Editor’s note: The following excerpt draws from three separate sections of Jackson’s book, encompassing the past, present and future of personal mobility.
Cars have been a symbol of freedom and independence since their introduction more than 125 years ago. We now see a clear effort by governments globally, as well as transportation planners and advocacy organizations, to make it more difficult for people to buy, own, drive and park cars. Transportation and mobility policy needs to be about addition, not subtraction.
Whether you have noticed it in your own sphere, the war on cars is growing and spreading across the United States and around the world and it will undoubtedly make life more problematic for those wanting or needing to commute and enjoy the recreational opportunities that cars make possible.
Cars have revolutionized transportation, allowing people to travel greater distances in shorter periods of time and have played a crucial role in shaping the modern world. Cars have also been instrumental in driving upward economic mobility, allowing people to access better job opportunities and improve their quality of life.
This book is an examination of how cars have facilitated that upward mobility, even though we still can’t buy ones that fly.
Other modes of getting around are important as well. Mobility is and should always be a matter of personal choice, and it may not necessarily be the form of mobility that government leaders would choose for us.
Cars first
Our free-market economy has been built on the idea that people should have the opportunity to move up the economic ladder and improve their financial position. Cars have significantly contributed to economic mobility by providing access to improved job opportunities. Prior to the automotive revolution, people generally were limited to working near their homes. The widespread adoption of automobiles allowed people to go farther, faster and more conveniently to take advantage of employment opportunities in other neighborhoods and beyond.
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Cars also enabled people to improve their education and training, crucial ingredients for upward economic mobility. For example, students in rural areas often do not have access to universities or training programs within their reasonable local reach. However, with a car, rural residents can travel to the nearest city to attend a university or education and training programs. This not only improves their chances of getting a better job but also increases their earning potential for their lifetime.
Cars have also fostered entrepreneurialism, enabling new business owners to conveniently transport goods and services, grow their customer base and increase their revenue, thus creating an economic domino effect: more revenue prompting business reinvestment, more employees and faster business growth and development.
Cars also ushered in the freedom to travel and explore the country, sometimes areas that were previously inaccessible, leading to a greater appreciation of the natural world and the cultural diversity of the United States.
In fact, road trips have become a staple of American culture, providing the means and inspiration for people to explore the vast and diverse landscapes of the country. Travel and exploration have inspired generations of artists and writers who’ve also relied on cars. The iconic Route 66, for example, is the subject of countless songs, books and movies, capturing the imagination of people around the world.
And who can forget Jack Kerouac’s “On the Road?” Or the Chevrolet Corvette that starred on television’s “Route 66?”
Debunking myths, urban legends, folk tales and other misinformation
New cars are much cleaner today than they were 50 years ago.
The progress made in reducing vehicle emissions over the past five decades is a testament to the effectiveness of regulatory measures and technological advancements. The NHTSA regulations, the Clean Air Act, the California waiver, and the adoption of California emissions standards by certain states have all played a pivotal role in driving this overall progress.
Understanding the difference between particle emissions and greenhouse gas emissions, also referred to as CO2 or climate change emissions, is crucial in addressing both local air pollution and global warming. Continued efforts to improve vehicle emissions will be essential in ensuring a sustainable future and progress toward an emissions free transportation sector.
Aside from getting newer and much cleaner cars on the road, year-in and year-out, there is also the issue of the older, less clean, often high-emitting vehicles that were added to the roads over the past several decades. New cars are so much cleaner, the old ones they replace can be 100 times harder on the environment than the new ones coming into service today. A national or even international effort is needed to target the old high emitters and take them off the road so they can be replaced with newer cleaner cars.
News cars are much safer today than ever
Trends over past century based on fatalities versus population: The population motor-vehicle death rate reached its peak in 1937 with 30.8 deaths per 100,000 population. The current rate, based on 2021 data, is 14.3 per 100,000, representing a 54 percent improvement. In 1913, 33.38 people died for every 10,000 vehicles on the road. In 2021, the death rate was 1.66 per 10,000 vehicles, a dramatic and impressive 95 percent improvement.
“Where’s My Flying Car?”
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Bottom line is this. Cars continue to become safer and safer for occupants, even as traffic casualty counts rise due to an increase in fatalities among cyclists and pedestrians. As more and more people populate ever more crowded streets and more pedestrians and cyclists are injected into the traffic-way puzzle, new onboard vehicle technologies and transportation system design will play an ever-growing and more critical role in effective traffic fatality reduction efforts.
Advancements in automotive safety have transformed the landscape of vehicle design, resulting in significantly safer cars on the roads today. Motor vehicles will continue to become safer for their occupants over time, and with better onboard safety and detection technologies, will become significantly safer for cyclists and pedestrians.
New cars today are much higher quality than ever
From an overall quality standpoint, cars have improved remarkably over the years. The average age of the overall fleet of vehicles on United States roads has steadily increased over the past six to eight decades. This can be attributed to the improvements in new-car quality discussed earlier. According to data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the average age of vehicles on the road in the United States has risen from 6.1 years in 1970 to more than double that, 12.6 years, in 2022. This upward trend can be primarily attributed to the improved longevity of vehicles resulting from enhanced quality standards.
While improved quality has been a significant factor in increasing vehicle longevity, other factors also contribute to this trend. Regular maintenance, technological advancements and changing consumer behaviors have all played a role. The availability of better lubricants, more efficient cooling systems and improved maintenance practices have helped extend the lifespan of vehicles. Additionally, the shift toward a more service-oriented economy, where consumers prioritize maintaining and repairing their existing vehicles rather than buying new ones, has also contributed to the increased average age of the fleet.
Real-life verification
In everyday and practical terms, this story I heard firsthand during business travel to Gunnison, Colorado, some 15 years ago, demonstrates the significant, even monumental improvement in new-car quality better than any I know. While speaking to the Rotary Club of Gunnison, I addressed the issue in automotive culture of improved quality of cars and increasing age of fleet. In the audience was a longtime Gunnison resident, who was the former owner of a local General Motors dealership, with most GM brands included in their franchise agreements, including Chevrolet, Buick, Pontiac, Oldsmobile and Cadillac. His family was in the new-car dealer business in Gunnison for several decades through the 1940s, ‘50s, ‘60s and ‘70s.
After I told the story of how new-car quality had led to greater longevity of all aspects of the automotive fleet, this former dealer spoke up from the audience. I had clearly hit a chord. The former dealer referenced how in the ‘50s, ‘60s and even early ‘70s, new cars would come off the delivery truck when arriving at the dealership and would have go through two or three days of quality control inspections, pre-delivery repairs and changes before the cars could be handed off to their customers. He said on average each car would have 30 to 40, sometimes even 50, specific repairs or changes needed before they could be delivered to their ultimate owners. By comparison, it is rare today for new cars to need any repairs or modifications after they arrive from the factory. We have come so far. New cars produced today are ready to roll, often with no repairs needed for 100,000 miles or more.
Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Vehicles (eVTOLs): The Next Frontier in Personal Mobility
Since the dawn of aviation, mankind has dreamt of taking to the skies in personal flying machines. Over the years, this fascination with flying cars has been fueled by countless movies, TV shows and books depicting a world where commuting through the air is an everyday reality. However, only in recent years has this vision started to materialize, with Vertical Takeoff and Landing Vehicles (VTOLs), also called passenger drones or flying cars, inching closer to becoming a viable mode of transportation. As we stand on the cusp of this revolutionary technology, it is crucial to examine the history, challenges and potential benefits of eVTOLs in shaping our future mobility.
In recent months I’ve attended several conferences and events that focused largely on this newly emerging industry. It’s fascinating to see the level of energy, excitement and investment being generated by the early announcements from this prescient industry. One eVTOL stock is up by 230 percent on the year and has not yet made its first passenger flight. Is all the attention justified or will eVTOLs take their place in overhyped history somewhere between Segways and Google Glass?
History and pop-culture attraction in flying cars
The idea of flying cars has captured people’s imagination for decades. Since the early 20th century, inventors, engineers and entrepreneurs have attempted to bring this dream to life. From movies such as “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang,” “Back to the Future Part II,” “Star Wars,” “Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets,” and television shows such as “The Jetsons,” “Futurama” and “Doctor Who” along with books such as “War of the Worlds,” “Blade Runner,” “The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy” and “The Hunger Games: (note: this is far from an exhaustive list), flying cars have played through American pop culture as our ultimate freedom of mobility and adventure.
Aircraft manufacturers including Airbus, Boeing, Embraer and Bell Helicopters and major airlines including Delta, United and JetBlue along with traditional automakers such as Toyota, Stellantis, Hyundai, Ford, Volkswagen and Mercedes Benz are investing in developing VTOLs, driven by the belief that they can revolutionize urban transportation and place their services at the heart of the fastest-developing segment of personal mobility.
Among the more than 200 reported VTOL startups, these are my top 10 (alphabetical) trying to get off the ground in the race to the friendly blue skies of individualized, personal mobility.
- Archer Aviation
- Bell Nexus
- Beta Technologies
- Daroni Aerospace
- Embraer Eve
- Hyundai Supernal
- Joby Aviation
- Lilium Jet
- Volocopter
- Wisk Aero
Advantages to society
The potential societal benefits of eVTOLs as a transportation and mobility option are immense. As problem solvers, eVTOLs could alleviate traffic congestion in densely populated urban areas, reduce travel times and improve productivity. They could also provide a lifeline in emergency situations, reaching remote or disaster-stricken areas quickly and efficiently. And eVTOLs have the potential to democratize transportation, providing access to remote regions and underserved communities. By utilizing electric propulsion, eVTOLs will contribute to reducing carbon emissions and combating climate change.
Most frequent questions about eVTOLs (flying cars):
- How high will eVTOLs fly? Answer: Expected between 500 feet to 5,000 feet. Though FAA rulemaking will define more clearly.
- What will power eVTOLs? Answer: Most are expected to be Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs). Though like the auto industry, hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid are being explored.
- Will eVTOLs fly autonomously? Answer: Yes, eventually. Though all the startup entrants anticipate using pilots until autonomous technology is perfected.
- How soon will eVTOLs first be operational? Answer: Several startups predict 2025. My estimate is closer to 2030. At first, they will use very limited predetermined routes and grow from there.
- If eVTOLs fly autonomously, how do they avoid traffic congestion in the air? Answer: Based on autonomous drone shows with 2,000 to 5,000 participating with finely choreographed movement routines, similar autonomous safety technology will be able to ensure safe airspace even in a crowded traffic scene.
The prospect of eVTOLs becoming a reality is no longer a distant dream and a tangible realistic possibility. The history and interest in flying cars, coupled with their portrayal in popular culture, has cemented their place in our collective consciousness. While challenges remain, the advantages to society are undeniable. eVTOLs have the potential to reshape urban transportation, reduce traffic fatalities, expedite travel and usher in a new era of expedient connectivity. As we navigate the roadblocks ahead, it is crucial to foster collaboration and innovation, ensuring the promise of eVTOLs becomes a reality for all. The sky is no longer the limit; it is the horizon of a new era in energized mobility freedom.
Most of the startup eVTOL flying car companies anticipate getting off the ground initially with a pilot on board for the flight. The coming promise of integration with advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and intelligent navigation systems will become critical for the success of eVTOLs (flying cars) over the long term, and their ability to fly autonomously. Most of the startup eVTOLs are battery electric powered, though two companies are considering jet power or even hydrogen fuel cell technology. Between these being emission free out of the gate and autonomous later, they hold within them significant change in personal and commercial mobility and transportation.
This future, our future, our freedom and our latitude
Come join me for this futuristic journey, where the sky is our only limit. Where our love for freedom and mobility, whether on a bicycle, on a motorcycle, in a car or in a plane is extended to personal mobility of the skies. Don’t let the urbanists, the hyperlocals, the eliminating cars crowd stop or even slow your elevation to heights never fully imagined until now. Join me as we explore the new horizons of our imagination and freedom to go where we want, when we want and how we want.
Freedom of mobility is surely the most precious and sought after freedom we know. Let’s seize the day and conquer the clouds with the advantage of new fascinating, currently developing and emerging technologies. And let’s truly solve some of the world’s most frustrating problems all while experiencing the compelling thrust of personal aerial travel. Cars and ground level transportation will continue to be as essential as ever. Cars just shouldn’t have to carry the entire burden of personal mobility freedom. Until we fly in one, let’s continue to ask, or even demand:
“Dude, where’s my flying car?”
Tim Jackson has served 30 years in the automotive industry and 35 years in association management. Of those, 18 years overlapped as Jackson served as president/CEO of the Colorado Automobile Dealers Association (CADA), the trade association for 400 new car, truck, RV and motorcycle dealers across the state. He considers himself an avid car guy, bicycle guy and aviation guy. He supports personal choice in transportation and mobility.
