|
We're only about three weeks into the season, but let's pull out the old crystal ball and look ahead three months into the future to July 30 -- MLB trade deadline day. What might happen? Who might be traded? This is a little exercise we'll call the Way-Early Trade Deadline Extravaganza Preview. We're going to list the one player (or sometimes, two) for each team who is most likely to be traded, focusing for the most part on major leaguers but we'll also include some prospects. This is an exercise of looking through rosters, surveying the players in free agent years who are more likely to be traded if a team is faltering and considering which teams will be adding -- or subtracting. (That is especially difficult this year since we only have a few obvious teams that won't be playoff contenders.) In last year's edition, we correctly hit on seven players who were traded during the season: Lucas Giolito, C.J. Cron, Michael Lorenzen, Aroldis Chapman, Luis Urias, Luis Patino and JJ Bleday (who was traded before the season but after we completed this exercise). Another three -- Jarred Kelenic, Ryan Pepiot and Dominic Fletcher -- were traded this past offseason. Shohei Ohtani, you might recall, was not traded. Who will we be right about this year? Let's get to it.
 Arizona DiamondbacksTrade candidate: Justin Martinez The Diamondbacks' most likely area of need will be the bullpen, which doesn't usually require giving up a top prospect. I'm sure several teams would like to roll the dice on Martinez, one of the hardest throwers in the sport -- but possessing "Nuke" LaLoosh's control before the "Bull Durham" character learned to breathe through his eyelids. Martinez made a few appearances with Arizona last season and topped out at 102.7 mph but walked 11 batters in 10 innings (and walked 48 in 49⅓ innings in Triple-A, where he's back to begin the 2024 season).
 Atlanta BravesTrade candidate: Owen Murphy The Spencer Strider injury points to one potential trade direction: starting pitching. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel ranked the Braves' farm system just 28th entering the season, however, so any deal for a decent starter would likely be a 3-for-1 type of transaction. The team's only top-100 prospect is pitcher Hurston Waldrep, who looked like a potential midseason call-up but allowed 11 hits and seven runs in his first start in Double-A, so maybe not. Murphy was the No. 20 pick in 2022 and will likely have to improve his velocity to become an impact starter, but he came out of the gate with 6⅔ scoreless innings in High-A and was an athletic two-way player in high school.
 Baltimore OriolesTrade candidates: Heston Kjerstad/Coby Mayo Even with Jackson Holliday now up with the major league team, the Orioles' Triple-A lineup remains stacked, including top-100 prospects Kjerstad and Mayo. The Orioles already landed one frontline starter in the offseason in Corbin Burnes. Will general manager Mike Elias make a play for another one? Here's what I see: Kjerstad is an outfielder also playing some first base. Mayo is a third baseman also playing some first base. There's a reason for that: Neither is that good at those positions (otherwise they wouldn't be playing first base). In Double-A, the O's have Samuel Basallo, a 19-year-old catcher whose bat is more advanced than his glove. In other words: There could be a future logjam at first base/DH ... freeing the Orioles up to make another blockbuster trade for a pitcher.
 Boston Red SoxTrade candidates: Chris Martin/Tyler O'Neill OK, I recently made the Carolina Reaper prediction that the Red Sox will represent the American League in the World Series. Hey, anything is possible. More likely is that they're looking up at the playoff race come July 30 and decide to deal away a couple of their free agents-to-be -- and, yes, we can already hear the outrage from Red Sox fans. Martin is your prototype trade deadline move: a veteran reliever with postseason experience who will help a bullpen with his ability to pound the strike zone. O'Neill is also heading into free agency and is off to a blazing start. Let's see if he can stay healthy and keep hitting, but if he does, the lack of middle-of-the-order bats available could make him one of the most sought-after position players at the deadline.
 Chicago CubsTrade candidate: Alexander Canario The fact that the Cubs didn't go all-out this offseason to improve the club suggests the front office is taking a slow, steady approach to the present and future, so I think they hold on to their top prospects from the second-ranked farm system in the majors. That means keeping Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cade Horton, Owen Caissie, Matt Shaw and Kevin Alcantara. They have plenty of other intriguing players, including shortstops Jefferson Rojas and Cristian Hernandez, but let's go with Canario. He played six games for the Cubs in 2023 and isn't a big-time prospect, but he's pretty much ready for the majors and blocked in Chicago. He could bring back a bullpen arm. If the Cubs end up needing an impact starter, they have the minor league depth to pull off a deal.
 Chicago White SoxTrade candidates: Michael Kopech/Mike Clevinger It's going to be a long, miserable season for the White Sox ... heck, it has already been a short, miserable start -- so we know they'll be willing to deal anybody. Kopech is the guy to watch here. He's back in the bullpen where his control issues aren't as much of an issue and he's averaging 98.5 mph with his fastball. He's not a free agent until after the 2025 season, but the White Sox should absolutely look to trade him now as he could be an impact arm for a playoff team. Clevinger signed late and is just getting going, but he's on a one-year deal. Given the potential lack of starting pitchers available, he could also draw interest if he's performing.
 Cincinnati RedsTrade candidate: Sal Stewart It's not exactly clear what the Reds might need: an outfielder, maybe a second baseman with Matt McLain out after shoulder surgery (although they aren't ruling out a possible return in August), a bullpen piece, a starting pitcher like everyone else. The Reds have a young team and an interesting farm system with six players in the preseason top 100, so their aggressiveness and willingness to trade from the farm will be tied to their place in the standings. With Elly De La Cruz, Jonathan India, McLain and Jeimer Candelario, the Reds are set in the infield for the next three years. Five of their top 10 prospects are also infielders, so that's the area of depth to trade from (although Noelvi Marte is serving a PED suspension and Edwin Arroyo had season-ending shoulder surgery). Stewart, No. 71 on the top 100, is a third baseman with power potential and the feel to hit. He and Cam Collier are on a similar timeline, so the Reds could trade one of the two.
 Cleveland GuardiansTrade candidate: Juan Brito The season-ending injury to Shane Bieber hurts the Guardians' playoff hopes but also means there won't be a summer of Bieber trade rumors as he heads into free agency. Even if the Guardians do stay in playoff contention, I wouldn't expect any big moves to supplement the roster: They didn't make any trades in 2022 at the deadline (and won the division anyway). Their one area of depth is the infield, with Brito and Jose Tena currently in Triple-A and nowhere for them to play in the majors as Jose Ramirez, Brayan Rocchio and Andres Gimenez are all locked in for the long term. Brito and Tena may ultimately project as utility types, but they could be used in a package to get pitching help or, god forbid, an outfielder.
 Colorado RockiesTrade candidate: Elias Diaz This is a long shot. The Rockies rarely make significant trades and love to keep their core players, even if they're mediocre. Diaz is a pending free agent, however, and is 33 years old, so he doesn't project as a long-term solution for the Rockies even if they wanted to bring him back in 2025. They do have Drew Romo in Triple-A as their potential catcher of the future. The catcher market is always thin, and Diaz might be the best available, even for a team just looking to improve its backup situation -- similar to the Astros in 2022, when they acquired Christian Vazquez to back up Martin Maldonado (and Vazquez ended up starting the clinching Game 6 of the World Series).
 Detroit TigersTrade candidates: Jack Flaherty/Sawyer Gipson-Long The Tigers are facing a difficult dilemma: Javier Baez is signed through 2027 at a total cost of nearly $100 million. He can still pick it at shortstop but his offense, which was nearly unplayable last season, has deteriorated to unplayable status so far in 2024. Even his once formidable power is now non-existent: He hit just nine home runs last season and has yet to hit one this year. We're getting to the point where the Tigers must consider eating the contract and cutting bait. At the minimum, do they look to upgrade offense at shortstop? Maybe they'll eventually go with in-house option Zach McKinstry or maybe they go after Milwaukee's Willy Adames. Either way, they do have starting pitching depth to deal from.
 Houston AstrosTrade candidates: Brice Matthews Are we witnessing the demise of the Astros? It has been a horrific start -- witness Hunter Brown's recent nine-run first-inning disaster -- with pitching problems and injuries up and down the staff. It might just be one of those years, although for now I still have the Astros looking to add at the deadline rather than subtract. Matthews, an athletic shortstop with power and speed and strikeout concerns, was the team's first-round pick in 2023 after putting up huge numbers at Nebraska. Jeremy Pena blocks him at shortstop and Jose Altuve at second base, so he's potential trade bait. If the Astros continue to struggle, their big pending free agent is Alex Bregman, who certainly will add some spice to the trade deadline if he becomes available.
 Kansas City RoyalsTrade candidate: Will Klein I originally had Will Smith here, but that was assuming the Royals weren't going to be competitive and would eventually look to cash in the veteran closer for a longshot pitching prospect -- Smith, after all, has pitched for the past three World Series winners, so any contending team should want him as a good luck charm of sorts. Well, given their impressive start, maybe the Royals want him. If they are in fact surprise playoff contenders, Klein is the kind of relief prospect who often moves in a trade: He throws in the upper 90s but has been wild and not polished enough to help a contender just yet.
 Los Angeles AngelsTrade candidate: Matt Moore As much fun as it would be to speculate about a Mike Trout trade, the most likely scenario here is that Trout remains with the Angels, the team falls out of the playoff race and Moore is traded. Left-handed relievers are always in demand, and Moore is one of the best: Indeed, his 2.20 ERA over 2022-23 tops all left-handed pitchers with at least 100 innings. He's also on a one-year, $9 million contract, making him enticing and affordable for any team.
 Los Angeles DodgersTrade candidate: Jackson Ferris Will the Dodgers actually need any help? Sure, there are some holes here. The outfield is a potential issue as Chris Taylor looks helpless at the plate, James Outman has struggled and Jason Heyward -- who's no guarantee to replicate his fine 2023 in the first place -- has been injured. It's pretty easy to envision a scenario where Mookie Betts moves back to right field and the Dodgers acquire a shortstop or simply trade for an outfielder. The bullpen doesn't look particularly deep either. The Dodgers remain deep in both pitching and position player prospects to make any deal they want. Ferris is a 6-foot-4 lefty, acquired in the offseason from the Cubs for Michael Busch, with big-time bat-missing ability but also reliever risk due to command and delivery issues.
 Miami MarlinsTrade candidates: Jesus Luzardo/Josh Bell/Tanner Scott The Marlins' season is already in ruins, which means new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix is going to be fielding a lot of calls in July. Or maybe not. Do the Marlins have anyone that interesting to trade away? Bell and Scott are pending free agents, so they fit that stipulation, but Bell's $16.5 million is an impediment while Scott, after a terrific 2023, has lost the strike zone early on. The interesting name here, if the Marlins just want to blow everything up, is Luzardo, who still has two more seasons of team control ahead of him. It would require a steep prospect package to acquire him, but the Orioles and Cubs -- with Kiley's top two farm systems -- could very well be looking for a difference-maker in their respective rotations.
 Milwaukee BrewersTrade candidate: Willy Adames The Brewers are playing well and Adames has been their cleanup hitter to begin the season, which would seem to make him an unlikely trade candidate. But that hasn't stopped the Brewers before. They traded Josh Hader at the 2022 deadline even though they were in first place. Or maybe the lesson there is they traded Hader while in first place and ended up missing the playoffs. Still, Adames is heading into free agency, and Joey Ortiz can replace Adames at shortstop -- and if the Brewers are in the playoff hunt, they will need some pitching help. Teams such as the Tigers, Giants, Red Sox or even the Dodgers (if they move Betts back to the outfield) could all be in the hunt for a shortstop.
 Minnesota TwinsTrade candidate: Max Kepler After substantially cutting payroll, I wouldn't expect the Twins to do anything that requires adding significant salary. Last season they were one game up on Cleveland and only traded Jorge Lopez for Dylan Floro a few days before the deadline. Perhaps they were still feeling the sting of 2022, when they traded away Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Yennier Cano, Cade Povich, Ian Hamilton and Gipson-Long -- all useful major leaguers except for Povich (who is Baltimore's top pitching prospect) for a bunch of players who are no longer on the team. And they finished 78-84 that season. That was a perfect example of going for it gone wrong. So let's just throw out Kepler's name since he's heading into free agency, and the Twins might want to save a couple million bucks.
 New York MetsTrade candidates: Pete Alonso/Jose Quintana Nobody has hit more home runs than Alonso since he began his career in 2019. He's a huge fan favorite who has proven he can handle playing in New York. He's also heading into free agency, will be entering his age-30 season in 2025 and plays first base, a position teams prefer not to lock up with long-term deals. The emotional side of the brain says the Mets need to re-sign him, even if it means a bit of an overpay. The rational side says president of baseball operations David Stearns has little interest in a player who may be a risky bet to keep performing at a high level in his 30s. That makes a potential Alonso trade the most controversial of potential deadline deals. Of course, all bets are off if the Mets are in the playoff race. In that case, they should ride with Alonso (and Quintana, also a free agent) and then see what happens in free agency.
 New York YankeesTrade candidates: Everson Pereira/Chase Hampton The Yankees are deep in interesting -- some might say overhyped -- prospects who could be traded to improve the roster, most assuredly to find some pitching help. We'll start with Pereira. He lost some shine when he got called up last season and hit .151 while going homerless in 93 at-bats. Overmatched, he's back at Triple-A, but he's also behind Jasson Dominguez and Spencer Jones on the future outfield depth chart. Either Hampton or Will Warren is the team's top pitching prospect. The Yankees could be in the aforementioned mix for Luzardo -- although given the Marlins' need in the outfield, that could mean parting ways with Jones.
 Oakland AthleticsTrade candidate: J.D. Davis We'll focus on the veterans on one-year contracts, a list that includes Davis, Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, Aledmys Diaz and relievers Scott Alexander and Trevor Gott. Any or all of them could go, although Davis feels like the best bet as a useful bench-type bat who can play third or first base. He's making $2.5 million, so even the cheap organizations could afford him. Wood and Stripling will have to pitch better than they have so far to become interesting trade candidates for a contender.
 Philadelphia PhilliesTrade candidate: Starlyn Caba The Phillies are pretty set with their roster and the addition of Spencer Turnbull, who began the season with two scoreless starts while filling in for Taijuan Walker, gives them a sixth starter as needed. You never know what may pop up during the season, however, and it's possible they eventually just move Brandon Marsh back to center field on a full-time basis and look for a left fielder if Whit Merrifield and Johan Rojas continue to struggle at the plate. While trade partners will surely ask for pitchers Andrew Painter or Mick Abel, the Phillies are unlikely to part with either one -- even if president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is never shy about trading away prospects. The Phillies do have a couple young shortstops in the lower rungs of the farm system in Caba and Bryan Rincon, with Rincon a couple years older but Caba possessing a higher ceiling.
 Pittsburgh PiratesTrade candidate: Aroldis Chapman Chapman has twice before been involved in midseason trades, and he's a strong candidate to move once again. In 2016, the Cubs sent Gleyber Torres to the Yankees, and Chapman became the final piece of their bullpen as they went on to win the World Series. Last season, the Royals traded him to the Rangers for Cole Ragans, which looks like an absolute steal for the Royals (although Chapman was a key performer in the postseason as the Rangers won it all). Chapman is on a one-year deal, and even if the Pirates are somewhere close to the playoff hunt in July, the temptation to find their own Ragans may be too much to resist. David Bednar's early struggles as closer do make it less likely that Chapman will be traded, but we also know that under this ownership, the Pirates are unlikely to bring on much -- if any -- payroll at the deadline, no matter where they are in the standings.
 San Diego PadresTrade candidate: Ha-Seong Kim Are the Padres contenders or pretenders? In the wide-open National League wild-card race, I suppose they're contenders. The Dylan Cease trade right before the season started certainly suggests that the Padres are unlikely to pack it in if they're close in the standings, but if things do fall apart, Kim would be an intriguing trade possibility. His original deal was four years and $28 million with an $8 mutual option for 2025, but he could double that salary in free agency given his value in 2022-23 (10.7 WAR). With the Padres' payroll situation, it might be a long shot to re-sign him -- and they do have other shortstop options for 2025 such as Xander Bogaerts or moving Jackson Merrill back to his original position (although he has looked so good in center field that it may now be his permanent position).
 San Francisco GiantsTrade candidate: Hayden Birdsong The Giants are the ultimate "just get in" team. With Logan Webb and Blake Snell in the rotation, plus the upside of Jordan Hicks and Kyle Harrison, they are the team most likely to sneak into the playoffs and then go on a Diamondbacks-like run. That makes them potential deadline adders, even if they're off to a slow start. Birdsong, who was a sixth-round pick in 2022 as a reliever out of Eastern Illinois, exploded last year as a starter in the minors with 149 strikeouts in 100⅔ innings. He'll get a tougher test in Double-A, but he's the kind of prospect teams will ask for.
 Seattle MarinersTrade candidates: Logan Gilbert/Michael Arroyo The Mariners haven't looked good early on -- still too many strikeouts on offense, a mediocre defense, injuries in the bullpen and subpar starting pitching -- so there's a scenario where they are scuffling under .500 in late July and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto starts looking ahead to 2025. Trading Gilbert, who is under team control through 2026 and whose contract starts getting expensive next season, could jump-start that by landing them the impact hitter this lineup desperately needs. In that case, turn to the Orioles, Cubs, Yankees and Dodgers as potential trade partners. If that's a little crazy of an idea, Arroyo is a young infielder with potential but is behind both Cole Young and Colt Emerson on the organizational depth chart.
 St. Louis CardinalsTrade candidates: Paul Goldschmidt/Thomas Saggese This is a tricky one. Goldschmidt is a pending free agent, which alone makes him a potential trade candidate. He turns 37 in September, so an extension or re-signing isn't a sure thing either. Plus, the Cardinals are forcing Jordan Walker into right field right now when his future defensive home is probably first base. On the other hand, Goldschmidt has 10-and-5 rights, so he can veto any trade, and if he's having a good season at the plate, it's more likely that the Cardinals are in the division race and will want to keep him. Let's then throw out Saggese, who came over from the Rangers last trade deadline in the Jordan Montgomery deal and hit .312 with 26 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A. Kiley had him as the Cardinals' No. 5 prospect entering the season, but Nolan Gorman and Nolan Arenado block him in the infield at second and third base.
 Tampa Bay RaysTrade candidate: Isaac Paredes This is admittedly a long shot since Paredes still has three years of team control after this season and is coming off a 31-homer campaign while settling in as the team's cleanup hitter so far in 2024. The Rays are thin in the rotation thanks to all the Tommy John surgeries that piled up last season. And they do have other options at third base in Curtis Mead, who is currently on the 26-man roster, and Junior Caminero, ESPN's preseason No. 3 overall prospect who began the season in Triple-A. Trading Paredes would require Caminero to tear it up to the extent that you can't leave him on the farm -- definitely possible -- and they'd need to get a young major-league-ready starting pitcher in return. It's a tough trade to match up on, but it's the kind of deal the Rays excel at.
 Texas RangersTrade candidate: Andrew Heaney If the Rangers make any additions, it will certainly be on the pitching side of things -- although keep in mind they're hoping to get Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle back at various points, with Scherzer perhaps beating his initial timetable and returning before the All-Star break. If all three do make it back, Heaney is an odd man out in the rotation. The Rangers could move him to the bullpen like they did at times last season, but he's also trade bait since he'll be heading into free agency (he's making $13 million, so the Rangers might have to eat some salary to get something back). Another interesting name to watch: Jack Leiter, the former second overall pick who struggled in the minors last year but is off to a good start in Triple-A. He could turn into a viable option as a starter, in relief or in a trade.
 Toronto Blue JaysTrade candidate: Addison Barger Barger had a big year in the minors in 2022 but failed to match it in 2023 as he dealt with a right elbow issue. While he played some shortstop last season, he has been limited to third base and right field at Triple-A Buffalo in 2024 and has power potential if he can start getting the ball in the air more often. He could even get a shot with the Blue Jays considering Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier are off to bad starts at the plate (well, frankly, the entire offense is struggling). Orelvis Martinez, now playing second base at Buffalo, is the more intriguing prospect with in-game power that has shown up more consistently, but the Jays are more likely to keep him.
 Washington NationalsTrade candidates: Jesse Winker/Joey Gallo/Eddie Rosario I'm going to cheat here and list all three of these veteran players, as they're just placeholders until James Wood and Dylan Crews arrive (Wood is tearing up Triple-A while Crews is struggling in Double-A). I mean, I don't think contenders will be speed-dialing the Nationals to acquire any one of them, and no team hoping to play in October will play Winker in left field like the Nationals have. But Winker is looking better at the plate after dealing with injury issues last season and could help as a DH or bat off the bench. Rosario hasn't hit at all yet and Gallo is Gallo: power, walks, strikeouts and frustration with the added bonus of some defensive versatility.
|
