makes this clear. March is coming in screaming hot. Dangerous projections can also be underestimates.
@#125 Math is hard
“The irony will be rich:
China will set up a factory in Mexico along with all of the supply chains factories that China curently provides.”
+++
The US is already looking at “ghost manufacturing” in China via Mexico.
( Make a part in China…ship it to Mexico…slap a “Made in Mexico” label on it…ship to USA)
Trump has ripped up the NAFTA trade deals before.
Biden needs Union auto workers votes.
Tariffs.
On cheap Chinese EV’s
Count on it.
¨So many angry folks. Such political consequences. And what a bevy of policy mistakes being made. Without a rate cut in Canada…¨
Ah, ah, ah! The very rate mistake that got us all into this mess in the first place. Even AI won´t come up with a working solution for this one. Rates need to remain aloft to shake out all of the phony economic props.
And dropping rates very likely won´t garner votes in the next federal election.
Speaking of inflation…
Who knew South Burnaby was so expensive?
https://t.co/xGZQAcKwc3
TO: #98 Sail Away on 04.11.24 at 6:02 pm
I enjoyed that comment. It is a good perspective on life here on earth. So much to learn from that amazing man that walked the earth all those years ago.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/12/bernanke-review-bank-of-england-scraps-fan-charts-in-forecast-overhaul.html
Interesting! I wonder if the US Fed will also get rid of the dot plots?
In Canada, the MLM – Ponzie Scheme economy based on housing riches FOMO continues.
Just like LuLaRoe!
https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2021/09/amazon-lularoe-documentary-lularich
#142 PM
So much to learn from that amazing man that walked the earth all those years ago.
———————————————————————————————————
Charlie Munger?
#138 Faron
Dangerous projections can also be underestimates.
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Reminds me of those guys who have been standing on corners with signs for decades and decades (or longer) saying that the world is ending!
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2012%2Fjan%2F20%2Fcheerful-2012-end-of-world&psig=AOvVaw2Rl99gKtNEd_4OhgXgylwP&ust=1713018022788000&source=images&cd=vfe&opi=89978449&ved=0CBIQjRxqFwoTCKiR-8vvvIUDFQAAAAAdAAAAABAJ
#89 Sail Away on 04.11.24 at 5:29 pm
#87 Ustabe on 04.11.24 at 5:06 pm
#82 Sail Away on 04.11.24 at 4:41 pm
Paranoid sense of grievance.
———-
Really? How would you feel if I creeped your wife’s name, location, work… and emailed her threats because I disagreed with your comments on this blog?
Honest question.
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You did a stupid by announcing who you were. You’re like those fools who make sure everyone knows your debit card PIN and then cries to the bank expecting the bank to reimburse you for your stupid and they tell you to go fly a kite.
That would never happen to my wife as I retain anonymous poster status. I don’t require my ego to be stroked by anonymous strangers online.
There’s an honest answer to your “ahem” honest question.
VIX did dun gone ape sht today. Lads, are we going to war next week? What are our Rulers up to.
Foreign landlord fails to pay taxes, CRA goes after tenant
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/article-foreign-landlord-fails-to-pay-taxes-cra-goes-after-tenant/
Wow. That seems…wildly unfair. Tell me again, Garth how everything is stacked in favour of the tenants?