2024 Election
Understanding Independents
Who comprises the nonpartisan electorate?
As the American electorate has become increasingly polarized on the left and the right, one group sits quietly in the middle without choosing sides: independent voters.
In a close presidential election, these voters, who are spread across seven battleground states, could make a crucial difference to who wins the race.
Battleground States
States where elections were won by a margin of 3 percentage points or less.
Map highlighting Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Georgia
To better understand who these voters are, we looked at data from two Reuters/Ipsos polls that collected responses online among U.S. adults in January and March. The level of precision for each figure varies, ranging between about 1 and 4 percentage points.
Illustrator of a red and blue state holding hands
Age, Race and Education
Independent voters skew younger than both Republicans and Democrats. Of the total, 26% are part of Generation Z, born between 1997 and 2012, and the majority were not old enough to vote in the 2020 election. Another 36% are Millennials, or Generation Y, born between 1981 and 1996.
Chart of demographics comparing age, race and ethnicity and education
As a group, the racial and ethnic composition of independents more closely resembles that of Democrats than Republicans.
In terms of education, over 70% of independents don’t have a college degree, according to the polling data.
Illustration of states piling up on a seesaw with purple in the middle, blue and red on the left and right
Working and Living
The age of the Gen Z cohort also means many are just beginning to enter the workforce, though 41% are not working at all compared with 37% of Republicans and 35% of Democrats.
Charts comparing work, household income and living status
When comparing annual incomes, independents comprise the highest percentage of those earning under $50,000: 40%.
Of those who say they rent, 39% of independents rent, more than double the percentage of Republicans. For Democrats, the percentage of renters is 30%.
Illustration of a red, blue and purple state on swings
Top of Mind
Asked what will sway them most when choosing a candidate in November’s election, more Republicans and Democrats are decisive about which issues are most important to them than their independent counterparts.
Charts showing issues that are totally important to how people vote
Seventy-five percent of independents say their personal economic situation is totally important to how they vote, compared with 87% of Democrats and 93% of Republican voters.
What is clear among Independents, however, is that while voting may be a new experience for many of them, it’s possible many didn’t vote in 2020 because they lacked the motivation to cast a ballot.
Charts showing whether people voted and whether they think their vote is important
Do independents think their vote will make a difference this year? Only one in three say yes.
If the presidential candidates want to clinch the independent vote in November, convincing them that every vote counts will be critical.
Notes
Reuters/Ipsos collected polling responses online nationwide via the probability-based KnowledgePanel among 4,094 U.S. adults, including 3,356 registered voters between March 7 and 13. Data for voting and job status comes from a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted between Jan. 3 and 9, 2024, among 4,677 U.S. adults, including 3,468 registered voters. The level of precision for each figure varies, ranging between about 1 and 4 percentage points for both polls.
Source
Reuters/Ipsos
Edited by
Jonathan Oatis