Don’t Look Now, But The Detroit Tigers Just Might Be Contenders

Yes, it’s early. And yes, it is the American League Central. But the long dormant Detroit Tigers appear to finally be rising from a seasons-long slumber to once again join the ranks of the contenders.

MLB’s two Central Divisions are actually among my favorites to watch on an annual basis. There are no cash-flush monoliths like the Yankees or Dodgers in these divisions. Heck, there aren’t many upper middle-class outfits here. The Cubs and Cardinals over in the NL Central are the closest thing there is to “haves” in the flyover divisions.

Now it wasn’t all that along ago that the Tigers were the class of the AL Central, though the clubs led by Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, David Price, Magglio Ordonez, Max Scherzer, Victor Martinez and others never did quite win World Series rings. They last reached the postseason in 2014, began a steady descent that bottomed out at a grisly 47-114 in 2019, and only graduated to the realm of simple decency last season, when my batted ball-based team true-talent rankings saw them as an 80-82 club, two games better than their actual record.

The Tigers play their home games at Comerica Park, one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the game. A below average offense - like the one they’ve run out there for several years now - can be made to look absolutely abysmal by their home field. On the other hand, a mediocre pitching staff can be made to look good by Comerica. They are basically in the exact opposite predicament of the Rockies in Coors Field. They can’t be lulled into the illusion that they have a good run prevention outfit by the raw numbers - they have develop and acquire average to above average pitchers that can be made to look great by their home park. Just as importantly, they have to employ above average hitters to simply yield league average range production. For years now, the Rockies have been unable to generate offense at altitude due to their inability to understand this equation.

Let’s tackle the run prevention side of the Tigers’ ledger. Lefty Tarik Skubal anchors their rotation. When he first reached the big leagues, he was an elite bat-misser, but a poor contact manager, in the Robbie Ray mold. Some pitchers of this ilk never figure out the contact management side. Skubal, who had undergone Tommy John surgery during his college years at the University of Seattle, again faced the knife late in the 2022 season, after he had finally begun to show signs of improved contact management that could raise him to the star level.

This time he underwent flexor tendon surgery, avoiding a second Tommy John that could have served as the death knell for his career. And he’s back and better than ever, missing bats and managing contact, looking like a potential Cy Young candidate. He is joined at the top of the Tiger rotation by a pair of new free agent additions, Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda. Both have had health concerns in recent seasons, which made them reasonably affordable. Flaherty signed for one year, $14 million, and has shown his best velocity in years in the early going. Maeda signed for two years, $24 million, and though the early returns on him aren’t quite as promising, this represents a reasonable bet for a club trying to dip its toes into contending waters.

The remainder of the Tiger rotation is populated by homegrown youngsters like Matt Manning, Reese Olson and Casey Mize. Manning and Mize have the upside, prospect pedigree and lengthy injury dossiers, Olson a lower ceiling but perhaps a bit more role flexibility. The club doesn’t need all of them to pan out, but even one big hit out of the three could transform this club.

While the bullpen lacks a lights-out closer, it has length, flexibility and lefty-righty balance. Righty Alex Lange has the typical closer profile and stuff, but his command issues are a concern. Righty Jason Foley backs him up, and though he throws really hard, he is more of a grounder generator. Vet righty Shelby Miller is the wild card - you really shouldn’t use him on back-to-back days, but he can dominate in multiple inning stints every third or fourth day. Lefties Tyler Holton and Andrew Chafin complete the picture. Chafin’s the more typical specialist type, while Holton can be counted on for longer stretches versus lefties and righties.

The Tigers will be made or broken by their offensive performance, however. And it’s a full-blown youth movement around the diamond. The club has entrusted everyday roles to 1B Spencer Torkelson, 2B Colt Keith and OFs Riley Greene and Parker Meadows, all 24 or younger. Greene is an absolute stud who seems primed to establish himself as the face of the franchise. Torkelson might not quite live up to his billing as a first overall draft pick, but a .280, 30 HR middle-of-the-order bat would suffice. Keith signed a six-year, $28.6 million deal before his first MLB at bat, and is batting only .208-.276-.226 through Sunday’s games. He might not be quite be ready for prime time, but plenty of patience will be exercised as he develops. Meadows has been utterly overmatched in the early going (.061-.225-.121) and might benefit from a little more minor league seasoning.

Any discussion of the Tigers’ present must take the offensive struggles of SS Javier Baez into account. He’s in the third year of a six-year, $140 million contract, and is batting a woeful .140-.152-.209 without a single walk in the early going.

A really good team? Nope. A young, upwardly mobile bunch that might be primed to prevent runs at a better than league average clip while its offense begins to get off of the mat? Sure. The White Sox aren’t even a major league team. Next. The Twins appear to be the class of the division on paper but have struggled in the early going. The Guardians and Royals - we’ll discuss the latter tomorrow - are also off to solid starts and could be part of a four-team scrum well into the summer if early trends persist. Of this group, the Tigers just might possess the best combination of today and tomorrow. Motor City fans have been waiting for a reason to get excited, and Skubal, Greene and friends might just give them one.