Stock Market News for Monday, April 15, 2024: Dow Fell

Stocks were mostly lower in early afternoon trading as markets digested the latest retail sales data and reacted to conflict in the Middle East.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up just 29 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 was down 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.5%.

The S&P 500 was up nearly 0.9% at its high Monday. If it closes lower, it would mark its largest blown gain since July, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The U.S. Census Bureau said retail sales rose 0.7% on a monthly basis in March. February’s figures were also revised higher. The report was the latest economic data that could push back potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

“All in all, it was a very strong report although the fact that Easter fell in March this year likely contributed to the gains,” the analysts at Bespoke Investment Group write.

The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.637%, its highest level since November. The 10-year peaked around 5% in late October, but retreated as traders increasingly bet that the Federal Reserve was ready for a pivot.

Though the central bank hasn’t raised interest rates since the summer, last week’s hot consumer price index poured cold water on hopes for cuts starting in May or June. Fed-funds futures now see a 52.4% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee keeps rates steady through its July meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That’s up from 30.4% a week ago.

“If the S&P 500 is going to avoid its first three-week losing streak since last September, investors will need to move past concerns that rate cuts will be delayed because of sticky inflation,” writes Chris Larkin, managing director, trading and investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. “In the near-term, that could come down to the tone set by the first full week of earnings season, but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a wild card.”

Traders are also paying close attention after Iran attacked Israel with drone and missile strikes over the weekend. Reports of an imminent attack sent stocks falling on Friday.