When’s the rate cut?
Here’s the latest. Consumption levels in America are rising. That’s because people are earning and spending more. Since the US economy is two-thirds driven by household cash flow, things are hot. The GDP is swelling at a robust rate. Inflation’s hotter than expected. US manufacturing has done a U-turn and is now rebounding after 16 months of misery. The S&P500 hit over 20 new highs in the last three months.
As a result, markets are betting the Fed rate cut in 2024 will be 65 beeps, not the 75 considered a week ago. Bond yields have advanced as investors look for an inflation premium. The odds of a June rate cut have fallen to 50%. Mr. Market is actually expecting rates to be higher in the coming months than the CB itself does.
Complications? Yeah, politics. Gaza. Putin. Trump.
Eight months out from the November presidential vote – which will be epic, historic and global, no matter the outcome – Fed boss Jerome Powell is aware that a series of rate cuts eating into the final weeks of the campaign will be viewed by the Trumpers as purely political. Trump has already indicated he wants Jay’s head on a stick, so anything that happens in terms of monetary policy will be consequential.
The next shoe to drop?
That’s the jobs report this Friday. For over two years now the American unemployment rate has been below 4%. That’s a remarkable thing, after 11 interest rate hikes, post-pandemic inflation, supply-chain messes and the advent of two disruptive wars. If the non-farm payroll report is a corker at the end of this week, the first rate cut will come in July, not June.
But one things is for sure. The tightening cycle is over. No rate hikes. And in Canada, things are drastically different.
Recently this pathetic blog gave you some of the reasons rates may decline sooner here than there. Our economy is barely growing, enterprise failures and loan defaults are mounting, the big banks are setting aside billions for bad loans, hundreds of thousands of businesses could not repay their Covid loans, over $200 billion in mortgage renewals are coming and governments continue to pile on debt, as corporate revenues fall and politicians fail at budgeting. We’re the most indebted country in the western world on a household basis. Average families cannot afford average homes. The unemployment rate is rising and the public mood souring, leading to lower spending. To cap it all off, yesterday we learned Taylor Swift has cancelled her Canadian dates. (Sadly, it was an April Fool’s prank.)
As for housing, the March numbers will be interesting when released tomorrow. To date the pattern has been one of slightly higher sales, far higher inventory and sticky prices. Mortgage rates have declined about 1% since their apex, and governments everywhere have been obsessed with real estate. Rents have increased. Vacancy rates have declined. And Ottawa has just jumped into the fray with a ‘bill of rights’ aimed at tenants.
In short, America has huge problems and is doing peachy. We have problems and not much is getting better. So the odds of the Bank of Canada moving in advance of the Fed have taken a big leap forward.
Chances of a June chop by our guys is 64%. A half point drop by September is being put at 68%. For a CB rate three-quarters of a point lower in December the betting is 76%. And for a bank rate a full 1% less by this time next year = 66%.
Will these reductions be enough to revive housing and shoot prices skyward again, making everything worse and causing the steerage section to herniate?
It looks unlikely. We’ll know soon. If March stats are dishwater it’ll be an indication that one towering leg of the maple economy is teetering.
Will we get lower property prices and an earlier rate cut amid cooling inflation stats?
That scenario is closer. It’s the one afterwards you might worry about.
About the picture: “This is a picture of Captain, sweetest dog ever,” writes Donna. “He eats bunny’s food and drinks bunny’s water just to show who’s boss. Keep up the good work Garth trying to educate us Beavers, we need you. Financial Management should be taught in school!”
To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘[email protected]’.
91 comments ↓
Rates need to stay higher for longer.
Or, the federal government sees the light & realizes we need to expand our oil & gas industry to make some money to pay for all the nonsense.
Low interest rates for 20 plus years have caused many issues & the bill must be paid with higher rates for longer – there is no other option & unfortunately many people will feel pain.
But, there is still so much money floating around in Canada – check what a ticket costs to go to an NHL hockey game in Canada – go buy a new vehicle – go to a restaurant – so much money still…
This is why we desperately need more realtors to save our economy.
Please sign up. You can start your course this weekend and finish very quickly.
I believe it will mostly depend on the inflation numbers going forward. I know it’s very little to the total numbers, but carbon tax just increased yesterday and minimum wage will be going up in October to 17.20 an hour in Ontario. That’s a 3.9 % increase.
Good luck with cutting rates before the Feds, food inflation will skyrocket, clearly Americans aren’t as obsessed as Canadians with RE. Canada is a financial mess. Renters bill of rights lol. Clearly this a great way to find out which landlords aren’t declaring income. What a mess. Bank of Canada, OSFI and govt should be ashamed of themselves allowing these debt levels to happen
I posted City of Vancouver sales yesterday on this blog.
They are less than March 23.
Yes higher than February, but that’s not much to boast about.
Still going further in debt with our tax dollars. Another $6 billion today for housing
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/justin-trudeau-budget-housing-1.7161005
Another $1 billion yesterday for school food
program.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/national-school-food-program-announcement-1.7160384
Shouldn’t be allowed to spend our money like this getting ready for the election.
Unleash the rate changes…..
Garth I’m starting to think that you actually like Taylor Swift. You may actually be the oldest swifty. You seem to mention her a lot lately. I can picture you in the tool shed listening to Taylor Swift songs when nobody is looking. You don’t need to hide we are the steerage section, some of us are really strange.
Continually propping up Canada’s asset-based economy with rate cuts is not a strategy that will help increase our nation’s productivity.
We have to make the hard choice.
Time to take away the training wheels.
Turns out we are not the 52nd state with access to the reserve money printer.
A couple days ago I said there is no new real science being performed; we are going backward, health is on the decline. Here is the data.
(Our Rulers will never ever tell us the cause; you must figure it out)
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db492.htm
The infant mortality rate was 560.4 infant deaths per 100,000 live births in 2022, an increase of 3.1% from the rate in 2021 (543.6).
Age-specific death rates increased from 2021 to 2022 for age groups 1–4 and 5–14 years and decreased for all age groups 15 years and older.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU00074597
Population – With a Disability, 16 Years and over
— —
Permanent Climate Rules, DEI Rules = permanent inflation.
We were trained on Rules, 2020-2022. Follow the Rules Comrade. Do not ask why.
https://fortune.com/europe/2024/02/27/chocolate-cosmetic-prices-soar-europe-new-cocoa-law-requires-firms-prove-every-bean-import-didnt-contribute-deforestation/
Chocolate and cosmetic prices could soar on Europe’s new cocoa law that requires firms to prove that every bean they import didn’t contribute to deforestation
Oil prices are close to $90 barrel….what if they hit $100?
Will this kick start inflation problems?
Canadians with mortgages need to renew every five years, whereas in the United States, they typically have 30-year mortgages. I believe this discrepancy may be a contributing factor to Canada’s economy slowing down rapidly relative to that of the USA.
@#6 Baillingsford
“Shouldn’t be allowed to spend our money like this getting ready for the election.”
+++
We haven’t seen anything yet.
It will be another 18 months of budget busting, deficit expanding, political promises.
The future of the country be damned.
Count on it.
All very predictable, a soft landing idea made no sense. Looks like we are headed to real choppy waters – if we cut before the fed, possibly multiple times….weaker dollar which will put upward pressure on inflation, and mortgage still renewing at 2x previous rates. Hard to see housing not tipping over and a deep recession in the making.
I think the bill for all this excess the past 15 years is coming due. Of course it had to correct, Covid WAS the roaring 20s, this is what comes next.
Alberta is doing just fine thank you.
What inflation? The price of hot pizzas just went up 20% overnight at my local bodega caffe.
My financial site subscription rose 25% this month.
RIP Middle Classes. I expect price adjustments almost monthly here in this Former First World Country. But it’s not runaway inflation.
— —
Our tax dollars at work guys. Soooo glad he is not like the other guy – who has been in office, forever.
We spread democracy.
War, Corvid = Unlimited power to our Rulers. What’s not to like?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_presidential_election
Presidential elections were scheduled to be held in Ukraine on 31 March 2024 according to the constitution, which mandates elections be held on the last Sunday of March of the fifth year of the incumbent president’s term of office.[1][2][3] However, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, since 24 February 2022 the Ukrainian government has enacted martial law, and Ukrainian law does not allow elections to be held when martial law is in effect.[4][5][6]
There’s a reason the USA is beating Canada: productivity.
One example? America is now the world’s leading exporter of LNG. Meanwhile Canada hums and haws, and the federal government blocks LNG projects. Insanity.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/us-lng-exports-natural-gas_n_660aea66e4b007c08f9e6c36/amp
This Liberal Gov is the most inept group of people running this country ever. They are delusional and have no business running a lemonade stand let alone a country. They have spent us into oblivion. Our economy and social fabric as a nation have eroded over the past 7 years. God help us!
Stop wih the partisan bleating. This addds nothing to the blog. – Garth
Correct. Can RE Spring Rut is floundering as rate cuts fail to materialize. Prices are dropping fast in many markets as stock balloons. Fixed rates surge as bonds climb. As oil passes $90 and actual inflation spins higher.
Cough**I-told-you-so**cough
Yes. Rates will finally taper down a teensy, weensy, little bit likely in ‘25. Until then, we shall enjoy ever lower lows and highs.
I think the Spring housing market, if it looks balanced and healthy (i.e. reasonable inventory, no careless bidding wars) should bode well for a June rate cut. If the economy truly looks skittish, then higher, later could have a salutatory effect, however…
The structural issues with the economy are not going away any time soon, regardless of current rates.
We don’t have a demographic crisis, we have an economic crisis driven by our inability to address demographic issues.
For instance, why are we borrowing money to give benefits to people who don’t really need it, especially at this point in our demographic cycle?
Is the FHSA going to make homes more affordable? No, but it will certainly add to debt in the form of lost tax revenue.
Debt servicing costs will be escalating as the economy fails to grow (we’ve proven in the short term that our current immigration structure stunts economic growth rather than drives it) and as government is asked to provide more services to a greater cohort who cannot contribute to these increasing costs.
As a country we’re going to have to do some truly uncomfortable things. In the short term GIS will need to increase and the OAS clawback will need to begin at a much lower threshold.
We will probably need to increase the GST back to 7 cents but consign the vast majority of the new money to infrastructure spending.
We should increase the corporate tax rate (including small business) but consign much of the additional revenue to address our biggest productivity challenge; how poorly Canadian business invests in training, skills development and R&D.
We will need to reform EI and the CPP; the latter reform to eventually reduce/eliminate the need for GIS, the former to address major gaps in coverage and contribution.
We need to invest in ourselves and also those who work on our behalf. Anyone who can vote should have the ability to put their name forward to run for office. If you win, the expenses of moving/living in Ottawa and your salary should reflect your new responsibilities.
However, I don’t think it is unreasonable that an element of the compensation is merit based.
I also think a series of scholarships open to all Canadians in all ridings to study public service and sit for exams could be used as a factor in determining merit pay for office holders. Is it really unreasonable to sit for 5 exams after 2-3 years of part-time studies (or write challenge exams for those with work/skill/academic experience) for office holders to get the last 20-30 percent of their full wage?
Yes, post-Trudeau Canada is rife with ever increasing financial, economic, revenue, taxation, consumer debt, and public debt debacles.
On top of that though, it also has a social ills time bomb ticking away. Cultural, Ethnic, and Religious strife, homelessness, substance abuse, exploding antisemitism, violent crime, sinking health care, overloaded schools, flaccid government services, mental health crises, maxed-out food banks, overflowing shelters, foreign interference, revolving door court systems, rising job losses, business failures, stupid home prices, skyrocketing rents. States of emergency being declared, and billions worth of funding being demanded.
Pay attention kids, this will take the balance of your working careers to fix. If it ever does. I don’t think Canada has ever been in worse shape, with a less capable leadership. It ain’t changing anytime soon now, no matter who’s in charge. In fact, my bet is it’s going to get even worse. We’re only just starting out down this road. Way too much damage has been done, the inertia alone would maintain the status quo for a decade, even if we slammed on the brakes tomorrow. Which we will not.
You want some good advice? Forget about employment income saving the day. You need it – *plus* liquid assets growing to keep your head above water. In post-Trudeau Canada, you now need both. Stay out of the Metros, bulk that portfolio, max those shelters, avoid taxation like the plague. Live with purpose, resolve, and do so simply, and quietly among the masses. Design this ability into your life, and win.
The pharmacy called. Your meds are in. – Garth
With all the data trending towards rate cuts…why did the markets have a cow today?
The US data suggested higher for longer, not lower sooner. A 1% drop does not constitute a cow. – Garth
Tesla (TSLA) shares are trading lower Tuesday after the company for first quarter deliveries.
Or, another way to say that, analysts were wrong. How do ‘analysts’ get a pass like that?
So, when we see:
“For a CB rate three-quarters of a point lower in December the betting is 76%. And for a bank rate a full 1% less by this time next year = 66%.”, we should acknowledge it comes from RE Agents who wear suspenders (Fin analysts)… who can then blame their expectations were missed.
wha???
sorry, cutandpaste error
after the company missed analysts’ expectations for first quarter deliveries.
#14 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.24 at 2:47 pm
@#6 Baillingsford
“Shouldn’t be allowed to spend our money like this getting ready for the election.”
+++
We haven’t seen anything yet.
It will be another 18 months of budget busting, deficit expanding, political promises.
The future of the country be damned.
Count on it.
========
That’s right. You are witnessing the narcissistic personality on full display, unbending and about to go on hyper mode. “…how can the populace not love me, I’m the best leader anyone has ever had”
yup, full melt down coming.
Thanks Garth!
It’s sort of funny the way western civilization has come to place such importance upon fabricated concepts as money, debt and credit.
Similar to labrador retrievers with tennis balls. Tennis balls aren’t really important, but to a non-hunting labrador (one without actual purpose in life), they become the be-all and end-all.
The lesson, it appears, is to discover your purpose and pursue it. Tennis balls and money might be part… but definitely not the most important.
The US data suggested higher for longer, not lower sooner. A 1% drop does not constitute a cow. – Garth
Ah. Thanks Garth. I jumbled that up in my mind. Makes sense.
I’m just gonna keep investing.
CONFUSED AS TO THE DIRECTION OF RATES?
No problem. It’s easy to believe whatever you want to believe. Just take a view and read a report that will reiterate something you want to hear. Works every time.
For those with mortgages coming up for renewal, look to be frog marched into the boney fingers of your local banker. For the debtor, there will be no slinking around looking for a rate comparison. Hoping there might be a better rate hiding behind all the others. Horror of horrors, there will be “ONE” rate, ultimately determined by the banker with at least half an eye on his Christmas bonus. For those who can afford to, they will pay top dollar, for those who can’t, well, its been nice to know you. Merry Christmas, to one and all.
#22 IHCTD9 on 04.02.24 at 3:05 pm
Yes, post-Trudeau Canada is rife with ever increasing financial, economic, revenue, taxation, consumer debt, and public debt debacles.
On top of that though, it also has a social ills time bomb ticking away. Cultural, Ethnic, and Religious strife, homelessness, substance abuse, exploding antisemitism, violent crime, sinking health care, overloaded schools, flaccid government services, mental health crises, maxed-out food banks, overflowing shelters, foreign interference, revolving door court systems, rising job losses, business failures, stupid home prices, skyrocketing rents. States of emergency being declared, and billions worth of funding being demanded.
Pay attention kids, this will take the balance of your working careers to fix. If it ever does. I don’t think Canada has ever been in worse shape, with a less capable leadership. It ain’t changing anytime soon now, no matter who’s in charge. In fact, my bet is it’s going to get even worse. We’re only just starting out down this road. Way too much damage has been done, the inertia alone would maintain the status quo for a decade, even if we slammed on the brakes tomorrow. Which we will not.
You want some good advice? Forget about employment income saving the day. You need it – *plus* liquid assets growing to keep your head above water. In post-Trudeau Canada, you now need both. Stay out of the Metros, bulk that portfolio, max those shelters, avoid taxation like the plague. Live with purpose, resolve, and do so simply, and quietly among the masses. Design this ability into your life, and win.
The pharmacy called. Your meds are in. – Garth
———-
All the above ills are happening, and increasing. No question about it whatsoever.
The run of the mill kids will definitely need more than employment income in future Canada to win. No question about it whatsoever.
At least for the next 20 years. Longer if Trudeau pulls off an upset.
#25 Jeffinguelph on 04.02.24 at 3:16 pm
sorry, cutandpaste error
after the company missed analysts’ expectations for first quarter deliveries.
They didn’t just miss analyst’s expectations, they missed them by a mile. Kilometer, whatever.
There is no BoC “fix” to what ails the economy (outside of Alberta, which is booming)
More free money causes more inflation. Most of what people need is effectively priced globally (US$), especially food and energy.
Is the ruling class going to do an about face on industrialization and energy? (No, they aren’t) It will take things getting much worse, and then a change at the top. Could be a rough next 18 months.
“The US data suggested higher for longer, not lower sooner. A 1% drop does not constitute a cow. – Garth”
LOL Cows are actually fairly calm animals especially when compared to bulls. This is why they don’t have the running of the cows in Pamplona, Spain. Although that would be much more funny and much less scary.
In Calgary, RE is still ‘hot’. Came home today to yet another flyer giving stats on latest sale within the local area – they even specified number of showings & offers – which is a gentle hint that should we be interesting in selling, talk to the realtor on the flyer asap. If local realtor board stats are to be believed, the ‘average’ sales price of a SFH in Cowtown is now north of $700K. Still very affordable by GTA or YVR standards, but underlines that your ‘average household income’ is rapidly being priced out of the market for SFH. Still lots of multifamily housing options for under $300K available & technically, still some SFH for under that amount available too. Said SFH is for ‘modular’ aka ‘trailer’ homes. On foundations or blocks, so not mobile homes. However not certain if the actual land beneath said housing is included in the sales price. Given the prices, don’t think so.
Continuing my 2024 experimental investment strategy.
YTD gain 5.9% v SPY 10.2%
Aprils NASDAQ Relative Strength allocation.
12.5% MU
12.5% CEG
12.5% PCAR
12.5% FANG
12.5% CTAS
20.0% GLD
20.0% GSY
#101 Albertaguy in AB on 03.03.24 at 12:38 pm
My goal in 2024 is to gain 30+% with max drawdown <20% and down volatility < 10% using a NASDAQ Relative Strength Model re-balanced monthly.
YTD gain 5.1%
This month:
15% NVDA
15% CEG
15% META
15% AMD
40% GSY
We’re the most indebted country in the western world on a household basis. Average families cannot afford average homes. The unemployment rate is rising and the public mood souring, leading to lower spending.
Nothing to worry about people lol – get back on the Insta/ticktock/facebook/X and dont worry about a thing hahahahahahaha
I really hope you are right about the US Garth, because if they do well in the future so will we.
A rate cut, sooner than the Muricans, will have unintended consequences.
70 cent loonie anybody?
Higher costs of imported food and goods for sure.
BoC jas boxed themselves into a corner.
18 months to go
Higher interest rates in the US relative to Canada would cause the US dollar and hence US dollar investments to rise. This is because bond investors seek out the highest rate.
Maybe you didn’t notice US rates are already higher. – Garth
CUT TEH RAAATES!!!
That will fix thing.
#22 IHCTD9 on 04.02.24 at 3:05 pm
Yes, post-Trudeau Canada is rife with ever increasing financial, economic, revenue, taxation, consumer debt, and public debt debacles.
———————-
My poor little town along hwy 11 isn’t taking the latest 34 tax hike too well. Council hasn’t had a quorum lately to even have a meeting. Our very own “coup d’état” unfolding right before my eyes. Town workers on strike now for 6 months, with even Rachel Notley joining in on the fun. Sunshine just revealed our CAO in our town of 2500 made as much as Doug Ford. All communication is now done on Facebook. Did I miss anything?, just the juicy details.
3 ft of ice still on the lakes, walleye season closes soon, gotta go!
“Our economy is barely growing, enterprise failures and loan defaults are mounting, the big banks are setting aside billions for bad loans, hundreds of thousands of businesses could not repay their Covid loans, over $200 billion in mortgage renewals are coming and governments continue to pile on debt, as corporate revenues fall and politicians fail at budgeting.”
Really? I was at the car dealership today trying to negotiate a deal. I ended up walking even tho I made a very fair deal for 30K difference for a 6 year trade. My car is low miles and spotless and a luxury vehicle which I bought at that dealer. So much for brand loyalty.
Apparently, they say, no one wants a pristine used sedan car with a 1.9 year extended warranty.
Sorry folks, I can’t help with Canada’s GDP and your employment. F’em.
Nothing wrong with my car and it’s been trouble free since new, so I’ll just keep it. They can keep their vehicle with unknown reliability.
Funny thing is, they got 150 vehicles sitting ( I checked their website) and they don’t want to sell them.
As for housing, the March numbers will be interesting when released tomorrow. To date the pattern has been one of slightly higher sales, far higher inventory and sticky prices. Mortgage rates have declined about 1% since their apex, and governments everywhere have been obsessed with real estate. Rents have increased. Vacancy rates have declined. And Ottawa has just jumped into the fray with a ‘bill of rights’ aimed at tenants.
Justin Trudeau has just jumped into the fray with his “bill of rights” aimed at tenants. Steve Saretsky made his views clear. At 10:00: I never dealt with a potential home buyer who said “I’ve been renting but I am not able to build credit”. This has happened zero times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RB53pyLbbI
Justin Trudeau is looking for support. He has probably hired focus groups to see if he got it.
Hey, neat! Suburban poverty. Whod’a thunk? The money is flowing into Urban areas.
A nice paper (link below), skinned through it today, will sit down with a coffee and read it again in the morning.
Now Suburbia is a container for a growing percentage of those who are classified as poor. And, with N-P saying that yearly car costs are close to 17k in after-tax income, they are getting REALLY stuck in suburbia.
(I’d say “ditch the car” but that sounds mean, despite being a life-saver. Look, car costs are a huge line-item for anyone looking closely at their finances – the young lady in London ON who had a 6k $$ transmission repair job a while ago could probably chime in…)
Some quotes, for those who don’t read scientific papers:
Title: “Pathways to suburban poverty in nine Canadian metropolitan areas”:
“Many urban regions have witnessed inner-city gentrification and growing concentrations of poverty in the suburbs over the past several decades ”
“and how living in auto-oriented suburban environments can reduce accessibility and the ability to travel to daily activities …, which can further compound poverty in suburban areas”
So, maybe, those in the know understand that living where cars are not required is a path to health and financial success??
Link to NP Car-cost article: https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/cost-of-owning-a-car
Link to paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264275124000623#bi0005
(thanks for the pic of Captain and his BFF!)
Just keep calm and go about your business.
Add and rebalance into the B&D every 6 months.
In the 2020s it’s not about ostentatious displays of wealth. If you drive a Rolls in Toronto you are basically inviting a car jacking. It’s open season on the rich.
Meanwhile for the landlord class, your tenants might simply refuse to vacate the apartment.
When times are tough, it’s all about “Stealth Wealth”.
Driving a Corolla in jeans, a baseball cap and a t-shirt… living in humble but comfortable rented accomodations…. yet massively invested in a diverse range of highly liquid ETFs that give you exposure to the largest companies in the world, and that can be bought and sold within 5 minutes.
There’s no need for a “side hustle”, when investments throw off both dividends and capital gains.
Owning bling is out. The priority is assets, flexibility, free time, and FU money.
The heaving unwashed masses will have no idea how wealthy you really are.
And the deepstate wokesters who have engineered expectations of a fake eclipse next Monday are rubbing their hands in glee over what this will all bring to the economy.
Coincidence?
I think not. I think not.
@#29 Classic Conservative Boomer
“I’m just gonna keep investing.”
+++
Me too.
Get the idea of cuts out of your brain—they ain’t happening. Rates will move up in 2025 too. No better way to get people to consume less than if they are not able to take on more debt. Plus the way we’re spending ,it’s all inflationary,oil is on it’s merry way up and besides 5% is nothing,nada…we’re adapting to it just fine. By 2030 we’ll look back and wonder,”were we nuts worrying about 5% interest rates?” Do we really need 2-3% money to have an economy? That really ain’t much of anything other than some kind of house of cards.
Canadian interest rates may well come down by as much as 3/4 of a percent this year but that is it for years to come. Inflation pressures will keep interest rates steady for a long time until there are meaningful consumer and government debt reductions or massive unemployment in Canada.
#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.24 at 4:51 pm
@#29 Classic Conservative Boomer
I’m just gonna keep investing.
———
Me too.
———
Ditto.
There is that number, that barring total system collapse, ensures perpetual security.
Play the game well and reach that number early. After which, in the delivery of Yoda:
‘Work or work not, there is no must’
“Here’s the latest.
Consumption levels in America are rising.”Thor Turner.
//////////////////////////////////
Don’t know how reliable this number is, I think I might have affected it last week.
I was in an Atlanta supermarket and I saw a beer and wine rep, so I went and asked him the most important question.
For a fella from out of town what local beer can you recommend?
He recommended Classic City Lager from nearby Athens, Georgia.
I liked it, only 4.2% alcohol but it goes down easy and didn’t taste too watery like a lot of North American brews.
I don’t drink much in Canada anymore, it’s not that I think American beer is any better, more to do with the fact I’m on holiday.
Anyway I bought a box of 12 cans, I had 2 beers a night which is about my limit now that I drink for fun and don’t treat it like a sport anymore.
Ok, one night I was feeling it and went crazy drank 3 cans…
M49BC
https://creaturecomfortsbeer.com/beers/classic-city-lager/
#46 Steve French
When times are tough, it’s all about “Stealth Wealth”.
I have always lived this way. If I look “poor” then peeps will leave me alone.
March volume was WAY low… and the increase in volume from February (which happens every year) was also WAY lower than normal.
Prices BARELY budged, but were higher MoM… but, this R.E. market is POOCHED.
Sentiment rules the day!
35 Linda on 04.02.24 at 4:06 pm
In Calgary, RE is still ‘hot’. Came home today to yet another flyer giving stats on latest sale within the local area – they even specified number of showings & offers – which is a gentle hint that should we be interesting in selling, talk to the realtor on the flyer asap. If local realtor board stats are to be believed, the ‘average’ sales price of a SFH in Cowtown is now north of $700K. Still very affordable by GTA or YVR standards, but underlines that your ‘average household income’ is rapidly being priced out of the market for SFH. Still lots of multifamily housing options for under $300K available & technically, still some SFH for under that amount available too. Said SFH is for ‘modular’ aka ‘trailer’ homes. On foundations or blocks, so not mobile homes. However not certain if the actual land beneath said housing is included in the sales price. Given the prices, don’t think so.
********************************
Since the days of the railroad going west land/housing speculation has been a thing. Even in the Klondike the same thing happened.
“Maybe you didn’t notice US rates are already higher. – Garth”
That is correct I did not notice that.
The only thing that will get Canada back into first world status is expansion of O&G,forestry,mining, and agriculture…everything else is done better by India and China…(other than carbon taxes of course)
Strange the Lib’s can’t figure this out.
We had a massive port strike in BC over the summer, yet I haven’t heard one person mention this in regard to less than ideal GDP growth. Did that not massively affect our economy last year? And if so, doesn’t that then portend a possible bump in our economic numbers in 2024 compared to 2023?
I don’t know, I’m just asking. But I was listening to power and politics yesterday and there was no mention of the massive port strike that was top news all summer last year. It was the 3rd quarter. Nobody is drawing a line to it as if it had never happened.
history is rhyming loudly
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/03/25/takeover-hitlers-final-rise-to-power-timothy-w-ryback-book-review
Carbon tax hike will cause extra inflation – this reduces the chances of the summer rate cut.
Carbon tax hike slows down the whole economy – this increases the chances of the summer rate cut.
Does not compute. More elaborate modelling is required. One thing is clear – it’s a double win!
Buying A House In Canada Has Never Been Harder, Years To Correct: RBC
https://betterdwelling.com/buying-a-house-in-canada-has-never-been-harder-years-to-correct-rbc/
“The bank made special note of those historically affordable markets, now at their respective worst affordability levels ever. A median buyer needs to spend roughly half their income in Ottawa (49.9%), Montreal (53.3%), and Halifax (45.3%).”
Congratulations, Canadian politicians. Your policies have essentially broken the social contract. More and more Canadian youth will move abroad for a genuine chance at a middle class life. Those that remain will work 60 hours a week to afford a shared basement rental until they drop dead.
Heaven forbid we actually take tangible action to rein in demand, but we can’t hurt MPs’ personal real estate empires, after all.
Tiff is waiting too long. Rate increases or cuts take time to filter through the economy. Oil’s popping as expected. It’s gonna hurt.
Is Lulu really the only manufacturing company on the TSE heat map?
Shouldn’t be too hard for all of us to support the sector, if there is only one company.
But, do they even manufacture product for straight men?
One wonders if Global warming continues….when the last snow plow operator in Canada will be laid off….and we can retrain them to prune palm trees…
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/windsor-salt-idled-warm-weather-1.7161044
#42 Bezengy on 04.02.24 at 4:37 pm
#22 IHCTD9 on 04.02.24 at 3:05 pm
Yes, post-Trudeau Canada is rife with ever increasing financial, economic, revenue, taxation, consumer debt, and public debt debacles.
———————-
My poor little town along hwy 11 isn’t taking the latest 34 tax hike too well. Council hasn’t had a quorum lately to even have a meeting. Our very own “coup d’état” unfolding right before my eyes. Town workers on strike now for 6 months, with even Rachel Notley joining in on the fun. Sunshine just revealed our CAO in our town of 2500 made as much as Doug Ford. All communication is now done on Facebook. Did I miss anything?, just the juicy details.
3 ft of ice still on the lakes, walleye season closes soon, gotta go!
———
Yeah, I’ve read about it. Sucks. 90% chance I’ll end up along 11, and you can be sure I’ll be attending every town hall. I can be a little unrefined…. Said meaningless northern hamlet CAO will wonder if 200+K is worth it if I move in next door – you can believe it.
Google “Walleye wings”. I hear they’re great!
@ #8 I’m Stupid
Garth I’m starting to think that you actually like Taylor Swift. You may actually be the oldest swifty. You seem to mention her a lot lately. I can picture you in the tool shed listening to Taylor Swift songs when nobody is looking. You don’t need to hide we are the steerage section, some of us are really strange.
——————————————————————
I bet he secretly listens to Drake and Adele too.
No surprise… you lot are clearly humorless.
Et tu CEF?
So let me say it…
RIP Count Floyd, thanks for the many laughs.
@#67 It Rocks!
“Et tu CEF?”
+++
Humor, humid, hummus, humans….?
Similar yet offensively, offal-ly ….different.
#66 Hiding on the Backstreets on 04.02.24 at 7:01 pm
And I bet that John Pasalis is his realtor, and statistician :-)
#32 Ustabe on 04.02.24 at 3:57 pm
#25 Jeffinguelph on 04.02.24 at 3:16 pm
sorry, cutandpaste error
after the company missed analysts’ expectations for first quarter deliveries.
They didn’t just miss analyst’s expectations, they missed them by a mile. Kilometer, whatever.
Xxxxxxx
Kinda explains why I’m seeing tesla Ads on youtube now.
#19 Barzy
#22 IHCTD9
#31 IHCTD9
The first two comments seem to have elicited a rather disparaging reply from Mr. Turner. Post #31 is a good reply to Mr. Turner.
As a Canadian ex-pat who has been coming back to Toronto for six month intervals these for these past four years, the decline in this country is palpable. The productivity level of Canadians has significantly decreased. The amount of indebtedness has increased. The health care is in a shambles. People cannot get a GP or family doctor? How can they access healthcare? The federal government seems at a loss to do anything constructive. Their incompetence on so many levels is shattering. The government in Ontario releases a budget that increases the debt level of the province.
What happened to my country?
“Consumption levels in America are rising. That’s because people are earning and spending more.”
-People are indeed spending more paying much higher prices and getting less and less. And as wages are not keeping pace with real inflation, much of the spending is being done on credit now at all time highs.
“The GDP is swelling at a robust rate.”
-If it wasn’t for government spending and borrowing and consumers spending on credit, the GDP would have been in negative territory each quarter the past 18 months. Even those numbers have undergone an extensive process of manipulation.
“For over two years now the American unemployment rate has been below 4%.”
-For more than 2 years (much longer) the unemployment rate has been hacked to pieces just to look good when in fact it is anything but. 85 million Americans out of work no longer accounted for after 1 year being unemployed.
Most jobs filled the past 2 years have been part time jobs where one person averages working 2 even 3 of those jobs … each one of those counted as 1 FT job on the employed sheet greatly distorting unemployment stats.
“But one things is for sure. The tightening cycle is over. No rate hikes.”
-Yes over, with QE to infinity on its way.
– One thing that is indeed sure is that rate hikes will need to be in the double digits to even begin to take on the inflation that’s going rocket into each and everyone’s lives 2025 into 2026 and beyond.
“Will we get lower property prices and an earlier rate cut amid cooling inflation stats?”
-inflation has only one way to go in this economy and that is up. No question mark there.
Today’s photo is a good example of why bunnies have an IQ level 4.5X higher than the average dogawful mutt.
#55 necessary on 04.02.24 at 5:15 pm responded
35 Linda on 04.02.24 at 4:06 pm
In Calgary, RE is still ‘hot’. …
********************************
Since the days of the railroad going west land/housing speculation has been a thing. Even in the Klondike the same thing happened.
*******************
And consider the origin of the term “landed gentry”. At one time only the upper class owned land in England and the peasants (surfs) did not. Are we headed back that way as the real world capitalist game of monopoly seems to end up with all the wealth in few hands eventually? I really favor capitalism but sometimes it needs to be reigned in.
Inflation relentless. Just got the email, a digital subscription is going up 16%.
I cannot wait for my home insurance renewal :-(
#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.24 at 6:51 pm
One wonders if Global warming continues….when the last snow plow operator in Canada will be laid off….and we can retrain them to prune palm trees…
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Such a deep thinker. /s
In Canada, the peasants and surfs can’t even afford a shoebox in the sky? Actually the bottom 60% of earners. This is nuts.
It’s ‘serfs’. – Garth
So I did a review of my 60/40 Bal. and Div. portfolio and it is now just a hair over the Dec. 31/21 all time high after 27 months. It’s been a slow road back. Thankfully I had nice returns of 15.8 in 2019, 14.2 in 2020, 11.5 in 2021 then 2022 came along and down 11.7. 2023 was a bummer until near the end of the year but returned 9.2. So far YTD 4.9%. So for this year am thinking that 14% is certainly not impossible given the previous couple years.
Interest rates should be at least 10% given the real rate on inflation.
Twelve-fifty for an eyeball, and eight bucks and a half for a beer? Happy hour, happy hour, happy hour is here.
OK…so denial is your way to go. Garth you can’t expect “ Quislings” and Liberal collaborators to get away without extreme penalty when Canada breaks free of the WEF Facist puppet Trudeau.
I imagine a state of revenge such as was witnessed in the streets of Holland where traitors were dragged out in the street and whipped… or summarily executed. The anti Trudeau riots are just a beginning. Our red maple will take on a new meaning.
#59 jess on 04.02.24 at 5:56 pm
history is rhyming loudly
—
Yep, target the fringe such as trans people first. Dehumanize them. Then it’s easy to justify acts of violence. From there move to homosexuals and from there start crushing women’s and the rights of racialized people. Before you know it you have an underclass that deserves their repression if not the gas chamber. Muh free speech is all fun and games till the lunatics on the right start gunning people down.
#75 TurnerNation on 04.02.24 at 10:26 pm
I cannot wait for my home insurance renewal :-(
________________________________
If you can get one!
We had a visit from the ‘risk assessment officer’, Officer!
He thoroughly admired every aspect of what he saw, we’re still in the loop.
Felix, sad news. Killer dogs.
https://nationalpost.com/news/local-news/boy-11-dies-after-attack-by-two-large-dogs-in-edmonton-monday-night-police/
All I’m saying is they better be put down immediately, but also I want to see a criminal punishment for the owner. These are his weapons that did this.
@#1
Move to the head of the class.
Trouble is, Canuckleheads never learned the lessons Americans (intelligently) learned back in ´07-´08. I spoke to some and they understood the consequences of having gorged on RE and debt.
Rates do need to stay higher for longer as it is the only way out of our one-trick pony of an economy. Huge cash needs to be sucked out of the system and we need a new governing guard. The run-up to the election is a time of misguided spending priorities with obscene amounts of government revenue wasted on garnering votes.
Canada is not in a good fiscal place. Those with no assets, or worse, with debt, are in for an amped-up world of hurt.
Short-term thinking by most. People here have well and truly been manipulated into losing their minds with RE.
If rates drop, the gorging will reignite. Canada is not even treading water, it is sliding backwards fast and the current fiscally retarded crew at the helm need to be replaced.
ASAP.
A Million Simulations, One Verdict for US Economy: Debt Danger Ahead
Bloomberg Economics ran a million forecast simulations on the US debt outlook. 88% of them show borrowing on an unsustainable path.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-01/us-government-debt-risk-a-million-simulations-show-danger-ahead?embedded-checkout=true
#84 maxx
You will see more posts like this as investors find out that the longer you hold the worse it will get, waiting/subsidizing an asset for a hoped capital gain is what is happening now.
Even if rates come down this will be offset by depreciation by volume as other condos come onto the market along with the ever rising maintenance fees( a lot of posts claim fees of over $900 a month) and special assessments that are sure to crop up as well. Buyer beware even if rates go down.
https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/1bukzj3/is_it_worth_owning_a_condo_in_downtown_toronto/
Yeap , just as expected. The spring market was pulled forward by the marketing hype and it lasted a few hours in February, and now it’s over.
TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK
#53 Get Off My Lawn
I have always lived this way. If I look “poor” then peeps will leave me alone.
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It’s getting expensive to look poor.
I just bought a new worn-out looking denim shirt and some XLT t-shirts, to go with my ratty jeans (purchased at a US Walmart for $13). Other than the jeans, the shirts cost a fair buck at one of those “western wear” stores in Alberta.
But, yes, people do leave me alone when I’m dressed in that get up.
I call it the “mental patient” outfit.
#71 Reynolds 753
What happened to my country?
———————————————————————————————————-
Trudeau.
SJWs
Wokesters
Lack of Discipline
Entitlement
Free Covid Money
Political Correctness
Denial
Rabid Environmentalism
Debt Orgy
Deviation from basic Logic
Unions
Poor Educational Standards
Gender Dysphoria
Absence of Fiscal Prudence
Dismal Political leadership
Carbon Taxes
Virtue Signalling
Dumb Kids
Kow Towing to Special Interest Groups
Decline in Strict Law Enforcement
DEI
Lack of Accountability
Catering to the Lowest Common Denominator
Liberal NDP Coalition for Power retention at the Expense of Progress
I am a Westerner Dharma bum, so my list would also include the massive transfer of Western tax $ to points East. You know, the same cultural group that Justin was so quick to pressure Jody Wilson – Raybould into looking the other way to protect their overall interests. Also to the detriment of rule of law in Canada and the interest of all law respecting Canadians.
Here are the TREBB GTA detached home sale prices for March for the past 4 years. When you factor in inflation, 2024 home prices are not even flat, they are on a decline. As Garth mentioned, March 2024 was very mild and sunny. Where were all the buyers?
March 2020: $1,465,826 ($1,694,127 in today’s dollars)
March 2021: $1,750,518
March 2022: $1,920,018
March 2023: $1,708,373
March 2024: $1,708,437
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