NBA playoffs predictions and play-in tournament schedule live updates: Bracket, odds, draft lottery and stats

ORLANDO, Fla. — The Milwaukee Bucks still managed to win a sixth consecutive Central Division crown and claim the No. 3 seed in the East, but the team's regular season will be looked upon as a disappointment from those inside and outside the organization. Their reward for their regular season is a first-round matchup against the Indiana Pacers, a team the Bucks struggled mightily against in the season's first half .

"Indiana has had our number all year, so perfect opponent," coach Doc Rivers said. "Listen, we gotta play somebody, and they're tough. They've played great against us. They probably have great confidence against us. We'll have great focus because we're going to have to."

Including their loss in the semifinals of the In-Season Tournament, the Bucks went 1-4 against their Central Division foes this season. The Bucks' lone win came on Dec. 13 when Giannis Antetokounmpo scored a franchise-record 64 points. Even that night is a slightly bitter memory for the Bucks, as the drama about the game ball after drew national negative attention for Antetokounmpo.

While the Bucks struggled against the Pacers in the regular season, they can take some solace in the fact that Rivers was not on the sidelines for any of those losses. One of Rivers' first priorities as coach was cleaning up the Bucks' transition defense, and that focus came about, at least partially, because of the Bucks' struggles to get back against the fast-paced Pacers, who finished the regular season second in offensive rating.

The Bucks will have most of this week to prepare with Game 1 on Sunday. This week will be crucial for the Bucks as Antetokounmpo continues to work on his recovery from the left soleus strain he suffered in Tuesday's win over the Boston Celtics in order to try to play in Game 1. But it will also be important for the rest of the Bucks as they try to get right after dropping eight of their final 11 games, including losing two of the last three without Antetokounmpo.

"It's a new season with the postseason, but at the same time, you don't want to leave (losing eight of the last 11 games) in the past," Middleton said. "You want to look at those games and look at what went wrong and try to correct those (mistakes)."

Read the rest of my story from Orlando here.

NEW ORLEANS — Sunday's regular-season finale was supposed to be a coronation for the New Orleans Pelicans.

They were returning home after four crucial road wins that allowed them to control their playoff destiny heading into their final game. A win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday would’ve given the Pelicans:

• Their first five-game winning streak of the season.
• The No. 6 seed in the Western Conference and a guaranteed spot in the playoffs.
• The second 50-win season in franchise history.

In addition, it was Brandon Ingram’s first game back in the lineup after missing the previous 12 with a knee injury — not to mention the animosity that's in the building anytime Anthony Davis visits his old stomping grounds at Smoothie King Center.

The stage was set for New Orleans to earn a statement win. Instead, the Lakers blitzed them from the start, built a 32-point lead and cruised to a 124-108 victory. Considering the stakes and the anticipation coming into the game, it may have been the Pels' most disastrous performance of the season.

They lacked precision and focus. It was eerily similar to their worst night of the season back in December when the Lakers rolled them by 44 points in Las Vegas during the semifinals of the In-Season Tournament.

As a result, they'll face these same Lakers again Tuesday in New Orleans in the 7-8 matchup of the Play-In Tournament. The winner moves on to face the defending champion Denver Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs. The loser hosts the winner of Sacramento/Golden State in a win-or-go-home matchup on Friday.

"In that first half, they punched us right in the mouth," Pelicans coach Willie Green said. "We let a really good opportunity slip away."

Read the rest of my story here.

The Toronto Raptors' trade with the New York Knicks on Dec. 30 earned mixed reviews. The move, which sent OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa and future 50-point scorer Malachi Flynn to New York for Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett, made sense from a timeline perspective, pairing two players still in the first half of their 20s for a pending unrestricted free agent. On the other hand, given how long Anunoby had been in the rumo(u)r mill, not getting back meaningful draft compensation was a surprise to most fans.

Well, that isn't entirely true. The Raptors got one second-round pick back: The one the Knicks got from the Detroit Pistons. As it happens, the Pistons finished the season with a league-worst 14 wins, and the Draft is going from a one-night event to a two-night event. That means after the 30th selection is made on June 26, the Raptors — assuming they do not move the pick between now and then — will be on the clock for 20ish hours. They will have the first pick of the second round.

If you are a general NBA fan, it is fair if you tuned out on the Raptors after their team-altering trades. On June 27, though, they will be the headliner once again.

OKLAHOMA CITY — When Oklahoma City made its first leap last season, improving by 16 wins and losing in the Play-In Tournament’s second game, it piqued the league's interest. The Thunder, after several seasons cycling through youngsters, had started to assemble a core group with enormous potential and future picks galore. But it seemed too soon for another such leap, too soon to add another 16 wins upon its 40-42 record.

And then, this season, Oklahoma City topped that, winning 17 more games than it did last year. One year removed from a Play-In Tournament appearance, it’s the Thunder atop the West, waiting for that same tournament to confirm their opponent.

It was a moment that should be celebrated. In the locker room, they did, acknowledging the accomplishment and passing out shirts that said "Northwest Division Champions," which happened to be the division from which all three of the conference’s top seeds came. When asked about what the team had done in the locker room, Chet Holmgren unzipped his hoodie to reveal he was wearing that shirt underneath. "Like this," he said, saying the team took a team photo wearing them.

It was a muted celebration, then, but an acknowledgement of what they had achieved nevertheless. Even if not every player left wearing them.

"This leather jacket’s expensive," Jalen Williams explained with a smile, asked why he wasn't wearing one of the same shirts when he arrived for his postgame news conference. "But I've got four or five of them in my bag."

Oklahoma City, with an average age of 23.9 years, has become the youngest team in NBA history to secure a No. 1 seed. But the Thunder, who bull rushed into existence less than two decades ago to earn their place within the league, have been here before. They've had a young core punching above its expectations, even if Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander now wear designer sunglasses during postgame news conferences rather than Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook's lensless frames. They have built a young roster that seemed destined for dynasty success and watched it fall short.

But experiencing history is the only way to avoid being frightened by it. There’s no question this iteration of the Thunder has the franchise-borne humility, even if most of the pieces have been changed.OK

"When we wake up Tuesday morning, we're 0-0," Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said. "It's a new season. Everything that we did in the regular season doesn't matter except opponent and seeding. … We'll go into it with great respect for our opponents, but great respect for ourselves."

Read the rest of my story here.

The Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) is rehabbing daily, but there's some real doubt for his status to begin series vs. Pacers on Sunday, league sources tell The Athletic. Although Giannis has rare recovery ability, he's very much up in the air for Game 1.

NEW ORLEANS — Austin Reaves looked up at the in-arena box score jumbotron and did a double take.

At the seven-minute mark of the second quarter, LeBron James already had 11 assists.

"What the hell is going on?" Reaves thought to himself when he saw the number. "They might have a typo up there."

Except it wasn’t an error — James had eight assists in the first seven minutes of the game and a career-high 13 assists in the first half. Behind James' fifth triple-double of the season — 28 points, 11 rebounds and a season-high 17 assists while adding five steals — the Lakers beat the New Orleans Pelicans in their regular-season finale to secure the No. 8 seed in the Play-In Tournament and finish the season 47-35.

"It was a good test for us," James said of the win. "A good regular season for us, even throughout everything that's gone on throughout this whole season. For us to end the season 12 games over .500 — 13 if you count the championship in the In-Season Tournament — I mean, with everything we've been through, that’s a pretty good season for us."

Read the rest of my story here.

NEW YORK — Coby White watches sides of DeMar DeRozan fans don't get to see.

The breakout player of the season for the Bulls sees steadiness in his veteran teammate above all.

"He never complains," White said. "He just loves the game. He loves to hoop."

DeRozan finished this season as the NBA's minutes leader after playing 44 minutes in the Bulls' 120-119 overtime loss at New York on the final day of the regular season. DeRozan logged 2,988 total minutes, the third most of his career and his most since the 2013-14 season.

DeRozan, 34, becomes the first player since LeBron James (33) in 2018 to lead the league in minutes in his 30s. Before that, Elvin Hayes (31) in 1976-77 was the last player to lead the NBA in minutes in his 30s. DeRozan's 2,988 minutes also are the most since Bradley Beal finished with 3,028 in 2018-19.

"And he doesn’t miss practice. He doesn't miss shootaround," White said of DeRozan. "He's early to everything. Those are the things I notice. He's always on time. He's always one of the first ones there. You know how some guys can be. And for him, it's just his professionalism day in and day out never changes."

Read the rest of my story here.

The conclusion of the 2023-24 NBA season also means the order for the 2024 NBA Draft lottery is now set. Well, at least the first nine slots are, since we still have four teams left to eliminate in the Play-In Tournament and two of them (Atlanta and Chicago) have a worse record than the already eliminated Rockets.

A reminder: in an attempt to disincentivize tanking, the league flattened the weights in 2019 to give the three worst teams an equal opportunity to earn the No. 1 pick. Any ties will be broken by a coin flip. The league will draw for the first four selections and then proceed in reverse winning percentage order, so the worst team is at least guaranteed the fifth pick.

So here's the lottery order, along with each team's chance to win the top pick.

1. Detroit Pistons (14-68): 14 percent
2. Washington Wizards (15-67): 14 percent
3. Portland Trail Blazers (21-61) or Charlotte Hornets (21-61): 14 percent
4. Portland Trail Blazers (21-61) or Charlotte Hornets (21-61): 12.5 percent
5. San Antonio Spurs (22-60): 10.5 percent
6. Toronto Raptors (25-57): 9 percent — pick goes to Spurs if outside the top six
7. Memphis Grizzlies (27-55): 7.5 percent
8. Utah Jazz (31-51): 6 percent — pick goes to Thunder if outside the top 10
9. Brooklyn Nets (32-50): 4.5 percent — pick goes to Rockets
10. The loser of Wednesday's Bulls-Hawks 9-10 Play-In Game: 3 percent
11. Bulls/Hawks winner (if they lose the final Play-In Game) OR Rockets (41-41): 2 percent
12. Rockets (if Bulls/Hawks make playoffs) OR second-worst Play-In loser: 1.5 percent
13. Second-best Play-In loser: 1 percent
14. Best Play-In loser: 0.5 percent

The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery will be held on May 12.

Are you ready for some NBA postseason? We got a little taster on the season's final weekend, with a few teams playing high-stakes games that resembled playoff environments. That was particularly true in the jumbled Western Conference standings, where the New Orleans Pelicans, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings were locked in a series of huge games that determined spots six through 10 in the West hierarchy.

And now, we exhale. There are no games Monday, but we get two big Play-In games on Tuesday and Wednesday before the final Play-In for each conference on Friday; that sets the bracket for the main event to start this weekend with four games on both Saturday and Sunday. The first round runs two weeks, with potential seventh games on the weekend of April 27 and 28, and the bracket shrinks from there until Game 1 of the NBA Finals on June 6.

I will have a more filled-out playoff preview later in the week, where we can get into predictions for the later rounds and more detail based on the Play-In results. For now, however, let’s take the 10,000-foot view on what the play-ins and first round look like.

Here is the least you need to know.

Read on for my preview of each matchup.

The Golden State Warriors find themselves as the butt of the Western Conference Play-In Tournament, needing two wins to make the actual playoffs. A loss this week pushes them closer to the inevitable end of their era.

That’s the anticlimactic conclusion to 82 games: the No. 10 seed. And their latest spin is they play well with their backs against the wall.

It’s true. The best players on this team have been through epic postseason triumphs, responding to several of the brinks to which they were pushed. Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Chris Paul, Andrew Wiggins, Kevon Looney — they have earned credibility in this situation.

Yet, after 82 games, it’s also clear the must-win boost is but the lone remaining hope to salvage this season. Though it’s built on their history of meeting moments, it’s also the last remaining juice with which to baste this jive turkey of a season.

This is where they are now.

“It just feels like we need to go win,” Green said Sunday after watching the Warriors beat the Utah Jazz, 123-116, in a black sweatsuit and green cement Jordan 3s. “But it’s exciting. You know, it’s do or die. Probably feels more NCAA Tournament-ish. Kind of give you that feel. … We’ve just got to go win.”

Continue reading.

There are nights in the NBA when the boos pouring down from the home crowd feel directed at the players on the court, but the catcalls emanating from the Cleveland Cavaliers faithful Sunday afternoon seemed to be directed elsewhere.

Cavs fans recognize an organizational failure when they see one, which is what they were reacting to in the final moments of a 120-110 loss to the lottery-bound Charlotte Hornets, on a day when all the Cavs had to do was win to avoid the Boston Celtics’ side of the bracket in the NBA playoffs.

The Hornets dressed nine players. Their leading scorer was Nick Smith Jr., who at least played 50 games for Charlotte — more than most people in a Hornets uniform on Sunday could say. Steve Clifford was probably coaching the last game of his strong NBA career, but before the game, he didn’t want to reflect because of the task at hand of trying to manage a 48-minute game with mostly end-of-benchers and G League-type players.

It has been a tremendous season of revival for the Minnesota Timberwolves. They will host Game 1 of a playoff series for the first time since 2004, saw Rudy Gobert reassert himself as a dominant defensive force and Anthony Edwards explode as a bona fide superstar. They entered Sunday with a chance to grab the No. 1 seed with a win over the Phoenix Suns and a loss by either Denver or Oklahoma City. Both the Thunder and Nuggets had easy wins against opponents with no interest in competing.

A win over Phoenix would have clinched the No. 2 seed, but still may have resulted in a matchup against the Suns. It appears as if this was their destiny to see their best season since Kevin Garnett's heyday draw the worst possible matchup for them.

Karl-Anthony Towns has spent nine years with the Timberwolves and he smiled in the locker room after the game when he said it was "the Minnesota way."

"There's no better team to be playing in the first round than a team that we struggled with all year," said Towns, who had 10 points on 3-of-8 shooting with five turnovers in his second game back from a torn meniscus. "If there was ever a time for this team to earn its shot at a parade here or to get to the second round, it's only right that it would be against the team that we found most difficult for ourselves this year."

Read the rest of my story here.

More than a decade ago, when the dregs of the NBA raced to the bottom for a chance at consensus No. 1 pick Anthony Davis, one team chose not to participate in the tankathon.

The New Orleans Hornets, a group desperate for a future star, didn’t strategically lose to close the season. Instead, they caught fire, winning eight of their final 13 games and hurting their lottery odds. Throughout the stretch, head coach Monty Williams repeated the same mantra: "Don’t mess with the game or it will mess with you."

A month after completing the 2011-12 season with the NBA’s fourth-worst record, the Hornets won the lottery, landing them Davis. The basketball gods have a funny way of paying back those who do right by them.

Twelve years later, the New York Knicks are hoping to receive similar treatment.

They concluded their season Sunday with a 120-119 overtime win against the Chicago Bulls, the Knicks’ fifth consecutive victory. It ensures them their first 50-win season since 2012-13 and the second-best record in the Eastern Conference, a spot they snatched both because they sought it and because no one else did.

Being the No. 2-seeded team means New York will face the victor of Wednesday night's Play-In Tournament game between the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat, two teams that aren't your usual seventh- or eighth-place finishers.

The Sixers just got reigning MVP Joel Embiid back from injury and haven't lost since. They are 31-8 when Embiid is in the lineup. The Heat are notorious for outplaying their regular-season record in the playoffs, never in a more obvious way than they did last spring when they jolted to the NBA Finals as a No. 8 seed, a run that included a second-round trampling of the Knicks.

Of course, as the rest of the league swerved away from two giants, New York didn’t care to avoid anyone.

"The object is to win," head coach Tom Thibodeau said. "Put everything you have into winning. That's the bottom line."

Read the rest of my story here.

Adam Silver wants parity — and this season, he sure got it.

Sunday’s season-ending NBA slate of games created a remarkable statistical improbability. Thanks to some last-minute gamesmanship by a few teams, a whopping 14 teams ended with between 46 and 51 wins this season. That’s nearly half the league.

The full list:

• 51 wins: Clippers
• 50 wins: Knicks, Mavericks
• 49 wins: Suns, Pelicans, Bucks
• 48 wins: Cavaliers
• 47 wins: Magic, Pacers, Lakers, 76ers
• 46 wins: Kings, Warriors, Heat

There’s a psychological phenomenon known as “illusory superiority” where everyone overestimates their own qualities compared to everyone else. In short: everyone thinks they’re above average, which is of course impossible. Except, it was pretty close to true in the NBA this season.

Yes, the decrepit bottom of the NBA helped prop everyone else’s records up. But had that not happened, we still likely would’ve had a cluster of teams in the middle. That’s what happened last season when 14 teams won between 40 and 48 games.

The likely cause, then, is not something that will go away anytime soon. The Play-In Tournament has given more teams hope for a postseason berth while incentivizing the need to finish sixth or higher (aka, above average). On top of that, the inaugural In-Season Tournament also likely contributed to teams clustering together; it’s no accident to me that four of those 13 “above average” teams comprised the final four of the IST.

This is Adam Silver’s NBA, for better or worse. Historically, dynasties, and not parity, has led to the most national interest in the sport. But with the fragmentation of media, abundance of game availability and presence of streaming services — with a new media right deal on the horizon — perhaps these are different times. Time will tell if parity equals popularity.