Here we go again.
Colorado State University forecasters have predicted an “extremely active” Atlantic hurricane season for the summer and fall of 2024.
Just as the Old Farmer’s Almanac almost always predicts a harsh, snowy winter, CSU and the National Hurricane Center seem to make every Atlantic storm forecast worse than the one before.
The truth is that forecasters don’t really know what the hurricane season, which begins Jun. 1 and extends through Nov. 30, will bring. Colorado State forecasters have based their predictions on the ocean water temperatures, which are reportedly warmer than usual, and the belief that there will be less wind shear to break up storms.
Using available information, CSU has predicted 23 named storms and 11 actual hurricanes, five of which are expected to have sustained winds over 178 mph.
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This is, of course, just an educated guess. Actual numbers always vary because sea temperatures and atmospheric conditions change between spring and late fall. Still, it is something to talk about and makes people, especially those who live or have property interests along the East and Gulf coasts, aware that hurricane season is just around the corner, not that they need to be told.
Tropical storms and hurricanes are a concern to more than just property owners. Atlantic storms can also affect travelers and vacationers with trips planned for the southern East Coast, Florida, the Gulf Coast, the Caribbean islands or the east coast of Mexico. If you are heading to any of these locations between June and November, purchasing travel insurance would be a wise idea.
Hurricane forecasts give us a general idea of what to expect, but they don’t tell us what we really need to know — where the storms will hit. A 200-mph hurricane a thousand miles out into the Atlantic is of little or no concern to anyone except big ships, which can often alter their travel routes.
It is only when storms hit land, where people live, that they have a dramatic impact. But even the most expert of experts, the finest super-computers or the best artificial intelligence programs can’t tell us that months before these destructive storms even form.
We could have a dozen Category 5 hurricanes that all remain well out into the Atlantic, and they have no effect on human populations. But we could have three Category 2 hurricanes that hit highly populated areas of Florida and do billions of dollars worth of damage. It is not so much about the strength of the storm as it is about the track.
The monetary costs resulting from Atlantic tropical systems increase with every storm because more and more homes and businesses are being built along the coast and property values increase every year. Insurance premiums for beach homes susceptible to Atlantic storms are not cheap.
The predictions are out. Only time will tell how accurate they are.
Some old boy, I think from the mountains of Arkansas, has come up with a theory on why there are so many tornadoes these days.
Traffic circles.
Yep! What this guy says is that cars and trucks whirling around traffic circles are causing low-level whirlwinds that rise up into the atmosphere, become invigorated by the jet stream and drop back down to earth as tornadoes.
Don’t laugh. In 1969 my grandmother and many of her peers blamed late-summer floods on the moon landing, claiming that rockets had poked holes in the sky that were allowing torrents of rain to fall.
Scientists (and Al Gore) have been telling us for decades that humans are impacting our weather in various ways, so perhaps the traffic circle theory isn’t so far-fetched. Maybe if we all slow down in those circles we can eliminate some of the increasing number of tornadoes. Worth a try.
Finally, don’t be too hard on those weathermen who predicted tons of snow last winter. All the ingredients were there for a snowy winter, they just never came together at the right time.
With the amount of rain we had, we could easily have had 100 inches of snow if the cold air had cooperated. Unfortunately, it didn’t.
Maybe next winter.
Donnie Johnston’s columns appear twice per week on the Opinion page. Reach him at djohn40330@aol.com.