Denver Post sports writer Patrick Saunders with the latest installment of his Rockies Mailbag.
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It’s wild to me that tickets for the home opener are still available. But it’s hard for me to pony up $80 to go see this team play. Why aren’t we doing what the Broncos are doing and going into a full-blown rebuild mode? It’s not like we have a great foundation to build upon. A 100-loss season with another one on the horizon doesn’t exude a lot of confidence. Revamp that front office, keep just our young prospects, trade everyone else for prospects, and bring back that Generation R vibe. We rebuilt and made the World Series in a few years after we did that in the mid-2000s.
— Franklin K., Lakewood
Frank, I’ve thought about this a lot. I’ve also looked into the comparisons with the “Gen-R” team that eventually went to the World Series in 2007.
I started covering the Rockies in the summer of 2005 when I left the Broncos beat. The Rockies were terrible in ’05 (67-86) and a little better in ’06 (76-86). But there was some young talent starting to bloom: Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe, Garrett Atkins and Troy Tulowitzki, who made his debut in late 2006. Future Hall of Famer Todd Helton was the veteran anchor.
The ’06 pitching staff featured starters Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook and Josh Fogg, as well as closer Brian Fuentes.
That “Generation R” game plan was very similar to what the Rockies are trying to do now. The problem is that the current Rockies desperately need new starting pitching. General manager Bill Schmidt has been stockpiling pitching prospects in hopes of finding quality. We’ll see how it plays out.
The Rockies have already seen left-handed prospects Ryan Rolison (the Rockies’ top pick in 2018), Sam Weatherly (a third-rounder in 2020) and Helcris Olivarez (from the Latin American program) undergo shoulder surgeries and they are not in the club’s immediate plans.
At some point, general manager Bill Schmidt is going to have to pull off a bold trade to spark the current rebuild.
Hi Patrick, I’ve been perturbed ever since the Shohei Ohtani signing. I want your opinion on clubs’ ability to defer massive amounts of money to subvert the luxury tax. I realize that the Dodgers didn’t break any rules, but it seems to me that the rich keep getting richer, making it more difficult for mid-market teams to compete. Do you think MLB would ever change the rules? I think teams should have to pay now and pay later … maybe 60% & 60% (yes, I know that doesn’t add up to 100%). Am I just bitter because I am a fan of a small/medium market team?
— Joe B., Highlands Ranch
Joe, that’s a great question. I agree that Major League Baseball’s financial landscape is wildly out of balance. If MLB had a system similar to the NFL’s, with a hard salary cap and true revenue sharing, more teams would have a chance to compete.
Rockies owner Dick Monfort feels the same way. As The Denver Post’s Troy Renck wrote recently after his one-on-one interview with Monfort: “The payroll disparity between the haves and have-nots rankles Monfort in a sport without a salary cap, something he hopes baseball finds a way to ultimately address.”
But I doubt that will happen anytime soon, especially since powerhouse franchises like the Dodgers, Yankees and Cubs have their own TV networks.
For those unaware, Ohtani signed a mind-boggling 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers, but the superstar is deferring $68 million of his $70 million average salary, an idea that came from Ohtani himself. In other words, Ohtani agreed to defer $680 million of his $700 million deal. The deferred money is to be paid out without interest from 2034 to 2043.
That means Ohtani will earn just $2 million per year from the Dodgers ($20 million in total) over the on-field life of the contract. This gives the Dodgers salary flexibility, allows them to sign other high-priced free agents, and eases their burden relative to the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT, also known as the luxury tax).
The financial gymnastics of the deal are interesting. This is how MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand explained the mechanics of the deal:
“A team’s Competitive Balance Tax figure is determined using the average annual value (AVV) of each player’s contract on the 40-man roster, plus any additional player benefits. If there was no money deferred, the AAV on Ohtani’s contract would be $70 million. However, any money deferred outside the term of the contract is calculated using its present-day value.
“Because the value of a dollar decreases over time, the contract has a present-day value of roughly $460 million for the purposes of the CBT, given that so much of it is deferred for more than a decade. Therefore, the Dodgers will have a CBT payroll hit of roughly $46 million per year for the next 10 years from Ohtani’s contract. Essentially, Ohtani offered to defer this much money in order for the Dodgers to have payroll flexibility to continue building a winning team.”
On the surface, what the Dodgers did with Ohtani doesn’t seem fair, but small- and mid-market teams like the Rockies could also defer money on big-money contracts if they wanted to take the risk.
On the plus side, the expanded playoff format gives the underdogs a chance. We saw that last season when the wild-card Diamondbacks, who won just 84 games in the regular season, swept the Dodgers in the National League Division Series and advanced to the World Series. For all of their money and power, the Dodgers have won just one World Series title in the last 35 years, and that came during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
That was a rough opening series for us, Patrick. Our starters combined for 17 innings of work for an 11.65 ERA and we were outscored 32-14. I’m hoping this team gets better, but that was a brutal weekend of baseball. It’s going to get better, right?
— Mark, Arvada
Mark, it can’t get much worse, though it got pretty bad on Monday with the Rockies’ 5-0 loss to the Cubs.
We all knew that Colorado’s starting pitching would be a problem, and although the first turn through the rotation was worrisome, there is no way Kyle Freeland (38.57 ERA) Cal Quantrill (9.00), Austin Gomber (7.71) and Ryan Feltner (5.40) are as bad as their initial starts indicated.
That said, the pitchers need to clean up some alarming things quickly, starting with all of the lead-off walks they issued.
The jury is still out regarding Colorado’s offense, but the poor starts by Kris Bryant (0 for 14, eight strikeouts, one walk) and Brendan Rodgers (3 for 23, seven strikeouts, no walks) are concerning.
Patrick, can you please explain why the Rockies traded for Jake Cave? The Rockies already have so many outfielders, and it’s unclear as to what he brings to a team (given that they already have veteran outfielders Charlie Blackmon and Kris Bryant). Thanks!
— Renee, Cody, Wyo.
Renee, it’s actually pretty simple. The Rockies didn’t think Sam Hilliard or Bradley Zimmer were going to give them what they wanted as the fifth outfielder, especially in terms production at the plate. Cave is, essentially, a part-time player and an emergency option in case starting center fielder Brenton Doyle gets hurt or goes into a deep funk.
Hi Patrick, what’s your best-case scenario for our team this season? Like if Kris Bryant returns to his MVP form, Charlie Blackmon gets a sip from the fountain of youth, our younger rising stars (Nolan Jones, Brenton Doyle, Ezequiel Tovar) take a bigger step than expected and our rotation punches above its weight. I know everyone’s projecting another 100-loss year, but I’m trying to be optimistic here.
— Marshall, Parker
Marshall, I don’t think the Rockies will lose 100 games, even though they came out of the gate 1-4. I predicted a 65-97 record, a very small step forward but realistic. If everything comes together, and the club gets big seasons from Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers, I suppose a 75-win season is possible. But that will be as good as it gets.
Why didn’t the Rockies make a play for a reasonably priced veteran starter like Michael Lorenzen? First, he seems like he wouldn’t break the bank since he’s still unsigned. Second, based on the Rockies’ payroll last year and their complete lack of spending this offseason they should have some fun money left. Third, the Rockies have no pitching depth, and while I’m glad they’re embracing the rebuild, it doesn’t seem like it’s good for the team’s development to have another year of completely non-competitive pitching.
— Isaac Bowen, Fort Collins
Isaac, since you sent in your question, Lorenzen signed a one-year, $4.5 million contract with the Rangers on March 22. The Rockies did talk with Lorenzen’s agents early in the process but nothing got worked out.
Lorenzen, a first-time All-Star last season with Detroit who threw a no-hitter for Philadelphia after being traded, didn’t garner a ton of interest, which is part of the reason why he wasn’t signed until late.
Also, he was not a very good pitcher the second half of last season. After a great start with the Phillies, Lorenzen went 2-2 with a 7.96 ERA in his next five starts and was dropped from the Phillies’ rotation. His last four appearances were out of the bullpen, and he was left off the postseason roster for the National League wild-card series.
Finally, to land Lorenzen, the Rockies would likely have overpaid to entice him to pitch at Coors Field.
Michael Toglia’s been a stud this spring! Do you think this is the year he finally lives up to the hype?
— Mike, Denver
Mike, Toglia had an excellent spring training and he led the team with five homers. Still, I was surprised when he made the big-league team out of camp because the Rockies have a logjam at first base and in right field. Will he live up to the hype of being a first-round pick? Time will tell, but I think he’s learned some hard lessons as I pointed out in a recent story. He seems like he’s in a good place; relaxed and confident.
Why not take a run at Trevor Bauer? He states he just wants a chance to play and won’t cost much money. He’d probably be the ace.
— Shad Michael Seperich, Commerce City
The Rockies, like every other team, have been scared off by his history. Namely, his record-long 194-game suspension for violating MLB’s domestic violence and sexual assault policy. This is what USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote in early March when Bauer pitched against Dodgers minor leaguers: “While there were about 150 to 200 fans on hand on the back fields, including his parents, his agent and several fans wearing Bauer jerseys or ‘Bring Back Bauer’ t-shirts, there was not an MLB scout or Dodger executive in sight.”
Bauer can still throw a 99 mph fastball but, apparently, teams don’t think he’s worth the risk, even for the major league minimum salary.
Patrick, thanks for all you do covering the Rockies. With Jaden Hill throwing well this spring, could he earn a high-leverage role in the second half of this season? One figures he will need some seasoning, and time to transition into relief outings, especially on consecutive days, but his arsenal could be a benefit once he’s ready. Thanks and be well.
— Gregory Jewett, Syracuse, N.Y.
Gregory, thank for reading, it’s appreciated. Hill had an excellent spring training — for the most part. He had a couple of bad outings before he was sent down to minor league camp. But he impressed manager Bud Black and the coaches with his aggressive approach and powerful arsenal.
Hill, 24, a second-round draft pick out of LSU in 2021, could be in the Rockies’ bullpen this season, possibly before the All-Star break. Hill underwent Tommy John surgery before the draft and struggled with back and right shoulder pain last season as a starter for High-A Spokane. He was 0-9 with a 9.48 ERA. He’s a reliever now, with a big upside, but he needs to be more consistent to earn a promotion to the majors.
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