Why Yannick Ngakoue Could Return Regardless of Draft

Think back to the start of the offseason, back before free agency or the combine, and as the combine opened Matt Eberflus addressed reporters about the team's main needs.

"Certainly pass rusher is one of them," Eberflus said. "We got to make sure that we have somebody opposite of Sweat.

"We can never have enough of those guys because they affect the game the most."

Basically, it was the first thing he mentioned when asked about needs, and the sum total of their efforts has been signingJake Martin, a player with his sixth team in seven years. He has 18 career sacks, 15 starts and never made more than four sacks in any season.

So yes, the need for immediate Bears pass rush help as a counter to what Montez Sweat provides off the edge can be a good reason not to draft a wide receiver at No. 9 overall.

Then again, it can be a reason to draft a receiver like Rome Odunze and try to find the pass rush help elsewhere.

In that case, good luck with quality.

The Bears have only $10.7 million in effective cap space, according to Overthecap.com. Any pass rusher they would sign as a free agent now definitely will need to be low budget. However, that's all they're going to find left in a picked-over market, anyway.

If the Bears draft someone ninth with hopes of getting an immediate return for this season to help Sweat, chances are decent of hitting the mark. However, it doesn't guarantee they'll realize a return this season.

If they wait, take a receiver at No. 9 and try in Rounds 3 or 4 for the pass rush help, NFL draft history says they have very little chance of meeting their goal for this year, but they'd have a shot at someone getting better in subsquent years.

Only five rookies last season had more than 4 1/2 sacks and the Bears had that many sacks anyway from veteran defensive end DeMarcus Walker. They might get more from Walker this year with Sweat on the team for a full year.

If they're going to devote the ninth pick of the draft to the edge position, they would hope for 4 1/2 sacks at a bare minimum.

Of the five who did it in 2023, only Will Anderson (7) Byron Young (8) and YaYa Diaby (7 1/2) were edge rushers. The other two were Jalen Carter (6) and Kobie Turner (9).

This type of situation is not uncommon. Rookie pass rushers normally need that first year to develop. The 2022 draft class was a perfect example.

Kayvon Thibodeaux, Travon Walker, Boye Mafe, Jermaine Johnson II, Nik Bonitto, Arnold Ebiketie, Devonte Wyatt, Terrel Bernard and Alex Wright all stepped up in Year 2 to produce 4 1/2 sacks or more after failing to hit that mark as rookies.

It's always possible to get lucky, like the Lions did in Round 5 in 2022 by drafting James Houston. He had eight sacks as a rookie. Then he was injured and had none last year. Houston is really an outlier, though.

So if the Bears must look for an immediate insusion of sack potential from free agency, what's left?

Possibly the main edge left is their own free agent, Yannick Ngakoue. He cost them $10.4 million last year, didn't really produce the way they had hoped and then suffered a season-ending broken ankle with four sacks for 13 games. Unless he had a sack a game over the last four games, he wasn't going to avoid a career low for sacks.

Ngakoue never fit the Bears' needs for an edge because he's not particularly rangy or big, the way Matt Eberflus likes defensive ends to be in his scheme.

At 6-foot-2, 246, Ngakoue is not that 6-4, 265-pounder who is big enough and has interest in stopping the run besides rushing the QB. He is a sack hunter and there is nothing wrong with it with the right kind of team in the right kind of defense.

The Bears are neither of those, but if they did bring Ngakoue back then they would at least be able to avoid the headache of teaching him the defensive scheme all over again at training camp.

Whether they could actually get him interested in taking an amount less than what he made last year when he was 28 years old also is problematic. They don't have the money for something like last year's $10.4 million deal, one-year deal.

Jets edge Carl Lawson is only 28 but coming off a disappointing season a year after he had 2022 Achilles surgery.

Dolphins defensive lineman Emmanuel Ogbah better fits the Bears scheme as an end at 6-4, 275, with 42 1/2 sacks in eight years and 41 tackles for loss. n also played last year for only $4 million.

There is also KC's Michael Danna, who originally was projected at $16.7 million a year by Spotrac.com but most certainly will realize much less after he hasn't been signed for this long. He's a riser with 5.5 and 6.0 sacks the last two seasons but even for a 26-year-old that's a long way from the kind of production well-paid edge rushers can expect.

Depending on the cost, the Bears could very well find bringing back Ngakoue fits best with their plans.

Much like last year, it would be a very late signing as they'd want to see what the draft brings.

Because of the uncertainty of young pass rushers, if the Bears draft Odunze or another receiver at No. 9 it could mean that even if they devote their last two picks to defensive line they might need to revisit a familiar face to get help for Sweat for 2024.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven