2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecasted to be very active by researchers

SYRACUSE, N.Y. - The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season doesn't officially begin until June 1st, a couple of months from now. However, hurricane researchers from Colorado State University put out an early forecast for this season.

CSU is calling for a very active hurricane season, way above normal. Forecasting 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. In a normal season, the Atlantic Ocean has about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The record most active season we've ever had was in 2005 with 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 major hurricanes. The forecast for this year is not far off from the record!

Why are they forecasting such an active hurricane season this year? This is because of two major reasons. First, the record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic for the past 12 months. Notice, in the Atlantic Ocean closer to the equator temperatures are in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

The second reason they are forecasting such an active hurricane season this year is because of a transition from El Nino to La Nina during the heart of the hurricane season. La Nina means strong trade winds at the equator leading to more shear in the central Pacific Ocean, shredding storms apart, but lighter wind and less shear in the mid-Atlantic Ocean.

When is the heart of the hurricane season? Well, the official hurricane season begins June 1st through November 30th, but the most active time period is mid-August through Mid-October. The peak of the season is around September 10th. However, we have seen storms as early as this month!

We will continue to monitor the tropics and let you know when something develops, most likely closer to the official start of the season.