HONOLULU (KHON2) — The weather models last week had meteorologists in the Pacific doubting that they were correct, some saying “That’s not possible.” But the models started agreeing and being consistent over the Easter weekend that we will have a very unusually strong high pressure center drifting east well north of Hawaii.
1025mb to 1030mb is generally the average strength of a Pacific high. This one will strengthen to 1050mb Tuesday night into Wednesday.
There is also a chance for rain, especially for Kauai (and probably for Oahu), mostly on the windward side of these islands. If we get enough rain to saturate the ground, especially the roots around trees, followed by significantly stronger winds Tuesday to the end of the week, then we may have downed trees and possibly downed power lines.
A cold front will be between Hawaii and the strong high to the north today into tomorrow, blocking some of the strong winds. The strong winds will further be blocked somewhat into Wednesday by a cut-off low that will develop just northwest of Hawaii.
This cut-off low may also be the trigger for rain on Kauai and possibly Oahu. This is probably the first time I have ever said that a cut-off low would be helping us. Although it may be blocking us from getting strong winds, which could have been 40-50 mph sustained with gust up to 65 mph, it may cause us a few problems if it brings enough rain to Kauai and Oahu.
Potential Weather Problems
I mentioned the potential problems in the section above, but they are worth mentioning again. The front and subsequent cut-off low may bring enough rain to Kauai and maybe Oahu to saturate the soil. This may loosen the soil around the roots of trees.
With much stronger winds moving in Tuesday night through the rest of the week, and possibly through the upcoming weekend. I am expecting these winds to be 20-35mph sustained with gusts up to 45-50mph.
This typically is not a good combination for the state. Hawaii + enough rain + strong winds = downed trees. It will be a situation if we don’t get the rain Tuesday and Wednesday.
If we don’t get the rain, we are still getting high winds Tuesday night through the weekend. That would mean downed tree branches, debris on roads, yards, etc.
With wind gusts possibly up to 45 to 50mph there is still a chance for some downed trees, though less likely than if we get the rain.
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