Which NFL teams’ quarterback depth charts are in the best shape heading into 2024 NFL Draft?

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Think back to the quarterback landscape two years ago around this time.

Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow had just dueled for the Lombardi Trophy. Russell Wilson was on his way to save the Denver Broncos after a blockbuster trade by the Seattle Seahawks. Aaron Rodgers, unknowingly at the time, was preparing for his final season with the Green Bay Packers. Tom Brady retired … and unretired.

Trey Lance seemed primed to lead the San Francisco 49ers for the foreseeable future, while Brock Purdy visited with teams hoping simply to be drafted. Davis Mills geared up for Year 2 as the starter for the Houston Texans, who’d just traded Deshaun Watson to the Cleveland Browns, who at the time still employed Baker Mayfield.

The constant amid the chaos in the quarterback world the past two seasons? Two more rings for Patrick Mahomes.

So, where are we now?

I’ve examined the state of each quarterback room in the league using a few of my favorite metrics (with the help of TruMedia, Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions):

Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback
Passer rating
Total QB EPA
On-target percentage
Catchable-pass percentage

Rankings are in parentheses in the EPA charts, and in the box next to the rates in the on-target and catchable-pass percentage charts. Those rankings are for individual seasons the past two years. Qualified passers attempted a minimum of 100 passes in each season.

(Note: QB depth charts as of April 15)

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AFC East

Buffalo Bills

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Josh Allen	0.19 (3)	96.6 (19)	119.0 (3)
2023	Josh Allen	0.13 (12)	92.2 (32)	103.9 (5)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ont%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Josh Allen	73.3	45	84.4	49
2023	Josh Allen	77.1	21	88.0	16

Allen’s EPA numbers consistently ranked among the top of the league each of the past two seasons. Meanwhile, his on-target and catchable-pass percentages improved from 2022 to 2023. The major questions surround whom Allen will throw to this season now that Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are playing elsewhere.

Miami Dolphins

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Tua Tagovailoa	0.18 (5)	105.5 (4)	69.4 (9)
2023	Tua Tagovailoa	0.15 (8)	101.1 (10)	60.7 (12)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Tua Tagovailoa	73.1	48	87.5	22
2023	Tua Tagovailoa	73.8	41	86.6	28

A lot of green throughout the EPA graphic for Tagovailoa. You just wish his monster EPA games had occurred against the league’s top competition. Instead, the Dolphins typically feast on inferior teams and not as much when facing playoff-caliber opponents. And there’s the little lingering issue that Tagovailoa is entering the final year of his rookie deal.

New England Patriots

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Jacoby Brissett	0.07 (26)	88.9 (45)	32.7 (23)

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2023	Bailey Zappe	-0.33 (93)	68.8 (91)	-81.2 (92)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Jacoby Brissett	72.7	55	85.5	37

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2023	Bailey Zappe	66.8	88	82.1	71

We all know the Patriots will select a quarterback at No. 3 in the NFL Draft later this month. But Brissett certainly isn’t the worst fallback option if Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye (or J.J. McCarthy?) doesn’t open the season as the starter. The veteran QB played better than Watson when filling in as the Cleveland starter during the 2022 season. I get why the Commanders went with Sam Howell, but Brissett would’ve been the steadier option last season.

New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers
Tyrod Taylor
Zach Wilson

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Aaron Rodgers	-0.03 (50)	91.1 (35)	-31.9 (73)

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2023	Tyrod Taylor	0.00 (42)	89.1 (43)	0.9 (44)

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Zach Wilson	-0.14 (77)	72.8 (87)	-41.4 (80)
2023	Zach Wilson	-0.23 (88)	77.2 (77)	-117.1 (94)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Aaron Rodgers	74.3	36	85.1	41

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2023	Tyrod Taylor	73.0	50	87.1	25

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Zach Wilson	63.2	95	74.1	96
2023	Zach Wilson	70.0	78	83.8	59

This seems like a prime time to strike for the Jets’ offense. If healthy, wideout Mike Williams and left tackle Tyron Smith could be monster acquisitions to make life better for Rodgers as he’s coming off an Achilles injury. You can’t blame the Jets for investing in Taylor, either. He’s by far a better backup option than Wilson in case of another Rodgers disaster.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Lamar Jackson	-0.01 (43)	91.1 (36)	25.1 (27)
2023	Lamar Jackson	0.07 (25)	102.7 (8)	35.6 (21)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Lamar Jackson	69.0	83	80.2	85
2023	Lamar Jackson	73.1	49	84.8	45

The charts spell out the improvements for Jackson from 2022 to 2023, which led to a second MVP award. In my weekly QB breakdowns, I referenced the uptick in Jackson’s traditional completion percentages as the season progressed. There’s no reason why that can’t continue. Adding Derrick Henry to the mix should take some heat off Jackson, possibly making the passer more dangerous.

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow
Jake Browning

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Joe Burrow	0.10 (18)	100.8 (13)	68.4 (10)
2023	Joe Burrow	-0.03 (48)	91.0 (37)	-13.5 (54)

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2023	Jake Browning	0.09 (19)	98.4 (15)	25.6 (26)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Joe Burrow	79.4	5	87.2	24
2023	Joe Burrow	77.5	17	88.6	7

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2023	Jake Browning	77.4	20	91.7	1

Burrow rebounded from a horrendous start to last season, brought on by a calf injury in training camp, and looked like the old Burrow … until suffering a wrist injury. No one anticipated Browning playing as well as he did in relief. The Bengals’ backup passed with even better accuracy than Burrow, albeit in a small sample size. That’s hard to do given Burrow’s precision.

Cleveland Browns

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Deshaun Watson	-0.14 (78)	79.1 (70)	-29.0 (69)
2023	Deshaun Watson	-0.16 (82)	84.3 (59)	-32.0 (74)

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Jameis Winston	-0.07 (63)	79.5 (68)	-11.4 (50)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Deshaun Watson	72.5	56	83.2	67
2023	Deshaun Watson	67.1	87	81.0	78

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Jameis Winston	71.3	73	80.6	81

When will Watson become worth the investment the Browns made in him? You might’ve argued “never,” even before Watson touched the field in Cleveland, but his output lends more credence to the debate. His on-target and catchable-pass percentages dropped from 2022 to 2023. Very no bueno.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Russell Wilson
Justin Fields
Kyle Allen

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Russell Wilson	-0.08 (64)	84.4 (58)	-36.9 (77)
2023	Russell Wilson	-0.05 (56)	98.0 (16)	-16.7 (56)

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Justin Fields	-0.01 (46)	85.2 (55)	2.4 (41)
2023	Justin Fields	-0.05 (55)	86.3 (52)	-21.5 (64)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Russell Wilson	71.7	69	83.4	63
2023	Russell Wilson	77.1	22	88.2	12

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Justin Fields	66.1	89	79.2	91
2023	Justin Fields	71.8	68	84.0	57

This will be one of the most fascinating quarterback battles we’ll have witnessed in recent memory. Wilson watched his numbers in all the above metrics improve from 2022 to 2023, but his 98.0 passer rating is definitely inflated given his EPA rates don’t match that number.

As for Fields, it’s a plus to see that his on-target and catchable-pass percentage numbers elevated from 2022 to 2023. Still, those numbers aren’t what you’d prefer considering they’re on the wrong side of the league’s midpoint.

AFC South

Houston Texans

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2023	C.J. Stroud	0.11 (15)	100.8 (12)	59.9 (14)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2023	C.J. Stroud	71.8	67	83.3	64

I started this study before the Texans traded for Diggs — Stroud’s EPA numbers were already exceptional during his stud rookie season without a helping hand from the All-Pro wide receiver. You wouldn’t imagine much of a drop off from Stroud after adding Diggs to the fold, right? And imagine if Stroud can improve his accuracy even a smidge …

Indianapolis Colts

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Joe Flacco	-0.15 (80)	75.2 (84)	-30.9 (70)
2023	Joe Flacco	-0.07 (62)	90.2 (39)	-13.3 (53)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Joe Flacco	65.7	90	80.3	84
2023	Joe Flacco	72.0	64	82.0	72

With Richardson having only 98 dropbacks in his rookie season, it’s still an unknown as to how well he will perform. His rates in a limited sample size should provide hope for the Colts: 0.06 EPA per dropback, 87.3 passer rating, 1.9 total EPA. That said, his on-target percentage stood at just 63.6 percent, making the accuracy knock on him from college still a question mark in the NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Trevor Lawrence	0.12 (14)	95.2 (22)	63.1 (11)
2023	Trevor Lawrence	-0.03 (52)	88.5 (46)	-31.1 (71)

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Mac Jones	-0.09 (68)	84.8 (56)	-50.9 (84)
2023	Mac Jones	-0.18 (83)	77.0 (79)	-75.8 (91)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Trevor Lawrence	78.2	10	86.0	31
2023	Trevor Lawrence	73.8	40	83.8	58

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Mac Jones	76.0	27	85.0	43
2023	Mac Jones	73.5	44	84.3	52

It has to be alarming to find all of Lawrence’s metrics down from 2022 to 2023, in every category within the study. This started before the late-season injuries for the Jaguars quarterback, though. Will that change without Calvin Ridley — and with Gabe Davis — now in Jacksonville? It also seems like bizarro world with Jones as Lawrence’s backup, given the 2021 NFL Draft ties.

Tennessee Titans

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2023	Will Levis	-0.03 (49)	84.2 (60)	-21.9 (65)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2023	Will Levis	68.9	84	81.3	75

Levis didn’t play well enough in his rookie season for the Titans not to bring in a safety net. Hence, the addition of Rudolph amid the Steelers’ QB makeover. Rudolph’s numbers ranked among the NFL’s best over the final couple weeks of last season (0.15 EPA per dropback and 118.0 passer rating on 82 dropbacks).

AFC West

Denver Broncos

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Jarrett Stidham	0.05 (NR)	89.2 (NR)	4.9 (NR)
2023	Jarrett Stidham	0.06 (NR)	87.7 (NR)	0.7 (NR)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Jarrett Stidham	70.5	NR	82.1	NR
2023	Jarrett Stidham	69.5	NR	84.7	NR

Maybe Sean Payton wants another shot, with Stidham, at being the quarterback whisperer. Stidham’s rates aren’t terrible through nearly 200 dropbacks in the past two seasons, for two teams.

Kansas City Chiefs

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Patrick Mahomes	0.27 (1)	105.2 (5)	190.2 (1)
2023	Patrick Mahomes	0.07 (22)	92.6 (28)	35.2 (22)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Patrick Mahomes	76.7	24	85.9	34
2023	Patrick Mahomes	77.8	13	86.8	27

My in-season weekly outlooks might have made it seem like I became a Mahomes hater, because I kept harping on how his EPA numbers and passer rating fell to career lows throughout the season. At the same time, I continuously pointed to his lack of weapons as one significant reason why. The fact that his on-target and catchable percentages improved from 2022 to 2023 verifies a metrics dip wasn’t necessarily all on his shoulders.

Las Vegas Raiders

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2023	Aidan O'Connell	-0.04 (53)	83.9 (62)	-16.8 (57)

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2023	Gardner Minshew	-0.01 (44)	84.6 (57)	-8.2 (48)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2023	Aidan O’Connell	72.1	63	84.1	54

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2023	Gardner Minshew	67.7	86	87.0	26

So, whom do you like as the No. 4 quarterback in this year’s draft class? McCarthy? Bo Nix? Michael Penix Jr.? The Raiders do have Minshew to serve as the backup, like he did for Jalen Hurts and Richardson the past couple of years. O’Connell and Howell should live the same existence next season as a 2023 starter-turned-2024 backup (at best, in O’Connell’s case).

Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert
Easton Stick
Max Duggan

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Justin Herbert	0.04 (33)	93.2 (26)	37.1 (20)
2023	Justin Herbert	0.07 (23)	93.2 (25)	29.4 (25)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Justin Herbert	76.6	25	88.1	13
2023	Justin Herbert	76.6	26	85.9	35

Bye bye, Keenan Allen. Adios, Mike Williams. Peace out, Austin Ekeler. No one lost more capable pass catchers this offseason than Herbert. The Chargers quarterback produced similar metrics the past two seasons. Good rates? For sure. But you’re expecting the exceptional from the 2020 NFL Draft’s No. 6 pick. How that will be possible without the aforementioned pass catchers seems far-fetched.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Dak Prescott	0.08 (21)	91.1 (34)	43.6 (18)
2023	Dak Prescott	0.18 (4)	105.9 (3)	117.1 (4)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Dak Prescott	77.7	14	87.9	18
2023	Dak Prescott	79	7	88.4	9

Prescott’s 2023 numbers were so spectacular that he rightfully landed near or atop the NFL MVP conversation for much of the season. And his performance last season ranked among the best by any QB in the past two years. Yet, the conversation continuously revolves around his future in Dallas. Another egg laid in the playoffs by the Cowboys will do that to you.

New York Giants

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Daniel Jones	0.05 (31)	92.5 (29)	41.7 (19)
2023	Daniel Jones	-0.23 (86)	70.5 (90)	-56.7 (86)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Daniel Jones	79.6	4	88.7	6
2023	Daniel Jones	72.3	59	89.2	4

You probably wouldn’t peg Jones as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL the past two seasons. His catchable-pass percentage should lend to success, right? Well, it did in 2022, leading to a Giants playoff berth. That seems so long ago, though, especially when you glance at Jones’ EPA numbers from last year before his knee injury.

Philadelphia Eagles

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Jalen Hurts	0.09 (20)	101.5 (9)	75.1 (8)
2023	Jalen Hurts	0.07 (24)	89.1 (44)	52.4 (16)

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Kenny Pickett	-0.02 (47)	76.7 (80)	-0.3 (45)
2023	Kenny Pickett	-0.15 (81)	81.4 (64)	-54.1 (85)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Jalen Hurts	78.7	8	89.0	5
2023	Jalen Hurts	75.5	29	86.2	29

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Kenny Pickett	77.9	12	84.5	48
2023	Kenny Pickett	73.7	43	82.9	69

The passer rating dip for Hurts stands out most when you examine his two-year rates. His 2023 EPA per dropback and passer rating were basically the same in 2021 (0.07 EPA rate, 87.2 passer rating). Can new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who’s on his third team in three season, revamp this offense? I’m also still trying to wrap my head around Pickett being Hurts’ backup.

Washington Commanders

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Marcus Mariota	0.02 (39)	88.2 (48)	18.6 (35)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Marcus Mariota	65.3	92	79.6	90

It will be the Daniels or Maye show for the Commanders after trading Howell to Seattle and letting Brissett walk in free agency. Mariota has proven to be ineffective, so there’s no reason not to start whichever QB the team selects at No. 2 later this month.

NFC North

Chicago Bears

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2023	Tyson Bagent	-0.10 (71)	71.4 (89)	-12.0 (51)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2023	Tyson Bagent	71.6	71	83.6	61

Giddy up for Caleb Williams. ‘Nuff said.

Detroit Lions

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Jared Goff	0.15 (7)	99.3 (14)	84.1 (6)
2023	Jared Goff	0.11 (16)	97.9 (17)	59.9 (13)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Jared Goff	71.8	66	84.8	46
2023	Jared Goff	74.4	35	85.3	39

It’s as if the light switch came on for Goff at the midpoint of the 2022 season. The illumination has made Goff one of the more potent quarterbacks, almost out of nowhere — and the Lions one of the best teams in the league along with it. Given the state of the offensive personnel, one would think Goff and the offense will produce more of the same in 2024.

Green Bay Packers

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2023	Jordan Love	0.12 (13)	96.1 (20)	75.5 (7)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2023	Jordan Love	73.2	46	84.9	44

Love found the aforementioned light switch around the midpoint of the 2023 season. Look directly at his traditional completion percentage: He only carried a 58.7 percent rate during Weeks 1-10; from Weeks 11-18, he improved drastically with a 70.3 percent clip. The Packers’ young core at wide receiver and tight end remains intact. Josh Jacobs isn’t Aaron Jones as a pass-catching running back, though.

Minnesota Vikings

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Sam Darnold	0.18 (6)	92.6 (27)	22.5 (30)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Sam Darnold	79.1	6	86.1	30

This is unintentional PR work for the Vikings. I almost couldn’t believe it myself as it was happening in the 2022 season with Darnold. From Weeks 10 to 18, the then-Panthers starting quarterback ranked third in the league in EPA per dropback rate at 0.18, behind only Goff and Mahomes. I’m sure this played a role in the 49ers bringing him over last offseason, and why the Vikings snagged him after Kirk Cousins’ departure last month.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Kirk Cousins	0.03 (35)	92.5 (31)	22.3 (31)
2023	Kirk Cousins	0.06 (28)	103.8 (6)	20.3 (34)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Kirk Cousins	78.5	9	88.0	14
2023	Kirk Cousins	75.9	28	89.5	3

I find it amusing how I often set the bar at the Cousins level for two other quarterbacks in this division, and now Cousins himself is in the NFC South. It’s been quite a few years since the Falcons employed an accurate quarterback — there’s no doubt Cousins will bring that to the table. The weapons seem in place for Cousins. Will his Achilles be right for him to produce in 2024?

Carolina Panthers

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2023	Bryce Young	-0.21 (85)	73.7 (86)	-133.5 (95)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2023	Bryce Young	68.6	85	81.3	76

Young, the 2023 No. 1 pick, yielded one of the worst rookie seasons in a minute. So the Panthers took the route another NFC South team rode for 15 years with a shorter QB under center by beefing up their interior offensive line (guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt). Plus, new coach Dave Canales helped turn around Geno Smith and Mayfield during previous stops.

New Orleans Saints

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Derek Carr	0.04 (32)	86.3 (53)	24.6 (28)
2023	Derek Carr	0.04 (34)	97.7 (18)	14.6 (37)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Derek Carr	73.8	38	82.9	68
2023	Derek Carr	77.7	15	88.0	15

Yes, the Saints are maddeningly mediocre. And yes, Carr’s first season brought frustrations. At least the quarterback’s numbers rebounded from his 2022 and early-2023 woes to give the Saints hope for a consistently better performance in 2024. Concerns at both tackle spots and a lack of weapons at wide receiver might make life tough for Carr, though.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield
Kyle Trask
John Wolford

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Baker Mayfield	-0.15 (79)	79.0 (71)	-66.8 (90)
2023	Baker Mayfield	0.06 (27)	94.6 (24)	29.9 (24)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022 (CAR)	Baker Mayfield	69.3	81	80.4	82
2022 (LAR)	Baker Mayfield	72.7	54	86.0	33
2023	Baker Mayfield	73.0	52	84.0	56

Not much change for the Bucs offense on the personnel side with Mayfield and veteran wide receiver Mike Evans being secured this offseason. This seems like the most comfortable we’ve ever seen Mayfield since being the 2018 No. 1 pick in Cleveland. How much change will there be, though, with Canales out and Liam Coen in at offensive coordinator?

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Kyler Murray	0.02 (38)	87.2 (50)	9.5 (38)
2023	Kyler Murray	-0.01 (45)	89.4 (41)	-5.8 (47)

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Desmond Ridder	-0.08 (65)	86.4 (51)	-19.1 (60)
2023	Desmond Ridder	-0.07 (61)	83.4 (63)	-43.7 (81)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Kyler Murray	80.2	1	89.8	2
2023	Kyler Murray	71.9	65	84.6	47

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Desmond Ridder	76.9	23	85.2	40
2023	Desmond Ridder	70.2	77	83.7	60

Can Murray turn back the clock to his 2021 season? The Cardinals QB yielded a 100.6 passer rating, 0.11 EPA per dropback rate and 48.7 total QB EPA mark that year. Back then, though, Murray played with weapons like DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk and A.J. Green. Even the educated fan probably couldn’t name Arizona’s current wide receivers. A No. 1 wideout should be on his way in two weeks, though, via the NFL Draft.

Los Angeles Rams

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Matthew Stafford	-0.06 (57)	87.4 (49)	-20.6 (61)
2023	Matthew Stafford	0.11 (17)	92.5 (30)	59.3 (15)

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Jimmy Garoppolo	0.14 (11)	103.0 (7)	46.1 (17)
2023	Jimmy Garoppolo	-0.06 (58)	77.7 (76)	-14.8 (55)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Matthew Stafford	73.1	47	80.3	83
2023	Matthew Stafford	69.3	82	80.7	80

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Jimmy Garoppolo	72.3	58	85.1	42
2023	Jimmy Garoppolo	69.9	79	79.8	88

Stafford’s numbers always fascinate me. He’s one of the least accurate QBs in on-target and catchable-pass percentages. And then in 2023, he was one of the most potent points producers of the last two seasons at the position. This paradox makes the Rams quarterback always fun to watch, as a non-invested spectator like myself. The 2024 squad will need the offense to shine after the retirement of all-world defensive tackle Aaron Donald.

San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy
Josh Dobbs
Brandon Allen

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Brock Purdy	0.15 (10)	107.3 (2)	21.1 (32)
2023	Brock Purdy	0.26 (2)	113.0 (1)	132.8 (2)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Brock Purdy	72.2	60	88.3	11
2023	Brock Purdy	75.1	31	85.7	36

Purdy has played incredibly well the past two seasons (including well enough for the 49ers to be in position to win Super Bowl LVIII). There will be detractors even if/when the quarterback guides San Francisco to a Super Bowl title. Purdy’s individual results are staring you in the face: He’s one of the best QBs in the league. You can believe it or not — but if you don’t, just know you’re wrong.

Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith
Sam Howell

EPA metrics

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2022	Geno Smith	0.03 (37)	100.9 (11)	4.2 (40)
2023	Geno Smith	0.06 (29)	92.1 (33)	22.7 (29)

Year	player	EPA/DB	Psr Rt	Total EPA
2023	Sam Howell	-0.12 (74)	78.9 (72)	-87.1 (93)

On-target/catchable percentages

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2022	Geno Smith	78	11	87.9	17
2023	Geno Smith	75.5	30	86.0	32

Year	Player	ONT%	Rank	Ctch%	Rank
2023	Sam Howell	71.1	74	84.3	53

Smith’s accuracy percentages fell a little bit, but they were still good among his peers. His passer rating dropped nearly 10 points from 2022 to 2023, but his EPA rates improved last season. All of this was good enough for the Seahawks to go 9-8 in consecutive seasons. How will he react in a new system? Trading for Howell seems like a sneaky smart move for Seattle.

(Top photos of Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and C.J. Stroud: Dustin Satloff, Cooper Neill, Rob Carr / Getty Images)