Key mayoral race too close to call - and could Thursday be a 'red letter day' for PM?
Our deputy political editor Sam Coates is now joining Sophy Ridge, and he comes prepared with some new polling on the Tees Valley mayoral election.
Ben Houchen has a seven-point lead on 51% of the projected vote, he says, with Labour's candidate trailing behind with an estimated 44% and the Liberal Democrats with 5%.
"It's not a massive lead," Sam stresses. "It's down from 73% when this seat was last fought, he's dropped to 51%, but a clear lead over Chris McEwan the Labour candidate and the Lib Dems far behind there."
He adds that he was "really ahead" in the over-65s category.
Turning to the West Midlands, a YouGov poll has put Conservative candidate Andy Street two points ahead of Labour.
"YouGov say these figures are essentially too close to call… actually you can see the Lib Dems, Reform, Green and the independent George Galloway-backed candidate totalling much more than the 2%.
"If you squeeze these, then that might just turn the outcome."
Sam says that Thursday - the day of the local elections - could well be a "red letter day" for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
This would be the case "if he loses half of his local councillors" and mayoral elections.
"But this polling suggests that Rishi Sunak is in with a chance of holding on" in Tees Valley and the West Midlands.
If he does that, Sam says, "could it be Labour who have been ramping up expectations, then end up having to do some explaining?"
As a reminder, here are the candidates for the Tees Valley mayoral election:
- Ben Houchen, Conservatives;
- Chris McEwan, Labour;
- Simon Thorley, Lib Dems.
And for the West Midlands:
- Siobhan Harper-Nunes, Greens;
- Richard Parker, Labour;
- Andy Street, Conservatives;
- Sunny Virk, Lib Dems;
- Elaine Ruth Williams, Reform;
- Akhmed Yakoob, independent.
That wraps up tonight's Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge, but we'll have all the latest from Westminster and beyond throughout the night.