Texas Motor Speedway is the site of this week’s NASCAR Cup Series race.
You can tune into the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
William Byron enters as the defending winner at Texas. Byron is as good as any driver right now, leading the series with three wins. He’s coming off a victory at Martinsville last week.
Track position was crucial for last week’s race, and it’ll be the same story at Texas.
Saturday’s qualifying session could shift the betting market considerably.
How should you approach Sunday’s race? Here are my favorite prop bets for Cup Series racing at Texas.
AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 prop bets
Driver matchup: Ty Gibbs over Bubba Wallace (-115, BetMGM)
Ty Gibbs had an amazing start to the 2024 season, while Bubba Wallace was a mid-pack driver. Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen much more speed from Wallace and the No. 23 team.
I think the speed shifts back in Gibbs’ favor this week at Texas. He doesn’t have much success at the track, but last season’s 33rd-place finish was misleading.
Gibbs was a contender before pit road damage ruined his day. Wallace had an impressive fourth-place finish in last year’s race, but his overall speed on 1.5-mile tracks in 2024 is behind Gibbs.
The 2024 1.5-mile tracks give Gibbs the advantage. That should carry over to Sunday’s race at Texas.
Erik Jones to win Group C (+200, bet365)
Toyota driver Erik Jones is facing Daniel Suarez, Chase Briscoe and Noah Gragson for the top driver in Group C. Jones has a strong track history at Texas, and that should continue this week.
Jones finished sixth in the 2022 Texas race. He had a top-five car on speed last year but lost track position before being caught up in a late wreck.
In the last two Texas races, Suarez and Briscoe haven’t had a total speed ranking higher than 15th. It’s a much closer gap for 1.5-mile speed, with Jones slightly ahead of Suarez. This race marks Gragson’s first Cup Series start at Texas.
Jones is a solid pick to score a top-10 finish. He may not even need that good of a run to finish ahead of Suarez, Briscoe, and Gragson.
Top Ford: Chris Buescher (+650, BetMGM)
The Ford camp continues to look for its first victory of 2024. Defending champion Ryan Blaney is a heavy favorite (+100) to lead the way at Texas, with Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher representing his top challengers.
Buescher should emerge from that group and have a solid chance to knock off Blaney. Buescher had one of the cars to beat in last year’s Texas race, posting the third-best speed rating.
His speed on 1.5-mile tracks carried over to 2024, posting the same mark in this year’s Vegas race. Blaney also showed speed in that race, but Logano and Keselowski were way off.
Blaney is the rightful favorite, but the gap shouldn’t be this large. Take the value of Buescher being the top Ford driver at Texas.
Less than 22.5 lead changes (-140, Caesars)
Since a repave ahead of the 2017 season, it’s been tough to pass at Texas Motor Speedway. Ultimately, we can only look at last year’s race because it’s the only time Texas had a 400-mile race.
That race featured exactly 22 lead changes. It also included 11 cautions, including three in the final 25 laps. I expect longer green flag runs with fewer cautions for the third Texas race in the Next-Gen era.
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There’s a strong contingency at the top of the odds board with Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin and William Byron. If any of these four qualify near the front, they could hold the lead for most of the race.
Green flag pit stops will increase the lead changes. Even so, I don’t see this race featuring close to 25.