Michigan’s weather this week: Spring storm track brings first authentic thunderstorm rounds

Most of Michigan will finally be on the warm side of a storm system. Here’s the timing of two rounds of thunderstorms this week.

A large storm system hitting the western U.S. now will pull out into the Plains Tuesday and move across the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

Michigan could be in an area of severe thunderstorms based on the overall look of Wednesday’s weather pattern. At the moment, the Storm Prediction Center, NOAA’s office for severe weather forecasting, has the severe thunderstorms just south of Michigan in Indiana and Ohio on Wednesday. Over the years we Michigan meteorologists have talked about how the Storm Prediction Center tends to occasionally miss a line of severe thunderstorms in Michigan in early spring. Our early-season severe thunderstorms often don’t have the classic high instability conditions of the typical severe storms to our south and west.

On the other hand, these early-season, non-classic severe thunderstorms don’t tend to make widespread severe weather. We often get scattered 60 mph gusts with the type of set-up we see coming Wednesday.

Before Wednesday’s storminess we have two very nice days: today and Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures should warm into the 60s for most of Lower Michigan. From the Traverse City area to Oscoda and northward, it will be a little cooler and only in the 50s this afternoon. Southern Michigan from Grand Rapids to Lansing to Ann Arbor and Detroit will warm into the high 60s, making it a very nice day there.

Here are the high temperatures expected today and Tuesday.

The rain this week comes as two rounds of thunderstorms with a few showers between the T-storms. Here is the precipitation areas forecast from early Tuesday evening to Thursday morning. It gives you a good feel for the waves of rainfall with this next storm. Also note that while we could have severe wind gusts isolated in a thunderstorm, this next storm will not be a statewide strong wind producer like last week’s storm.

All of Michigan gets some showers and thunderstorms out of this weather system. There will be a round of thunderstorms late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Wednesday will have a few showers during the heart of the day. Then the final round of rain should come as a line of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. This is the line of thunderstorms that we should watch for possible isolated severe wind gusts. I’ll update you on that situation here(bookmark it) as we get closer.

Here is the total rainfall forecast. Remember not to dwell on the exact placement of a specific amount. Thunderstorms can change the arrangement of rainfall amounts. I’d call this a one-quarter to one-half inch rain with isolated spots up to one inch in stronger thunderstorms.

It will be a nice warm April rain and not a big soaker. We just have to watch for possible severe thunderstorms late Wednesday.

After the storm rolls through we will cool down for the end of the week and the weekend.

It will still be spring-like at Ann Arbor and Detroit by Saturday, but the rest of southern Lower Michigan will be stuck in the 50s. Northern Michigan will turn the furnaces back on with temperatures in the 40s.

It’s a classic mid-April week of weather coming, with some days in the 60s, a storm system with thunderstorms, and a slight cooldown.