Optimistic Democrats vow to retake Florida. GOP numbers offer a harsh reality check | Opinion

Since Donald Trump carried Florida in 2016 and then, again, by a larger margin in 2020, the Democratic Party has been supposedly staging a comeback in the Sunshine State.

So far, Democrats have little to show for it. The numbers have been going in the opposite direction: The Republican Party is becoming more popular among Floridians — if voter registration tallies are an indication.

This week, registered Republicans outpaced Democrats by 892,000 voters, up from an edge of 851,000 at the end of February. The GOP’s party chair told Politico he expects to have a one million-plus advantage by the November elections.

There is a caveat to these numbers, Democratic Party spokeswoman Eden Giagnorio told the Herald Editorial Board. Voter registration numbers don’t take into account “inactive” voters who are still eligible to cast ballots, or independent voters.

Thanks to Florida’s new election laws, thousands of voters have been deemed inactive with Democrats being “disproportionately impacted,” she said. When you factor them in, the Republican advantage is closer to 509,000 voters based on 2023 data, according to Giagnorio.

“Republicans are lying about their advantage... they are not telling the whole story,” she said.

Regardless, the numbers don’t look good for Democrats. Until just three years ago, they led the state in voter registrations. Not only did the GOP catch up with them, it surpassed them by stunning margins.

That’s why there’s a “we’ll believe it when we see it” feel to the Florida Democratic Party’s “Take Back Florida Coordinated Campaign” launching this weekend.

When Republicans won Miami-Dade County for the first time in two decades in 2022, that was not just a reflection of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ popularity — he won reelection by nearly 20 points — but also the long game the GOP has played nurturing support among Hispanic voters, and not just Cuban-Americans who have always leaned conservative.

A constant complaint from Democrats is how the party failed to engage those voters on a regular basis. It’s what Miami-based Democratic pollster Fernand Amandi described as “demolition by neglect.”

“I have seen a virtual abandonment of the field in South Florida,” Amandi told the Herald Editorial Board.

Meanwhile, the Republican Party has treated Florida as its “base state,” Amandi said, attracting conservative voters from other parts of the country. Florida has become a laboratory for GOP policies, from DeSantis’ war on “woke” to his administration flying migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard.

Hoping that voters would shun the GOP’s extreme laws — such as the one known as “Don’t say gay” or the six-week abortion ban that goes into effect on May 1 — has not paid off so far. More than calling out Republicans’ excesses and Trump’s anti-democratic tendencies, Florida Democrats must show voters their vision for the state.

To be fair, since 2022, there have been some important Democratic victories under new party chair and former Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried. Democrats flipped a House seat in a January special election in Central Florida and the mayor’s office in Jacksonville, the state’s largest city, last year.

In the 2024 elections, Amendment 4 to protect abortion rights — along with another ballot measure to legalize recreational marijuana — might be Democrats’ best shot at boosting voter turnout and attracting much-needed money from wealthy donors. But that’s not a given. Voters upheld abortion rights in every state where the issue was on the ballot, but several Democrats on those same ballots lost, a Politico analysis found.

It all goes back to investing in the state long before ballots are cast. There are signs that the Democratic Party is taking that seriously. This weekend, they will kick off their “Take Back Florida ” initiative with eight events across the state, including in Miami-Dade, to register Democrats and re-enroll them to vote by mail.

With seven months before Election Day, will that be enough? Only if Democrats don’t live up to their reputation of getting in their own way in Florida.

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