Read the transcript of our weekly Blues chat.
Matthew DeFranks: Good afternoon. It's a rainy Wednesday in St. Louis as we wind down the regular season. The Blues could be eliminated from postseason contention as early as tonight.
If the Blues lose to the Blackhawks in regulation tonight, the Kings will clinch a spot.
If the Blues lose to Chicago in any fashion, and Vegas beats Edmonton in regulation, the Golden Knights are in.
If the Blues lose to Chicago in regulation, and Vegas beats the Oilers in OT/SO, the Golden Knights are in.
So those are the official scenarios for tonight. Let's get to some questions.
Scubado: What's the word on Craig Berube? What's he doing now and has he said anything about his departure from the Blues? I assume he'll be at the front of the line for a new HC job during the offseason. Which team would be the best fit?
Matthew DeFranks: Craig Berube has been living in Philadelphia, and working on TV with the TNT crew in their Atlanta studio every now and then.
He did a few interviews a few weeks after he was fired about how much he enjoyed coaching in St. Louis, and how he loved the city and wanted to keep coaching elsewhere. I think he understood that the group needed a new voice.
By my count, there are openings in New Jersey, Ottawa, Los Angeles and St. Louis. Could there be new openings in Toronto, Pittsburgh, Buffalo or Columbus?
I would think New Jersey is the most intriguing of that group there. They have a solid young group of players that would have been a lot higher in the standings if it actually got decent goaltending, and if it wasn't missing Dougie Hamilton for so long.
Schlay: I see Thomas growing as a player and in size. He appears to carry more healthy weight. I like how he is using his added bulk this year. Is this something being noticed / discussed?
Matthew DeFranks: Robert Thomas is a little bit bigger. I don't know his exact weight, but I'm also not sure it's all muscle mass. The additional weight doesn't seem to bother the way he skates or battles, and it certainly hasn't affected his production or his ability to take on 21 minutes a night.
B. Shannahan: Do you think Lindy Ruff is an option in St Louis?
Matthew DeFranks: I wouldn't think so. His teams have typically played an up-tempo, offensively-tilted game. Not sure we need a Blues team that focuses less on defense.
With guys like Todd McLellan, Gerard Gallant, Jay Woodcroft, or even Dean Evason out there, it would feel like settling if Lindy Ruff was the guy.
B. Shannahan: I like Jay Leach as an option, just dont know if Army is that smart to make him an offer.
Matthew DeFranks: Doug Armstrong's history is to hire coaches with previous NHL experience: Ken Hitchcock, Mike Yeo and Craig Berube all fit that category. Best as I could tell, the only head coach he hired without NHL head coaching experience was Dave Tippett in Dallas.
B. Shannahan: Leach was on the short list of names to replace Bruce Cassidy before the Bruins went with Jim Montgomery. That should give Armstrong something to think about.
Matthew DeFranks: That's a good point, but helps that the Bruins were already familiar with him because of his years in Providence.
B. Shannahan: Fair. Leach is a great communicator and thinker of the game. I like Marc Savard as well
Matthew DeFranks: I don't know too much about Marc Savard, other than gaining some familiarity with him when I covered Dallas. He was coaching Wyatt Johnston in Windsor at the time.
B. Shannahan: He coached the Blues' lethal power play in 2019-20 before seeking a head coaching job with the Spitfires.
Matthew DeFranks: The Blues power play was still No. 6 the next year, and No. 2 the year after that. So it might have had to do with the personnel on it vs. the coaching itself.
B. Shannahan: Well their 24th or 25th this year and I believe worst the year before so 6th kinda sounds pretty good to me ehh?
Matthew DeFranks: Oh yeah, sixth is definitely preferred to this year at 23rd and last year at 22nd. But all I'm saying is it helped to have David Perron, Ryan O'Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko performing well.
B. Shannahan: Absolutely agree!!
Fake Roy Hobbs -: Love you :) LGB!
Matthew DeFranks: For a second there, I thought our boy was back in the chat.
B. Shannahan: I believe Armstrong has back himself into a corner with all the NMC contracts and not making the playoffs 2 years in a row. Do you think Stillman and his group are activly looking for a new GM?
Matthew DeFranks: When Doug Armstrong fired Craig Berube, that was as strong an endorsement you would find from Tom Stillman. You don't let the GM fire the Cup-winning coach, and you don't let that same GM make the next coaching hire without wanting that GM to lead the hockey operations department.
Armstrong has made this mess, and I think he knows that. He's seen how hard it's been the last two years to untangle himself from this web of contracts and clauses. That much is certain. But in the grand scheme of things, he's done a really good job with the Blues.
Without top picks, without a superstar player, the Blues have been competitive in a Cup-contending way for close to a decade. If (BIG IF) this is the worst of it for the Blues, two 80-something seasons would be bearable. Now, if there's no light at the end of the tunnel and the Blues remain stuck in the middle for a while, there's a lot more concern to be had.
B. Shannahan: I mean yeah kinda. Armstrong puts a team out there to compete but I don't believe he's trying to put together a team to win.
Matthew DeFranks: The team that could, in theory, win would be the one that is able to capitalize on stars (or could-be stars) like Thomas and maybe Kyrou putting together big seasons, plus young players on entry-level contracts that contribute, and goaltending. The Blues are probably still a couple years away from that.
At best, really.
DU: Good job this year, Matthew. Thanks for covering our boys and thanks for doing these chats. I wish they could have prolonged their season a bit but they just don't have all the parts they need at this point. We'll get 'em next year.
Matthew DeFranks: Thank you, and thanks for dropping in the chats. I'm conflicted about this year's team. They ended up right around (maybe even higher) than I thought they would: in the mid to high-80s and on the wrong side of the playoff bubble. So they overachieved relative to my own expectations.
I just didn't think they'd get to this point they way they did. Their 5v5 numbers are close to the bottom of the league, and this is not a bottom-five roster, or it shouldn't be a bottom-five roster. When they succeeded, they did so mostly because of goaltending and timely special teams. Those can be fickle beasts, so the Blues' 5v5 play will have to improve a ton next year to make more progress.
DU: I was proud of them for hanging in there. Not trading Buch at the deadline was questionable but it goes to show that the front office believed they had a chance also. I'd take a front office believing in their team over the opposite any day. I wonder how far ahead Army thinks on those trade deadline deals. Win quicker if we can keep Buch, maybe....but it probably sets us up better in two or three years if we could've got a near ready prospect for him. To the point earlier, does Army believe he has two or three more years in the organization? Is he making the best decisions for the long term health of the team? It was tough to believe they could go all the way this year, even if they got in. Hard to know. Hard to know. I think Army has done a decent enough job, in general.
Matthew DeFranks: Doug Armstrong is under contract through the 2025-26 season, so he has two more after this season under contract. As we know, that doesn't mean that he sticks around for the entirety, but it's worth noting.
As for Buchnevich, the Blues still have two more chances to trade him: during the offseason this summer and at the trade deadline next season as a rental. We'll see what kind of talks they have this summer in regards to a potential extension.
But I'm not sure hanging on to Buchnevich had to do with their place in the standings vs. not receiving what they wanted on the trade market. The Blues held all the leverage, and if teams didn't meet the price, might as well hold on to him.
Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Happy Humpty Dumpty day Matt, can Army put a cup contending team back together again? As you pointed out in your most recent article the club has to wait maybe two years before our up and coming young guns are ready to produce. I know Stillman bleeds blue but with another losing season after this one he will be seeing red. Can Army survive? Oh, and its sunny and 8o degrees at the mouse house.
Matthew DeFranks: If you're drawing up a plan to get the Blues back to Cup contention, it revolves around Robert Thomas becoming a superstar, Dalibor Dvorsky being a high-end 2C, filling in veteran depth in the top-nine, hoping some of the prospects pan out (Bolduc, Dean, Snuggerud, Stenberg, Lindstein), using new cap space to find a No. 1 defenseman and hanging on to elite goaltending.
You can see a path towards that. But you can also see how easily the Blues could get derailed from that.
If there's two things that Armstrong has done consistently, it's develop talent without top draft picks, and win trades (mostly). Obviously, his contracts haven't aged well recently, but history suggests that Armstrong will try to trade and develop his way out of this.
Kerry: There’s been a lot of “debating” about rookie of the year between CHI and MN fans. I know Bedard is a phenom, but what Faber has done this season is more impressive to me. I really don’t look forward to facing either of them for the next decade plus. What’s your take on the Calder race?
Matthew DeFranks: Currently, I lean Connor Bedard over Brock Faber right now. What Bedard is doing on a team that bad is frankly absurd. I know people rag on him for his defensive numbers, but Blackhawks goalies have put up a .8885 save percentage at 5v5 with him on the ice. Everyone's goal-differential would look horrible with that.
I also like looking at relative on-ice numbers to compare players across teams. Essentially, is this team better or worse with this player on the ice? It's not perfect because it doesn't factor in quality of competition or teammates, but I was surprised to see Minnesota's possession numbers dip with Faber on the ice.
I imagine I'll be voting for the awards (Hart, Norris, Calder, Selke, Lady Byng and Masterton) again this season, and I guess I'll spend the next week figuring all that out.
Matt L: I don’t think Thomas needs to be a superstar to get the Blues back in cup contention. The 19 Blues did not have a superstar. (I know O’Reilly won the Selke that year, but I still wouldn’t put him in the superstar category, or maybe that’s just semantics.)
Matthew DeFranks: Semantics or not, I think we can look at the recent Cup champions and say that the Blues were the anomaly in terms of construction. Vegas, Colorado, Tampa, Tampa, Washington, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Chicago all had star power that the Blues just didn't have in 2019. They were just a much deeper team than so many others.
I guess the question is if Robert Thomas is Jack Eichel, can the Blues build a roster good enough around him like Vegas did?
pugger: hey Matt!
Any draft thoughts--- Blues will be what, 18, 19, 20 range? Any ideas on who may be available around that part of the draft...
Matthew DeFranks: They'll probably be right at No. 16, honestly. I haven't even started to look at the draft yet, so I've got no good answers.
Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Does DB become the permanent coach for 2024-25 based on his ability to "coach up" young talent? He keeps playing Kyrou on the #1 PP unit and they don't ever do much, I would start the #2 unit on the PP. Also, good he is now playing "the Duke" Bolduc on the PP but in my humble opinion he should have done that way before he did. The kid has special talent and most importantly he wants to shoot. What say you?
Matthew DeFranks: I don't see Drew Bannister as the coach next year based on the fact that the Blues' results can largely be attributed to goaltending and special teams. The coaches deserve credit for the power play, but that helped hide pretty big deficiencies at 5v5.
The other side is that Doug Armstrong asked for a coach that would bring competitiveness and accountability. I think Bannister has done that. The Blues aren't out of games immediately anymore, and they'll fight back. He's also scratched or benched Buchnevich, Thomas, Kyrou, Krug, Hayes, Kapanen, Sundqvist.
Matt L: Do you think the Blues would consider floating Snuggerud (perhaps with Buchnevich) if it would land them the blue chip D prospect they so clearly need? Maybe I am just being paranoid about Snuggerud but is it so crazy to wonder if he intends to play out his college hockey and become a FA? The Blues were clearly ready to roll out the Blue carpet straight to the NHL this year for him and he turned it down. I would figure he can make good NIL money at a program like Minnesota and then he can be a FA and choose where he wants to go.
Matthew DeFranks: It's something the Blues have to consider, but not because of signability fears. I do think Snuggerud turns pro after next season and I don't think the Blues are worried about him playing four years and becoming a UFA. The reason to trade him is because, as you know, they're so forward-heavy in the prospect pool.
It's something Doug Armstrong has mentioned multiple times: The Blues draft the best available player, regardless of position and then deal from a position of strength with other teams who maybe have more defensemen.
When you see players like Brock Faber or Jamie Drysdale get moved as prospects(ish), you see it's possible. I wonder if Armstrong tries to ring up old buddy Steve Yzerman for one of their young D.
pugger: Do you think Dvorsky may be in the mix for #2 center next year, or is that too much to ask...???
Oh, I just venmo'd you $1000 to answer any of my questions.. ha!!
NO worries, thanks Matt.!
Matthew DeFranks: I think Dalibor Dvorsky will get a loooooong look at training camp in the fall. He's shown that he's too good for the competition in the OHL. I believe he can be assigned to the AHL next year even though he's not 20 since he was drafted out of Europe (though I'll have to double-check). But Dvorsky going back to the OHL doesn't do much for his development.
They got him the ice time he needed this season. They can handle his transition from here, whether that's in the AHL or the NHL. It's also very rare for a rookie (at 19 years old next season) to come in and not only play top-six minutes, but also be productive in those minutes. So temper expectations. But I think the Blues will see a lot of him this summer and into the fall.
Scott Stewart: To me, it looks like you need 3 things to be competitive in the playoffs. Good to great goaltender, Blues have one. #1 defenseman - dont have. 2-3 guys that can make their own shot and another 2-3 guys that can shoot well enough when put into the right position - seems short of guys that can make their own shot. I can't see how we get from here to there drafting consistently in the teens. It's time to get out of the mushy middle.
Matthew DeFranks: I get that, but getting out of the mushy middle and committing to a tank/rebuild is will take half a decade on the optimistic side of things, and will look Buffalo-ish on the bad side of things. With Robert Thomas signed to what looks to be a team-friendly contract for his prime years, the Blues won't be going down that road.
We've emptied the queue now. On a game day, we'll call it there. Thanks for stopping by.
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