Russia and Ukraine seek to bolster armies but face trouble attracting recruits
Semafor Signals
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Insights from Bloomberg, iStories, and Politico
The News
Russia and Ukraine are both seeking to boost the ranks of their armies amid reports Moscow may be preparing for a new offensive in the spring or summer.
Russia’s defense minister has said Moscow intends to enlist at least 250,000 more troops this year, Bloomberg reported, as it expands its army with a plan to add new divisions and brigades.
In Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signaled the need for more troops and this week signed a law to lower the minimum age for conscription from 27 to 25 as the country struggles to replenish exhausted battalions.
Ukrainian officials have not said how many extra soldiers its military needs, but both the president and commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi have said that the previous estimate for 500,000 extra soldiers was wrong.
Russia has also struggled to attract new recruits, although authorities said Wednesday that the number of people joining its armed forces spiked after the terrorist attack in Moscow on March 22. While an offshoot of the Islamic State terrorist group took responsibility for the attack, that has not stopped Russian authorities from claiming that Ukraine is to blame.
SIGNALS
Russian civilian pay rises make army roles less alluring
With a deficit of workers, Russian businesses from metal refineries to restaurants are seeing wages increase at a double-digit pace, which is making the country’s “once-relatively lucrative military service less appealing” — despite a rise in army wages, Bloomberg reported in January. Compensation for jobs such as machine operators, welders, and drivers increased between 8% and 20% last year, the outlet said, making the salaries more competitive even after Moscow increased soldiers’ monthly pay by 10.5% last year. The high demand for jobs means the current “labor shortage is unlike any seen before,” according to one metals and mining executive, with official data showing that Russia needs 2.3 million more workers to fuel its war-time economy.
Kremlin doesn’t want to risk losing support through mandatory conscription
“Putin is trying to postpone any large-scale mobilization” to ensure he retains the confidence and support of the public, one anonymous NATO official told iStories, an independent Russian-language investigative site. This means the Kremlin will be unable to orchestrate any large-scale offensive in Ukraine, the official predicted, though Russia’s government has an advantage over Kyiv in terms of its stockpile of ammunition and easier access to manpower. The Russian army’s current plan is likely to continue with smaller-scale attacks “aimed at exhausting Ukraine’s armed forces,” the official said. Still, there are warning signs that the Kremlin is setting the stage for a future recruitment drive, with Putin recently calling on reservists to complete military training, according to independent outlet Verstka.
In addition to recruits, Ukraine needs Western aid as it faces ‘perilous’ period
In addition to more recruits, Ukraine desperately needs support from Western allies to sustain its war efforts as it approaches “its most perilous period,” according to Politico opinion editor Jamie Dettmer — but efforts to supply aid to Kyiv are losing momentum. Washington’s $60 billion aid package is currently stalled in Congress, with one Ukrainian opposition lawmaker saying it would bring “scary” prospects for Ukraine if the budget did not pass. The European Union is still undecided about whether to seize billions in frozen Russian assets — or their profits — to buy arms for Ukraine. “As Ukrainians regularly stress, the weapons that have arrived are enough for the country to hang on — but nowhere near enough for it to win the war,” Dettmer wrote.
