When my colleague Sam Vecenie and I talk about the quality of an NBA Draft class, we do it through a very specific lens: stars, starters and rotation players.
Part of the beauty of the draft is that while no one can be certain how a prospect will eventually turn out, their most likely outcome helps both analysts and NBA front offices decide how they want to value their draft picks ahead of time, since the prior offseason and trade deadline are opportunities to upgrade using those selections.
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In many ways, it makes more sense to evaluate NBA free-agent classes the same way. The players involved are significantly more established in the league by that point, so we can classify with more confidence. Things can always change, but there is more to learn about what Matas Buzelis will be as a pro than, for example, Paul George.
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So how does the 2024 free agent class look with that framing? It gets really interesting:
Stars
This is really a matter of perspective. Even with Kawhi Leonard agreeing to an extension with the Clippers, this class still has some serious wattage compared to many in the last few summers.
LeBron James, Paul George and James Harden are all impact players, but the current expectation is that all three will stay in Los Angeles, whether through picking up a player option (for James and George) or simply re-signing as a free agent (Harden). That said, expectations are not certainty, and any one of them opening up to new suitors could upend the entire offseason.
Some will argue the Philadelphia 76ers’ Tyrese Maxey and the Indiana Pacers’ Pascal Siakam merit inclusion in this group, but neither is likely to change teams this summer either. The 76ers have match rights on Maxey, while Siakam joined a new team via trade in January in what could be an example of pre-agency.
If I were a GM, my read would be that it is a credible star group by current standards but a functionally weak one if I had cap space because it will be hard, if not impossible, to pry any of these talented players away from their current teams.
Starters
While the lack of star power is what many use as a demerit against the 2024 draft class, a weak starter group defines 2024 free agency.
There simply are not many players on the market this summer who can step into a starting (and ideally, closing) five right now. Even more importantly, the list of those who can do so now and years down the road is vanishingly small.
The Chicago Bulls’ DeMar DeRozan is likely the biggest remaining name in the class. Though a strong second half put this season in line with his other strong Bulls seasons (DeRozan is averaging nearly 24 points per game), he turns 35 before he would play the first game on his next contract. A consistent scorer capable of shouldering a big workload in a successful offense can help a team next season, but is anyone lined up perfectly for DeRozan to elevate them now while also handling his expected decline? It’s hard to say.
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The next weakness of the starter class ties in with the central dynamic for the stars: free agents who are unlikely to change teams this summer. The Knicks’ OG Anunoby can be a huge difference-maker, but one of his agents is the son of the franchise’s team president, so it appears incredibly likely he will re-sign. The Denver Nuggets’ Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been a starter on two recent championship teams (and potentially a third this season), but his player option is likely a mechanism for securing a big deal to stay a Nugget rather than finding greener pastures elsewhere. (Though there are some fascinating destinations, such as Oklahoma City, if his eye wanders this July.) Former Knick Immanuel Quickley began this season as arguably the most intriguing restricted free agent, but the Toronto Raptors now holding match rights on him means potential suitors know it will take a strong offer to even have a chance of bringing him in — and a sign-and-trade is likely off the board too.
This dynamic really helps the few remaining starter-quality free agents on the board, which may be a major reason why Miles Bridges reportedly prioritized staying with the Charlotte Hornets at the trade deadline. While ownership and front offices around the league must have challenging conversations about whether to pursue Bridges, the Hornets will have full Bird rights this summer to either re-sign him or send him elsewhere via sign-and-trade.
The Brooklyn Nets’ Nic Claxton has not repeated his breakout performance from 2022-23, but a talented defensive center can change a team’s fortunes quickly. There should be some interest beyond Brooklyn, and his age — Claxton turns 25 next week — is a big selling point.
Fellow New York City center Isaiah Hartenstein has actually exceeded Claxton this season. The two of them are less than a year apart in age, so the bidding for them will be fascinating to track.
After that, the pickings in this class get slim quickly. The 76ers’ De’Anthony Melton is my favorite free agent remaining if his back issue is not persistent, while some prefer his teammate Buddy Hield or a few other candidates. But we are firmly in solid or even fringe starter territory after just 10 players. Golden State’s Klay Thompson may have the most fascinating free agency in the entire NBA, while 31-year-old Tobias Harris’ place in the class is complicated, too. Both could experience variance in this offseason, for better or worse.
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Other players certainly could get starter money this offseason (let’s say $18 million to $20 million per season), but it is not exactly the highest-profile list. The New Orleans Pelicans’ Jonas Valančiūnas, the Sacramento Kings’ Malik Monk and the Raptors’ Gary Trent Jr. probably start the conversation, but others like the Washington Wizards’ Tyus Jones and the Miami Heat’s Caleb Martin could join them depending on who wields cap space this summer and how willing their current teams are to use Bird rights to retain them.
Rotation players
The rotation-player bar is much lower than the other tiers above, so there are always significantly more players here. And 2024 offers a somewhat intriguing group depending on what teams are seeking.
As is the case on the starter line, the biggest weakness is the lack of players who can run a high- or even normal-level offense, whether they start or come off the bench. Some of the potential headliners of this group, such as Jones (who some teams likely see as starting-caliber) and the Lakers’ Spencer Dinwiddie, have not had the most inspiring seasons ahead of free agency. Some of the talented point-guard-sized players, such as the Orlando Magic’s Markelle Fultz, the Heat’s Delon Wright and the Utah Jazz’s Kris Dunn, just do not have offense creation as their strength.
To me, the two most intriguing rotation groups are the big men and shooting guards. The Boston Celtics’ Xavier Tillman, the Magic’s Goga Bitadze and the Knicks’ Precious Achiuwa (restricted) all have legit defensive chops. Andre Drummond has been the Bulls’ best center this season, and Jalen Smith is impressing as the Pacers’ backup 5.
While the Memphis Grizzlies’ Luke Kennard and New York’s Alec Burks have their flaws, each is a clear rotation player at absolute minimum. Beyond them, Orlando’s Gary Harris may have the strongest all-around game of the remaining players at the position, while the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Isaac Okoro has shown more offensive flashes this season ahead of his restricted free agency and could generate interest if a GM does not feel the Cavs are ready to match an offer sheet.
This is not my favorite group of forwards, but some of them will really help teams and others will secure big contracts on their potential. Kyle Anderson has been a key part of the Minnesota Timberwolves the last few years. Royce O’Neale has opened things up for the Suns as an all-around forward. The New Orleans’ Pelicans Naji Marshall has the opportunity to hit unrestricted free agency in his mid-20s, which capable players usually do not get because of match rights. At the same point, I expect restricted free agent Patrick Williams’ next contract to dwarf any member of that trio’s, even though he will miss the rest of the season due to injury. It remains to be seen how restricted free agents such as Indiana’s Obi Toppin and currently injured Saddiq Bey will fare after up-and-down seasons with franchises that did not draft them.
If you are scoring at home, this year’s free-agent class likely has a reasonably strong constellation of stars unlikely to change teams, a weak starter crop and a modest rotation group. That goes a long way toward explaining why so few franchises concentrated on accumulating cap space this offseason. But there still will be impact signings and values because the salary cap likely will be on the rise starting in 2025-26 with the new media rights deal.
(Top photo of Klay Thompson and DeMar DeRozan: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)
