Ecstasy turned to agony twice last week for the New York Knicks.
First, Jalen Brunson notched a near-record-setting 61 points, only to lose in the waning moments of overtime to the San Antonio Spurs. He then hit the go-ahead layup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, only for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to hit the actual dagger with less than two seconds on the clock.
Now to avoid a three-game skid and possibly jeopardizing their NBA odds of homecourt advantage in the first round, they’ll have to defeat their longtime nemesis, the Miami Heat.
The Heat are riding high after a pair of comfortable wins against outmatched opponents and will also be fielding the healthiest version of their roster in weeks on Tuesday, April 2.
My NBA picks and predictions for Knicks vs. Heat examine the key differences that set apart these otherwise similar teams.
Knicks vs Heat predictions
My best bet: Knicks moneyline (+124 at FanDuel)
These teams are not all that dissimilar from one another. Both the Miami Heat and the New York Knicks make their bones as physical defensive teams that strive to win the possession battle on offense.
The key differences that tip things in the balance of New York to me are twofold. The Knicks want to take a lot of threes and that’s exactly what the Heat defense concedes, whereas the Heat want to score inside the paint where the Knicks defense is at its best.
That, and the fact that, at least in the regular season, Jalen Brunson is proving to have more night-to-night impact than anyone on Heat.
While Jimmy Butler can still take over a game, he’s done it less frequently this season than in any since his early tenure with the Chicago Bulls. Whether Jimmy is merely saving it for the playoffs, or the miles are starting to catch up, is anyone's guess, but there is no question who is helping his team win games more this season between the two.
Furthermore, Brunson can score at all three levels, whereas, while Butler will take the occasional three, he’s much more focused on scoring inside and drawing fouls. Like the Heat themselves, the Knicks are a low-foul team, which somewhat mitigates that tactic.
The Heat, even at full playoff-level intensity, didn’t find a way to slow down Brunson last postseason. Unlike so many small guards in the past, the Heat couldn’t push Jalen around or knock him out of rhythm.
The Knicks are also much better closers than the Heat. New York is 38-3 when leading games entering the fourth quarter. It also has a stellar 19.6 net rating in clutch situations this season because Brunson is so good at creating quality shots against a set defense.
The Heat are famous for their playoff heroics, but they have been one of the worst teams in the Association late in games this year. Miami has the second-worst fourth-quarter net rating in the NBA, and its ghastly -15.9 net rating in the clutch is fourth from worst.
These teams are fairly evenly matched, as this spread indicates. But even accounting for their two most recent losses, the Knicks have a much more reliable formula to win close games like this one projects to be.
Knicks vs Heat same-game parlay
Knicks moneyline
Donte DiVincenzo Over 3.5 threes
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 7.5 points
Unlike some teams that make the tradeoff of allowing threes to wall off the paint, Miami doesn’t do a good job of dictating which shots opponents take from the perimeter.
Not only do opponents take a ton of above-the-break threes, they also take a huge portion of shots from the corners, which are some of the most analytically friendly shots available.
Donte DiVincenzo has been the Knicks' most reliable outside shooter, and he’s hit four or more threes in five of his last six games. The Heat's defensive tendencies make him a strong bet to do so again on Tuesday.
Isaiah Hartenstein, for his part, has shown serious growth as a scorer over the past two months.
Hartenstein is a good playmaker for his position, so often players guarding him are scanning all the off-ball action to keep an eye on potential cutters. While he’s still most comfortable taking his patented 10-foot floater, he’s also taken to opportunistically turning and driving against opposing bigs that play him too passively in these situations.
Hartenstein’s averaging 11.7 points per game over his last 10 and has had eight or more in five of his last seven.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Knicks vs Heat odds and trends
Knicks vs Heat live odds
Knicks vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: New York +2.5 | Miami -2.5
- Moneyline: New York +120 | Miami -150
- Over/Under: Over 206.5 | Under 206.5
Knicks vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- Most sportsbooks opened with the Heat as -2.5 favorites over New York.
- Miami is one of the NBA’s worst home teams against the spread, covering in just 14 of their 36 games.
- Tuesday’s total opened at 206.5 and has seen a slight bump to 207.5.
- Both teams have trended toward the Under in games played on a single day of rest, with it going 27-20 for New York and 29-18 for Miami.
Knicks vs Heat trend
Miami is 14-22 ATS at home this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Heat.
Knicks vs Heat game info
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, April 2, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Sun, MSG |
Not intended for use in MA.
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