The Detroit Red Wings (38-32-9) visit the Toronto Maple Leafs (46-24-9) Saturday at Scotiabank Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 1-1; Road team has won both meetings this season, while Under has cashed in each outing
The Red Wings are still very much alive for a wild-card spot, just 1 point back of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Detroit is tied with the Philadelphia Flyers and Washington Capitals with 85 points, although the Flyers have played 1 extra game.
The Maple Leafs were on the short end of a 6-5 loss against the New Jersey Devils on home ice as the Over (6.5) cashed. The Leafs are still 6-2-0 in the past 8 games, and they remain 5 points back of the Florida Panthers for 2nd place in the Atlantic Division, with a game in hand.
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Red Wings at Maple Leafs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Wings +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Maple Leafs -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Wings +1.5 (-160) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Red Wings at Maple Leafs projected goalies
Alex Lyon (20-18-5, 3.03 GAA, .906 SV%, 2 SO) vs. Ilya Samsonov (23-7-7, 3.08 GAA, .891 SV%, 3 SO)
Lyon allowed 6 goals on just 27 shots in a 6-5 OTL last time out in Pittsburgh Thursday. He has managed to win just twice in the past 15 starts dating back to Feb. 27. Lyon allowed 3 goals on 29 shots in a 3-2 loss against the Maple Leafs in the NHL Global Series back on Nov. 17 in Sweden.
Samsonov is confirmed to start. He is looking to atone after allowing 6 goals on just 20 shots in the wild 6-5 loss against the New Jersey Devils last time out Thursday, halting a personal 5-game winning streak.
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Red Wings at Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Prediction
Maple Leafs 4, Red Wings 3
Moneyline
The Maple Leafs (-175) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s too much risk for not enough reward. Thursday’s game should serve as a cautionary tale, as the Leafs were similarly priced against the Devils (-190), blowing the lead and the game.
However, the Red Wings (+145) also cannot be trusted. Detroit is a dismal 2-4-3 in the past 9 games, picking up just 7 out of a possible 18 points.
AVOID.
Puck line/Against the spread
The RED WINGS +1.5 (-160) aren’t priced out of line if you’d like a little bit of insurance.
The Maple Leafs -1.5 (+135) are mathematically still alive for the No. 2 spot in the Atlantic Division, but it’s likely going to end up in the No. 3 spot. The Wings, on the other hand, are fighting for their playoff lives. Expect a great effort from the visitors.
Over/Under
OVER 6 (-120) is worth a look in this Original Six battle with playoff implications.
The Over has a slight 6-5 edge in the past 11 road games for the Red Wings. Be careful, though, as the total has gone low in each of the 2 meetings with the Maple Leafs this season.
For Toronto, the Over has cashed in the past 2 games, while going for 35 goals scored across the past 9 outings, or 3.9 GPG. The Leafs have allowed 20 goals in the past 6 outings, too, or 3.3 GPG. That’s a good recipe for the Over.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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