Marin will see a flock of measures on the November ballot designed to raise taxes to support civic improvements. There’s ample time to analyze the merits of each proposition and determine their cost/reward benefit.
In the meantime, proponents should follow a proven strategy to pass taxes for which a supermajority perceives a need. The basic rule is personal communication.
If local governments follow it early enough in the process, they’ll get feedback to modify their tax plan, making passage more probable.
California tax increases pursued by counties, municipalities, special-purpose districts, schools, regional agencies and the state require a supermajority for passage. Depending on the tax’s purpose, the supermajority is either 55% or 66.6% of voters participating in the election. That’s a tough but fair hurdle.
It’s a political axiom that about 30% of the voting public tends to oppose all tax increases. In the politically “deep blue” North Bay, a likely 45% of voters automatically approve taxes, especially if it’s school related. For proponents, campaigns are about getting the 25% of open-minded voters to cast “yes” ballots to surmount the supermajority threshold.
While not yet finalized, there’s a high likelihood that the following propositions will be on November’s presidential election-year ballot:
• An effort to re-run the Tamalpais Union High School District’s Measure A school facilities bond that was defeated in the March primary.
• A Marin and Sonoma measure to extend the life of the quarter-cent sales tax funding the Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit District, now set to sunset in 2029.
• Novato will likely authorize a measure to increase the sales tax levied within the city’s boundaries from 8.5% to 9.25% to eliminate the town’s $2.6 million annual structural deficit.
• A Bay Area regional bond proposition to generate $20 billion to potentially build 72,000 more affordable homes.
A few years ago, San Rafael officials made a strong and successful effort to fund unmet community needs by enacting a municipal service tax. The mayor and council members, accompanied by senior staff, personally met with neighborhood associations, service clubs and stakeholders including small business owners. The city made intelligent arguments, the tax was perceived as reasonable, and City Council members and staff identified exactly what the funds raised would accomplish.
While often recommended by campaign consultants, relying too heavily on polling to determine a community’s preferred goals and the likelihood of ballot success is a mistake. Polling is a particularly risky tool when it comes to local measures. This isn’t a Marin peculiarity. It’s far more difficult to poll relatively small samples such as Novato’s 52,000 residents than it is to survey 40 million Californians. The basic rule is the larger the sample, the more accurate the survey’s results.
In today’s world, it’s easier to obtain accurate vote surveys for those over 50 years old than it is for their younger cohorts. Landline phones, which older people tend to answer, are perfect for pollsters, but they’re rare now with cell phones dominating. People tend to not answer their cell phone unless they recognize the caller. Online surveys are notoriously unreliable. They are easily gamed by those who have an investment in the outcome.
In-person communication is hard work and time-consuming, but it is the proven means to achieve success with ballot measures and campaigns for public office. People-to-people group conversations have an unbeatable advantage: it’s a two-way process. Elected officials and their staff need to respond to questions they’d rather avoid. Wise officials listen, address concerns and then modify planned ballot measures to meet legitimate objections. That’s called building consensus.
Proponents of the Tam District’s Measure A failed to do just that. Their high school community paid the price on Election Day. Tax-increase proponents might achieve a better result in November by pursuing a collaborative process.
Columnist Dick Spotswood of Mill Valley writes on local issues Sundays and Wednesdays. Email him at spotswood@comcast.net.
