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Moderate tropical storm Filipo expected to affect extreme northeast South Africa

The SAWS has predicted a moderate to high risk of heavy rainfall occurring over the Lowveld of Mpumalanga on Wednesday March 13.

March 11, 2024
Lowvelder 2 minutes read
The latest projected track for Filipo as issued by RSMC La Reunion. Following landfall this evening, Filipo will rapidly follow a curved track, passing inland through southern Mozambique on Tuesday March 12 to exit near Xai-Xai early in the morning of Wednesday March 13. Image: SAWS/RSMC La Reunion (MeteoFrance)

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has predicted a moderate to high risk of heavy rainfall over the Lowveld in Mpumalanga on Wednesday March 13, which could include localised flooding. This is due to the moderate tropical storm Filipo.

SAWS said in a statement that localised flooding may occur over the southern Lowveld, including the Kruger National Park (KNP). It said major rivers of the central and southern half of the KNP, such as but not limited to the Olifants, Letaba, Sabie and Sand rivers, as well as the Crocodile River in the extreme south of the KNP are likely to be flowing very strongly, possibly in flood, from midweek onwards.

On Sunday March 10, SAWS had released a statement saying the weak, embryonic tropical low-pressure system located between Madagascar and mainland southern Africa (the Mozambican Channel) experienced significant intensification overnight, attaining a moderate tropical storm status.

The storm is associated with average winds of 63 to 89km/h and has consequently been elevated to a moderate tropical storm Filipo.

ALSO READ: SAWS predicts spell of windy and rainy weather for Mpumalanga due to weak tropical low-pressure system

“The storm is expected to affect mostly the southern parts of Mozambique, but some of its effects will also be felt over the extreme northeastern parts of South Africa,” said SAWS in Monday’s statement.

@lowvelder

Here is the latest update on the moderate tropical storm Filipo, currently nearing the Mozambican coast, travelling west. #tropicalstorm #filipo #saws #mozambique🇲🇿 #heavyrain #rainalert #rainalerts

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It said a tropical low-pressure system can be defined as a less dense air mass that is usually wetter and warmer than the surrounding air. Such a system can cause the formation of clouds and storms.

As of 08:00 today, Filipo was positioned just seawards off the southern Mozambican coastline, moving westwards at a modest rate of 11km/h. SAWS said as the system moves closer to the coastline south of Beira (Mozambique), the potentially hazardous phenomenon of storm surges will become more likely.

Recent modelling estimates by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre in La Reunion suggest that storm surge is likely to elevate local sea levels by as much as half a metre, especially along the coastline extending from Beira, southwards to Vilankulos.

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Moreover, it is estimated that Filipo will make landfall this evening on the Mozambican coast at or near Inhassoro, north of Vilankulos, having further intensified to a severe tropical storm associated with average winds between 89 to 118km/h. Therefore, for much of the southern Mozambican coastline, a high risk exists for weather-related damage from a combination of torrential rain, strong, damaging winds as well as a storm surge near the coastline.

SAWS said that for South Africa in particular, it is expected that the bulk of the heavy rain for Monday will remain constrained to southern Mozambique, but that there is a moderate to high risk of heavy rainfall occurring over the lowveld regions of Limpopo on Tuesday and over the Lowveld of Mpumalanga on Wednesday.

SAWS predicts the heavy rain will cease abruptly by Thursday, as the system leaves southern Africa and moves off into the southern Indian Ocean, east of South Africa.

SAWS said it will continue to monitor any further developments relating to this weather system and will issue subsequent updates as required. It urged the public to regularly follow weather forecasts on television and radio.

Updated information in this regard will regularly be available at www.weathersa.co.za, as well as via the SAWS X account. 

March 11, 2024
Lowvelder 2 minutes read
 
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