In December, the Frederick County School Board sent three projects to the Board of Supervisors for funding consideration: construction of a fourth high school and expansions at Jordan Springs and Middletown elementary schools.

A presentation on enrollment projections presented Monday to the School Board's Buildings and Grounds Committee showed that student overcrowding in these areas remains an issue.

In September, Jordan Springs and Middletown elementary schools, as well as all three high schools, are expected to remain over capacity, according to enrollment projections, which reflect cohort sizes, live birth data and relevant information from residential subdivision development projects.

For the 2024-25 school year, enrollment at Jordan Springs is projected to increase to 133% capacity. Middletown is looking at a decrease in students due to a larger-than-average fifth grade class moving on to middle school and a smaller-than-average incoming kindergarten class. However, the school is projected to be at 112% capacity.

Enrollment at Sherando High School, the division's most overcrowded school, is projected to increase to 125% capacity, while James Wood High School is expected to grow to 115% capacity. Millbrook High School is looking at a slight decrease of about 10 students, putting it at 116% capacity.

In total, the school division expects to gain almost 300 students between Sept. 15, 2023, and Sept. 15, 2024.

Nine of the division's 19 schools will be over capacity at the start of the 2024-25 school year, with three in the 90% capacity range and six in the 80% capacity range. Stonewall Elementary is the lone school in the 70% capacity range.

"We keep looking at these numbers, and it doesn't change. We're growing. We're getting bigger. We've gotta have somewhere to put students ..." said School Board member and committee chairman Miles Adkins. "... I hope that all this information that is going downtown is really being looked at because something's gotta happen."

School division officials have previously said that it's considered a best practice to begin planning a response to student population growth once an existing school reaches 80 to 85% capacity, since building and expansion can take years to complete.

"Just doing some back-of-the-napkin math," said School Board member and committee member Dianna Klein, "you know, 15% plus 25% plus 16%, that brings everybody down to 100 [percent capacity]. And then you bring everybody down to, I won't even go to 80 [percent capacity], just the 90% capacity, and we already have enough for a 1,200-ish [student enrollment], with room to grow, high school. ... I hope this is widely disseminated throughout the community."