Climate change is leading to an earlier spring and more extreme weather, say experts

In our warming world, spring-like conditions are arriving earlier — prolonging seasonal allergies, causing early snowmelt, and extending growing seasons, experts say.

“Climate change is already making an impact and will continue to have an impact throughout the year,” said Thomas Mote, professor of geography and atmospheric science at the University of Georgia. “All seasons are starting to look different. We will certainly have an impact in the spring. 

“We can expect temperatures overall to continue to increase in the spring. We will still have days that will be colder than average. It's just that those periods that are colder than average will be less frequent than they were in the past. The periods that are above average will become increasingly more frequent.”

Meteorological spring starts March 1 and the season has warmed 2 degrees Fahrenheit across the U.S. since 1970.  These long-term warming trends largely reflect the warming caused by carbon pollution that traps excess heat in the atmosphere.

Are your allergies getting worse?It could be due to the affects of climate change on pollen

Spring warmed the most, on average, throughout the United States, such as in the Southwest at 3.3 degrees warmer, and the Southeast and South with each at 2.4 degrees warmer. 

Mote said climate change will also impact the amount of rainfall in the Southeast.

“We've seen a slight increase in precipitation across the South and Southeast, most of it driven by rainfall during the fall,” said Mote. “We're expecting an increase in extreme rainfall events, those that are more than an inch. We think those will continue to increase, which will probably lead to more flooding. 

“There was a study published in the journal Nature this past January, that said more than 90% of the streams in the Southeast will be expected to see an increase in flooding. That will mostly be in the winter and spring due to climate change. We’ll also have more periods that are dry as well. So overall, we're expecting to see an increase in extremes or drought periods and more periods of heavy flooding rainfall.”

Bill Murphey, state climatologist for Georgia Environmental Protection Division, said an El Niño pattern has been active during the winter and now the spring with several strong mid-latitude cyclones affecting the Southeast.

“The good news is that we no longer have drought conditions in the state, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor map,” said Murphey. “We will be transitioning to El Niño–Southern Oscillation over the next few months followed by La Niña as we head into the tropical season.”

Murphey said typically La Niña gives above average tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin due to reduced vertical shear and weaker Atlantic trade winds. 

“The other major factor that bodes well for an active season is above normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea,” he said. “The Tropical Outlook just came out and has forecasted 23 named storms for 2024, with 11 hurricanes. So 2024 is indeed expected to be a highly active hurricane season.”

Murphey said typically spring is an active season in terms of severe weather.

“In addition to climate change, several other factors are at play for this spring and summer,” he said. “Factors such as available Gulf moisture, the strong subtropical and Pacific jet-stream position, as we slowly transition to the ENSO Neutral phase (April-June), followed by La Nina (June-August).”

This reporting content is supported by a partnership with several funders and Journalism Funding Partners.

Erica Van Buren is the climate change reporter for The Augusta Chronicle, part of the USA TODAY Network. Connect with her at EVanBuren@gannett.com or on X: @EricaVanBuren32.