Will Kyrie Irving’s game-winner propel Mavericks to strong season finish? It’s not a given

SAN ANTONIO — Perhaps it’s become an annual Mavericks homage to St. Patrick. Or maybe it’s their NBA impersonation of March Madness.

According to basketballreference.com, of the 830 game-winning buzzer-beaters in NBA history, 29 of them have been by Mavericks.

The most recent three Dallas buzzer beaters are by Spencer Dinwiddie at Brooklyn on March 16, 2022, Maxi Kleber at the Lakers on March 17, 2023 and Sunday’s you-gotta-be-kidding, left-handed half-hook by Kyrie Irving to beat reigning NBA champion Denver.

The question now: Will this latest Mavericks’ St. Paddy’s lightning bolt help propel them to a strong regular-season finish and into the playoffs?

Based on history after the last two buzzer-beaters, the Mavericks could go either way. But based on what we’ve seen on the court recently, Irving’s shot could well boost a Dallas team whose arrow already was pointed up.

“We have that mindset and mentality that we still have more work to do,” Irving said. “We’re not satisfied just with going in and being competitive with some of the best teams in the West, or in the league. We want to beat them.”

Dallas (39-29) still has 14 regular-season games, starting with Tuesday night’s game here in San Antonio. It’s a remaining schedule heavy with road games (nine), including a nine-day road trip that was lengthened due to the rescheduling of the postponed Jan. 19 game at Golden State.

A closer look at the schedule, though, shows that none of Dallas’ next 13 games are against teams that currently are in fifth place or better in either conference.

Sacramento, which entered its late Monday game against Memphis sixth in the West, by percentage points ahead of seventh-place Dallas, hosts the Mavericks on March 26 and March 29, amid that long five-game Mavericks trip.

Sunday’s signature win over Denver seemingly bodes well for a Dallas team that has won five of its last six games, but a stumble this week against either the 15-53 Spurs or Thursday’s home game against 29-38 Utah would essentially cancel out the victory over the Nuggets.

In its last seven games against West teams that currently reside between 11th and 15th place, Dallas is only 4-3.

“It was exciting to win; it starts the week off right,” Mavericks coach Jason Kidd said. “But we understand what we have in front of us and we can’t have any letdowns.

“It should be fun at this time of the year, as you see in college. But also in the NBA you can see the physicality of playoff basketball has arrived a little early. We’re up for that challenge.”

After Dinwiddie’s buzzer-beater in Brooklyn two years ago, Dallas lost its next two games, but then won nine of its last 11 to finish 52-30, eventually making a surprise run to the West finals.

Following Kleber’s buzzer-beater in Los Angeles last season, the Mavericks lost their next four games and nine of their last 11 and missed not only the playoffs, but the play-in tournament.

At the moment, this year’s Mavericks look a lot more like they did in ‘22 than in ‘23. After a lull in which Dallas followed a seven-game winning streak with five losses in the next six games, Kidd inserted Daniel Gafford and Derrick Jones Jr. into the starting lineup.

In six games since making the change, the Mavericks’ overall offensive rating is 120.9, their defensive rating is 110.3 and their net rating of 10.6 is third-best in the NBA during that span, behind those of Boston (15.5) and New Orleans (11.3).

In 61 minutes of court time, Dallas’ new starting lineup has an offensive rating of 129.7 and a defensive rating of 95.2 for a net of 34.4. The next-best defensive rating among the nine Mavericks five-player combinations that have played 40 or more minutes: 106.3 by Irving, Jones, Doncic, Maxi Kleber and Josh Green.

“I feel like we match up with everybody well, especially on the defensive end,” Irving said. “We have the ability to switch [positions] one through five and we also have a foundational defense we’ve been going through pretty much the whole season.

“Then we also have the skillsets offensively to dominate teams and really get out in transition, and not so much play half-court and the iso game. If we get a few fast break points -- if we score 15 fast break points — it’s gonna be a hard night for any team.”

The trade deadline additions of Gafford and Washington made an obvious impact in the eyes of two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, whose team dominated Dallas inside on Nov. 3 and Dec. 18, but on Sunday got outrebounded 59-37 and outscored in the paint 62-38.

“They have the personnel to do that,” Jokic said. “They are really tall and long and attack the glass . . . We are not really a big team, especially on the bench. It is what it is.”

Again, the schedule is road-heavy, but the new-look Mavericks are more like a chameleon, with the ability to thrive in multiple styles of play.

The Dallas teams of the past two seasons overly relied on 3-point shooting: In its most recent three wins, Dallas shot 25.7% from 3-point range against Denver, 22.2% against Golden State and 31.7% at Chicago.

Seventh in the West, 14 games left, an outside chance to finish 11-3 and reach 50 wins. After becoming the Mavericks’ latest Mr. Buzzer-Beater, Irving was asked what he views as a realistic ceiling for this team.

“Championship is the ultimate goal,” he said. “So that’s what we’re playing for.”

Twitter: @townbrad

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