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Think back to the quarterback landscape two years ago around this time.
Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow had just dueled for the Lombardi Trophy. Russell Wilson was on his way to save the Denver Broncos after a blockbuster trade by the Seattle Seahawks. Aaron Rodgers, unknowingly at the time, was preparing for his final season with the Green Bay Packers. Tom Brady retired … and unretired.
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Trey Lance seemed primed to lead the San Francisco 49ers for the foreseeable future, while Brock Purdy visited with teams hoping simply to be drafted. Davis Mills geared up for Year 2 as the starter for the Houston Texans, who’d just traded Deshaun Watson to the Cleveland Browns, who at the time still employed Baker Mayfield.
The constant amid the chaos in the quarterback world the past two seasons? Two more rings for Patrick Mahomes.
So, where are we now?
I’ve examined the state of each quarterback room in the league using a few of my favorite metrics (with the help of TruMedia, Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions):
- Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback
- Passer rating
- Total QB EPA
- On-target percentage
- Catchable-pass percentage
Rankings are in parentheses in the EPA charts, and in the box next to the rates in the on-target and catchable-pass percentage charts. Those rankings are for individual seasons the past two years. Qualified passers attempted a minimum of 100 passes in each season.
(Note: QB depth charts as of April 15)
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AFC East
Buffalo Bills
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.19 (3) | 96.6 (19) | 119.0 (3) | |
2023 | 0.13 (12) | 92.2 (32) | 103.9 (5) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ont% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 73.3 | 45 | 84.4 | 49 | |
2023 | 77.1 | 21 | 88.0 | 16 |
Allen’s EPA numbers consistently ranked among the top of the league each of the past two seasons. Meanwhile, his on-target and catchable-pass percentages improved from 2022 to 2023. The major questions surround whom Allen will throw to this season now that Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are playing elsewhere.
Miami Dolphins
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.18 (5) | 105.5 (4) | 69.4 (9) | |
2023 | 0.15 (8) | 101.1 (10) | 60.7 (12) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 73.1 | 48 | 87.5 | 22 | |
2023 | 73.8 | 41 | 86.6 | 28 |
A lot of green throughout the EPA graphic for Tagovailoa. You just wish his monster EPA games had occurred against the league’s top competition. Instead, the Dolphins typically feast on inferior teams and not as much when facing playoff-caliber opponents. And there’s the little lingering issue that Tagovailoa is entering the final year of his rookie deal.
New England Patriots
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.07 (26) | 88.9 (45) | 32.7 (23) |
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | -0.33 (93) | 68.8 (91) | -81.2 (92) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 72.7 | 55 | 85.5 | 37 |
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 66.8 | 88 | 82.1 | 71 |
We all know the Patriots will select a quarterback at No. 3 in the NFL Draft later this month. But Brissett certainly isn’t the worst fallback option if Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye (or J.J. McCarthy?) doesn’t open the season as the starter. The veteran QB played better than Watson when filling in as the Cleveland starter during the 2022 season. I get why the Commanders went with Sam Howell, but Brissett would’ve been the steadier option last season.
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New York Jets
- Aaron Rodgers
- Tyrod Taylor
- Zach Wilson
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | -0.03 (50) | 91.1 (35) | -31.9 (73) |
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 0.00 (42) | 89.1 (43) | 0.9 (44) |
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | -0.14 (77) | 72.8 (87) | -41.4 (80) | |
2023 | -0.23 (88) | 77.2 (77) | -117.1 (94) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 74.3 | 36 | 85.1 | 41 |
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 73.0 | 50 | 87.1 | 25 |
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 63.2 | 95 | 74.1 | 96 | |
2023 | 70.0 | 78 | 83.8 | 59 |
This seems like a prime time to strike for the Jets’ offense. If healthy, wideout Mike Williams and left tackle Tyron Smith could be monster acquisitions to make life better for Rodgers as he’s coming off an Achilles injury. You can’t blame the Jets for investing in Taylor, either. He’s by far a better backup option than Wilson in case of another Rodgers disaster.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | -0.01 (43) | 91.1 (36) | 25.1 (27) | |
2023 | 0.07 (25) | 102.7 (8) | 35.6 (21) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 69.0 | 83 | 80.2 | 85 | |
2023 | 73.1 | 49 | 84.8 | 45 |
The charts spell out the improvements for Jackson from 2022 to 2023, which led to a second MVP award. In my weekly QB breakdowns, I referenced the uptick in Jackson’s traditional completion percentages as the season progressed. There’s no reason why that can’t continue. Adding Derrick Henry to the mix should take some heat off Jackson, possibly making the passer more dangerous.
Cincinnati Bengals
- Joe Burrow
- Jake Browning
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.10 (18) | 100.8 (13) | 68.4 (10) | |
2023 | -0.03 (48) | 91.0 (37) | -13.5 (54) |
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 0.09 (19) | 98.4 (15) | 25.6 (26) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 79.4 | 5 | 87.2 | 24 | |
2023 | 77.5 | 17 | 88.6 | 7 |
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 77.4 | 20 | 91.7 | 1 |
Burrow rebounded from a horrendous start to last season, brought on by a calf injury in training camp, and looked like the old Burrow … until suffering a wrist injury. No one anticipated Browning playing as well as he did in relief. The Bengals’ backup passed with even better accuracy than Burrow, albeit in a small sample size. That’s hard to do given Burrow’s precision.
Cleveland Browns
- Deshaun Watson
- Jameis Winston
- Tyler Huntley
- Dorian Thompson-Robinson
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | -0.14 (78) | 79.1 (70) | -29.0 (69) | |
2023 | -0.16 (82) | 84.3 (59) | -32.0 (74) |
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | -0.07 (63) | 79.5 (68) | -11.4 (50) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 72.5 | 56 | 83.2 | 67 | |
2023 | 67.1 | 87 | 81.0 | 78 |
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 71.3 | 73 | 80.6 | 81 |
When will Watson become worth the investment the Browns made in him? You might’ve argued “never,” even before Watson touched the field in Cleveland, but his output lends more credence to the debate. His on-target and catchable-pass percentages dropped from 2022 to 2023. Very no bueno.
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Russell Wilson
- Justin Fields
- Kyle Allen
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | -0.08 (64) | 84.4 (58) | -36.9 (77) | |
2023 | -0.05 (56) | 98.0 (16) | -16.7 (56) |
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | -0.01 (46) | 85.2 (55) | 2.4 (41) | |
2023 | -0.05 (55) | 86.3 (52) | -21.5 (64) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 71.7 | 69 | 83.4 | 63 | |
2023 | 77.1 | 22 | 88.2 | 12 |
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 66.1 | 89 | 79.2 | 91 | |
2023 | 71.8 | 68 | 84.0 | 57 |
This will be one of the most fascinating quarterback battles we’ll have witnessed in recent memory. Wilson watched his numbers in all the above metrics improve from 2022 to 2023, but his 98.0 passer rating is definitely inflated given his EPA rates don’t match that number.
As for Fields, it’s a plus to see that his on-target and catchable-pass percentage numbers elevated from 2022 to 2023. Still, those numbers aren’t what you’d prefer considering they’re on the wrong side of the league’s midpoint.
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AFC South
Houston Texans
- C.J. Stroud
- Davis Mills
- Case Keenum
- Tim Boyle
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 0.11 (15) | 100.8 (12) | 59.9 (14) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 71.8 | 67 | 83.3 | 64 |
I started this study before the Texans traded for Diggs — Stroud’s EPA numbers were already exceptional during his stud rookie season without a helping hand from the All-Pro wide receiver. You wouldn’t imagine much of a drop off from Stroud after adding Diggs to the fold, right? And imagine if Stroud can improve his accuracy even a smidge …
Indianapolis Colts
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | -0.15 (80) | 75.2 (84) | -30.9 (70) | |
2023 | -0.07 (62) | 90.2 (39) | -13.3 (53) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 65.7 | 90 | 80.3 | 84 | |
2023 | 72.0 | 64 | 82.0 | 72 |
With Richardson having only 98 dropbacks in his rookie season, it’s still an unknown as to how well he will perform. His rates in a limited sample size should provide hope for the Colts: 0.06 EPA per dropback, 87.3 passer rating, 1.9 total EPA. That said, his on-target percentage stood at just 63.6 percent, making the accuracy knock on him from college still a question mark in the NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.12 (14) | 95.2 (22) | 63.1 (11) | |
2023 | -0.03 (52) | 88.5 (46) | -31.1 (71) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 78.2 | 10 | 86.0 | 31 | |
2023 | 73.8 | 40 | 83.8 | 58 |
It has to be alarming to find all of Lawrence’s metrics down from 2022 to 2023, in every category within the study. This started before the late-season injuries for the Jaguars quarterback, though. Will that change without Calvin Ridley — and with Gabe Davis — now in Jacksonville? It also seems like bizarro world with Jones as Lawrence’s backup, given the 2021 NFL Draft ties.
Tennessee Titans
- Will Levis
- Mason Rudolph
- Malik Willis
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | -0.03 (49) | 84.2 (60) | -21.9 (65) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 68.9 | 84 | 81.3 | 75 |
Levis didn’t play well enough in his rookie season for the Titans not to bring in a safety net. Hence, the addition of Rudolph amid the Steelers’ QB makeover. Rudolph’s numbers ranked among the NFL’s best over the final couple weeks of last season (0.15 EPA per dropback and 118.0 passer rating on 82 dropbacks).
AFC West
Denver Broncos
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.05 (NR) | 89.2 (NR) | 4.9 (NR) | |
2023 | 0.06 (NR) | 87.7 (NR) | 0.7 (NR) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 70.5 | NR | 82.1 | NR | |
2023 | 69.5 | NR | 84.7 | NR |
Maybe Sean Payton wants another shot, with Stidham, at being the quarterback whisperer. Stidham’s rates aren’t terrible through nearly 200 dropbacks in the past two seasons, for two teams.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Patrick Mahomes
- Carson Wentz
- Chris Oladokun
- Ian Book
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.27 (1) | 105.2 (5) | 190.2 (1) | |
2023 | 0.07 (22) | 92.6 (28) | 35.2 (22) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 76.7 | 24 | 85.9 | 34 | |
2023 | 77.8 | 13 | 86.8 | 27 |
My in-season weekly outlooks might have made it seem like I became a Mahomes hater, because I kept harping on how his EPA numbers and passer rating fell to career lows throughout the season. At the same time, I continuously pointed to his lack of weapons as one significant reason why. The fact that his on-target and catchable percentages improved from 2022 to 2023 verifies a metrics dip wasn’t necessarily all on his shoulders.
Las Vegas Raiders
- Aidan O’Connell
- Gardner Minshew
- Anthony Brown
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | -0.04 (53) | 83.9 (62) | -16.8 (57) |
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | -0.01 (44) | 84.6 (57) | -8.2 (48) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 72.1 | 63 | 84.1 | 54 |
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 67.7 | 86 | 87.0 | 26 |
So, whom do you like as the No. 4 quarterback in this year’s draft class? McCarthy? Bo Nix? Michael Penix Jr.? The Raiders do have Minshew to serve as the backup, like he did for Jalen Hurts and Richardson the past couple of years. O’Connell and Howell should live the same existence next season as a 2023 starter-turned-2024 backup (at best, in O’Connell’s case).
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Los Angeles Chargers
- Justin Herbert
- Easton Stick
- Max Duggan
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.04 (33) | 93.2 (26) | 37.1 (20) | |
2023 | 0.07 (23) | 93.2 (25) | 29.4 (25) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 76.6 | 25 | 88.1 | 13 | |
2023 | 76.6 | 26 | 85.9 | 35 |
Bye bye, Keenan Allen. Adios, Mike Williams. Peace out, Austin Ekeler. No one lost more capable pass catchers this offseason than Herbert. The Chargers quarterback produced similar metrics the past two seasons. Good rates? For sure. But you’re expecting the exceptional from the 2020 NFL Draft’s No. 6 pick. How that will be possible without the aforementioned pass catchers seems far-fetched.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
- Dak Prescott
- Cooper Rush
- Trey Lance
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.08 (21) | 91.1 (34) | 43.6 (18) | |
2023 | 0.18 (4) | 105.9 (3) | 117.1 (4) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 77.7 | 14 | 87.9 | 18 | |
2023 | 79 | 7 | 88.4 | 9 |
Prescott’s 2023 numbers were so spectacular that he rightfully landed near or atop the NFL MVP conversation for much of the season. And his performance last season ranked among the best by any QB in the past two years. Yet, the conversation continuously revolves around his future in Dallas. Another egg laid in the playoffs by the Cowboys will do that to you.
New York Giants
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.05 (31) | 92.5 (29) | 41.7 (19) | |
2023 | -0.23 (86) | 70.5 (90) | -56.7 (86) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 79.6 | 4 | 88.7 | 6 | |
2023 | 72.3 | 59 | 89.2 | 4 |
You probably wouldn’t peg Jones as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL the past two seasons. His catchable-pass percentage should lend to success, right? Well, it did in 2022, leading to a Giants playoff berth. That seems so long ago, though, especially when you glance at Jones’ EPA numbers from last year before his knee injury.
Philadelphia Eagles
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.09 (20) | 101.5 (9) | 75.1 (8) | |
2023 | 0.07 (24) | 89.1 (44) | 52.4 (16) |
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | -0.02 (47) | 76.7 (80) | -0.3 (45) | |
2023 | -0.15 (81) | 81.4 (64) | -54.1 (85) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 78.7 | 8 | 89.0 | 5 | |
2023 | 75.5 | 29 | 86.2 | 29 |
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 77.9 | 12 | 84.5 | 48 | |
2023 | 73.7 | 43 | 82.9 | 69 |
The passer rating dip for Hurts stands out most when you examine his two-year rates. His 2023 EPA per dropback and passer rating were basically the same in 2021 (0.07 EPA rate, 87.2 passer rating). Can new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who’s on his third team in three season, revamp this offense? I’m also still trying to wrap my head around Pickett being Hurts’ backup.
Washington Commanders
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.02 (39) | 88.2 (48) | 18.6 (35) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 65.3 | 92 | 79.6 | 90 |
It will be the Daniels or Maye show for the Commanders after trading Howell to Seattle and letting Brissett walk in free agency. Mariota has proven to be ineffective, so there’s no reason not to start whichever QB the team selects at No. 2 later this month.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | -0.10 (71) | 71.4 (89) | -12.0 (51) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 71.6 | 71 | 83.6 | 61 |
Giddy up for Caleb Williams. ‘Nuff said.
Detroit Lions
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.15 (7) | 99.3 (14) | 84.1 (6) | |
2023 | 0.11 (16) | 97.9 (17) | 59.9 (13) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 71.8 | 66 | 84.8 | 46 | |
2023 | 74.4 | 35 | 85.3 | 39 |
It’s as if the light switch came on for Goff at the midpoint of the 2022 season. The illumination has made Goff one of the more potent quarterbacks, almost out of nowhere — and the Lions one of the best teams in the league along with it. Given the state of the offensive personnel, one would think Goff and the offense will produce more of the same in 2024.
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Green Bay Packers
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 0.12 (13) | 96.1 (20) | 75.5 (7) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 73.2 | 46 | 84.9 | 44 |
Love found the aforementioned light switch around the midpoint of the 2023 season. Look directly at his traditional completion percentage: He only carried a 58.7 percent rate during Weeks 1-10; from Weeks 11-18, he improved drastically with a 70.3 percent clip. The Packers’ young core at wide receiver and tight end remains intact. Josh Jacobs isn’t Aaron Jones as a pass-catching running back, though.
Minnesota Vikings
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.18 (6) | 92.6 (27) | 22.5 (30) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 79.1 | 6 | 86.1 | 30 |
This is unintentional PR work for the Vikings. I almost couldn’t believe it myself as it was happening in the 2022 season with Darnold. From Weeks 10 to 18, the then-Panthers starting quarterback ranked third in the league in EPA per dropback rate at 0.18, behind only Goff and Mahomes. I’m sure this played a role in the 49ers bringing him over last offseason, and why the Vikings snagged him after Kirk Cousins’ departure last month.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.03 (35) | 92.5 (31) | 22.3 (31) | |
2023 | 0.06 (28) | 103.8 (6) | 20.3 (34) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 78.5 | 9 | 88.0 | 14 | |
2023 | 75.9 | 28 | 89.5 | 3 |
I find it amusing how I often set the bar at the Cousins level for two other quarterbacks in this division, and now Cousins himself is in the NFC South. It’s been quite a few years since the Falcons employed an accurate quarterback — there’s no doubt Cousins will bring that to the table. The weapons seem in place for Cousins. Will his Achilles be right for him to produce in 2024?
Carolina Panthers
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | -0.21 (85) | 73.7 (86) | -133.5 (95) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 68.6 | 85 | 81.3 | 76 |
Young, the 2023 No. 1 pick, yielded one of the worst rookie seasons in a minute. So the Panthers took the route another NFC South team rode for 15 years with a shorter QB under center by beefing up their interior offensive line (guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt). Plus, new coach Dave Canales helped turn around Geno Smith and Mayfield during previous stops.
New Orleans Saints
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.04 (32) | 86.3 (53) | 24.6 (28) | |
2023 | 0.04 (34) | 97.7 (18) | 14.6 (37) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 73.8 | 38 | 82.9 | 68 | |
2023 | 77.7 | 15 | 88.0 | 15 |
Yes, the Saints are maddeningly mediocre. And yes, Carr’s first season brought frustrations. At least the quarterback’s numbers rebounded from his 2022 and early-2023 woes to give the Saints hope for a consistently better performance in 2024. Concerns at both tackle spots and a lack of weapons at wide receiver might make life tough for Carr, though.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Baker Mayfield
- Kyle Trask
- John Wolford
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | -0.15 (79) | 79.0 (71) | -66.8 (90) | |
2023 | 0.06 (27) | 94.6 (24) | 29.9 (24) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 (CAR) | 69.3 | 81 | 80.4 | 82 | |
2022 (LAR) | 72.7 | 54 | 86.0 | 33 | |
2023 | 73.0 | 52 | 84.0 | 56 |
Not much change for the Bucs offense on the personnel side with Mayfield and veteran wide receiver Mike Evans being secured this offseason. This seems like the most comfortable we’ve ever seen Mayfield since being the 2018 No. 1 pick in Cleveland. How much change will there be, though, with Canales out and Liam Coen in at offensive coordinator?
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
- Kyler Murray
- Desmond Ridder
- Clayton Tune
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.02 (38) | 87.2 (50) | 9.5 (38) | |
2023 | -0.01 (45) | 89.4 (41) | -5.8 (47) |
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | -0.08 (65) | 86.4 (51) | -19.1 (60) | |
2023 | -0.07 (61) | 83.4 (63) | -43.7 (81) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 80.2 | 1 | 89.8 | 2 | |
2023 | 71.9 | 65 | 84.6 | 47 |
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 76.9 | 23 | 85.2 | 40 | |
2023 | 70.2 | 77 | 83.7 | 60 |
Can Murray turn back the clock to his 2021 season? The Cardinals QB yielded a 100.6 passer rating, 0.11 EPA per dropback rate and 48.7 total QB EPA mark that year. Back then, though, Murray played with weapons like DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk and A.J. Green. Even the educated fan probably couldn’t name Arizona’s current wide receivers. A No. 1 wideout should be on his way in two weeks, though, via the NFL Draft.
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Los Angeles Rams
- Matthew Stafford
- Jimmy Garoppolo
- Stetson Bennett
- Dresser Winn
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | -0.06 (57) | 87.4 (49) | -20.6 (61) | |
2023 | 0.11 (17) | 92.5 (30) | 59.3 (15) |
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.14 (11) | 103.0 (7) | 46.1 (17) | |
2023 | -0.06 (58) | 77.7 (76) | -14.8 (55) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 73.1 | 47 | 80.3 | 83 | |
2023 | 69.3 | 82 | 80.7 | 80 |
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 72.3 | 58 | 85.1 | 42 | |
2023 | 69.9 | 79 | 79.8 | 88 |
Stafford’s numbers always fascinate me. He’s one of the least accurate QBs in on-target and catchable-pass percentages. And then in 2023, he was one of the most potent points producers of the last two seasons at the position. This paradox makes the Rams quarterback always fun to watch, as a non-invested spectator like myself. The 2024 squad will need the offense to shine after the retirement of all-world defensive tackle Aaron Donald.
San Francisco 49ers
- Brock Purdy
- Josh Dobbs
- Brandon Allen
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.15 (10) | 107.3 (2) | 21.1 (32) | |
2023 | 0.26 (2) | 113.0 (1) | 132.8 (2) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 72.2 | 60 | 88.3 | 11 | |
2023 | 75.1 | 31 | 85.7 | 36 |
Purdy has played incredibly well the past two seasons (including well enough for the 49ers to be in position to win Super Bowl LVIII). There will be detractors even if/when the quarterback guides San Francisco to a Super Bowl title. Purdy’s individual results are staring you in the face: He’s one of the best QBs in the league. You can believe it or not — but if you don’t, just know you’re wrong.
Seattle Seahawks
- Geno Smith
- Sam Howell
EPA metrics
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 0.03 (37) | 100.9 (11) | 4.2 (40) | |
2023 | 0.06 (29) | 92.1 (33) | 22.7 (29) |
Year | player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | -0.12 (74) | 78.9 (72) | -87.1 (93) |
On-target/catchable percentages
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 78 | 11 | 87.9 | 17 | |
2023 | 75.5 | 30 | 86.0 | 32 |
Year | Player | ONT% | Rank | Ctch% | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 71.1 | 74 | 84.3 | 53 |
Smith’s accuracy percentages fell a little bit, but they were still good among his peers. His passer rating dropped nearly 10 points from 2022 to 2023, but his EPA rates improved last season. All of this was good enough for the Seahawks to go 9-8 in consecutive seasons. How will he react in a new system? Trading for Howell seems like a sneaky smart move for Seattle.
(Top photos of Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and C.J. Stroud: Dustin Satloff, Cooper Neill, Rob Carr / Getty Images)