RADIO
The 2024 fantasy baseball season has been rife with starting pitcher injuries. Whether it be the dreaded elbow inflammation, latissimus strains, or other injuries, it has started to feel like a weekly (if not more often) announcement that a big-name starting pitcher will be out for months.
Losses like Spencer Strider and Shane Bieber are devastating to fantasy managers and the baseball community as a whole, but these injuries also open up opportunities for lesser-known arms. Some of these pitchers are up-and-coming prospects getting an earlier cup of coffee than they might otherwise have received. Others are more established guys who may get a chance in the starting rotation when originally projected for a bullpen or minor league role.
While many surprising names have found themselves in the top-50 pitchers to start 2024, it is prudent for fantasy managers to evaluate these guys beyond their surface-level performances. Identifying pitchers with under-the-hood pitch mechanic changes, velocity increases, and other improvements should help determine which pitchers are worth a long-term roster spot. Other pitchers who may have gotten "lucky" with easy early-season opponents may be candidates for a trade or outright drop for more valuable free agents. Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) evaluates these early surprises to determine who are the ideal candidates for long-term success.
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Setup for Fantasy Success
These arms have identifiable mechanics and/or velocity changes that point to the potential for long-term success. Continue to roster these pitchers, or target them in a trade if available.
Ronel Blanco - Houston Astros
Blanco entered 2024 at the age of 30, having never logged a season with more than 52 innings pitched in his career. Most of his pitching to this point had been in the minor leagues. But with multiple Houston rotation injuries, he got a shot a few weeks ago. He smashed through the metaphorical wall like the Kool-Aid man (oh yeahhhh), throwing a no-hitter against Toronto to start April and capturing baseball fans' attention. He followed that up with a one-hit, no-run outing against the Rangers in his next start.
He also has a rather obvious change to his arsenal that may portend ongoing success. So far in 2024, Blanco is throwing his changeup 30.2% of the time, increased dramatically from 2023 in which he threw that pitch just 9.0% of the time. Previously a slider-first pitcher (48.6% of pitches in 2023), Blanco is now working with a one-two punch of fastball-changeup. Although it is early, both of these pitches are holding a PutAway% above 25%, solid numbers for a one-two punch in which both pitches work symbiotically to fool hitters.
Ronel Blanco, K'ing the Side with Changeups. pic.twitter.com/AQ8bLI25Dq
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 2, 2024
There will be concerns about Blanco -- eventually multiple bigger names will be eligible for return to the Astros rotation like Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez. It is possible with more film that hitters get wise to his new pitching repertoire. Despite those caveats, managers should jump on a pitcher with a revamped arsenal like this who has already fooled multiple solid teams with these pitches. Roster Blanco in all formats.
Reid Detmers - Los Angeles Angels
Admittedly, one could say Detmers had already arrived and was a known fantasy commodity. However, with a 4.48 ERA in 2023, there was significant room for improvement beyond the strikeouts he was already contributing. There will be regression with an unsustainable 40.6% K% and .258 BABIP so far in 2024, but there is also optimism for sustained success with a reworked pitching repertoire.
The first thing that jumps out about Detmers overall is his ability to locate his pitches in 2024. Detmers' CSW% in 2024 is an eye-popping 33.2%, up from 27.4% in 2023. While his control has remained about the same so far in terms of BB%, that meteoric K% mentioned above seems primarily driven by a better ability to locate pitches and a revamped one-two punch in pitch selection.
Under the hood, last year Detmers threw primarily a "vertical" slider moving at an average of 89 mph with only 1.3 inches of horizontal movement. He rarely mixed in a sweeper, moving at 83 mph with 8.0 inches of horizontal movement. Detmers has seemingly combined those two pitches, now relying on an 86 mph slider with 3.5 inches of horizontal break. He is sporting a 36.7% Whiff% on that slider so far in 2024 compared to the slider and sweeper in 2023 at 33.8% and 26.7%, respectively.
Even more astounding is what this, coupled with better control, has done to his fastball. So far in 2024, Detmers' fastball K% is 39.4%, increased dramatically from 21.2% in 2023 when he was "just" a fastball pitcher. Roster Detmers for the known strikeout upside, with the possible top-50 finish hinging on his sustained ability to locate. So far, so good.
Paul Blackburn - Oakland Athletics
They say happiness is expectations versus reality. That is key to assessing Blackburn, and embodies the reasons why he made the cut to this upper portion of the list. Through three starts, Blackburn maintains the profile of years gone by -- low strikeout upside, pitching for a lame-duck team, but with the ability to spot his pitches and stabilize ratios.
And the purpose of this article is to identify (relatively) strong starts that are likely to continue their current trend. While his strikeout upside remains limited, there is reason to believe Blackburn's ability to control ratios and minimize damage is stronger than ever.
Blackburn has done a complete about-face in terms of pitch selection. In 2023, he threw a 92 mph sinking fastball 24.0% of the time and his 85 mph changeup just 11.2% of the time. His cutter has remained the constant -- 20.4% and 21.3% of pitches in 2023 and 2024, respectively -- but he is now leading his pitch selection with the changeup at 23.2% of the time.
In turn, this is letting him use his cutter as more of a finishing move, likely due to a much greater velocity differential between cutter-changeup than cutter-sinker. His cutter Whiff% has increased from 15.9% in 2023 to 22.2% in 2024. More impressive, that pitch is carrying an eye-popping 37.5% PutAway% in 2024 compared just 7.0% in 2023. Blackburn's highest Whiff% of any pitch in 2023 was 25.7% for his cutter. This repertoire change has also strengthened his curveball, sporting a nasty 41.7% Whiff% in 2024 compared to 24.5% in 2023.
Paul Blackburn, Nasty Curveballs...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/vrolctBvAo
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 13, 2024
Blackburn is unlikely to eclipse double-digit wins on an A's club that is projected for 60-70 overall wins. His K% remains low at 15.5% so far this year. However, he has under-the-hood changes and strong numbers to start the year that can make him a useful stabilizer of ratios for the right fantasy squad. Managers should consider their deficits and consider adding Blackburn if in need of a stabilizing force for their rotation.
Max Meyer - Miami Marlins
Speaking of elbow injuries, Meyer returned in 2024 after missing all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. His performance and mechanics are discussed more here, but managers need to bear in mind that Meyer may be on a short leash (or more aptly, a short yo-yo) back and forth between the minors for load management in a young pitcher with injury history. That being said, Meyer's sub-50% ownership and start to the year with solid outings against the Angels, Cardinals, and Braves make him an enticing add, especially for those with an NA roster spot.
Meyer leads with an 89 mph slider that is counterbalanced by a 95 mph four-seam fastball that runs in on right-handed batters. This combination of laterality and speed has worked well for Meyer throughout his minor league career. Although, as expected, his K% has come down with each step up in the minors and now MLB, though he still has strong strikeout potential with those pitches.
So far this year, that primary slider is holding a great 45.6% Whiff%, the fastball a 25.0% Whiff%. These fireballs also allow for the occasional changeup, which has clocked in with a 40.0% Whiff% in 2024. These have coalesced into an impressive 31.2% CSW%, good for a top-20 ranking in this stat so far this year.
Max Meyer's Nasty Sliders. 😨
2Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/HzywqAUiTe
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 1, 2024
Managers without an NA spot need to be actively checking for a return to MLB if Meyer remains on the waiver wire. When that inevitably happens, Meyer should be snatched up in all formats. His main limitations at this time are playing time and lack of a definitive third pitch, although that changeup may be the remedy for the latter issue. Meyer carries strikeout upside and a strong pitching repertoire which portend success once he is given a full leash of opportunity.
Coming Back to Earth
Despite some great performances so far, these arms lack a specific change or other factor as a reason for sustained success. Move them in a sell-high trade, or at least be on the lookout for a possible downturn in performance to come.
Ranger Suarez - Philadelphia Phillies
If there was a "middle of the road" category on this list, Suarez would lead that category. That is because he has shown average to above-average performance throughout his career, making for a higher floor than some others in this article, but this is counterbalanced by overperformance to start 2024. One might fairly argue that Suarez should be owner over Blackburn or Meyer, but this article is about predicting future performance based on 2024 so far.
In his three starts this year, Suarez has given up three earned runs to the Braves, two to the Nationals, and none most recently to the Pirates. Although the Pirates outing is enticing, two runs to the Nationals and getting smacked around a bit by the Braves are more telling.
Under the hood, Suarez is carrying a 62.5% GB% in 2024, much higher than his career average of 54.2% as a sinker-forward pitcher. He is throwing his sinker a bit more frequently this year, 38.5% in 2024 compared to 28.0% in 2023, which may contribute to that GB%.
However, the concerns are an unsustainable 30.2% K% (21.6% career average) and 4.8% BB% (8.9% career average) leading to a .184 BABIP that is bound for significant negative regression. Suarez is a worth holding in 12-team or deeper leagues, but managers in shallow leagues need to be aware of the forthcoming regression when he faces good lineups.
Brady Singer - Kansas City Royals
In his fifth season in MLB, all with the Royals, Singer feels like a known commodity. If managers find him on the waiver wire when in need of a streaming pitcher, he often is the top choice. However, pitching for the Royals and the lack of a dominant pitch or combination of pitches has limited him from being more than average at any point in his career. Singer came out of the gate hot in 2024 with a 10-strikeout shutout against the Twins. He has followed that with a one-run outing against the lowly White Sox and, most recently, a solid one-run showing against the Astros.
In 2023, Singer relied heavily on his sinking fastball, which averages 92 mph. He threw this pitch more than 50% of the time, with his 84 mph slider making up 42.1% of his pitches in 2023. This one-two punch of somewhat similar pitches can allow hitters to sit on a pitch. So far in 2024, he is changing his fastball morphology a bit, now throwing a traditional four-seam fastball 19.1% of the time.
Perhaps this will lead to a bit more success, but his "luck" so far is more concerning. A .182 BABIP and 100% (!) LOB% make regression to the Singer we know (and maybe love?) the most likely outcome. Managers in all but the deepest leagues should continue to use Singer as a relatively reliable streaming arm, but a leap to a truly valuable season-long arm seems unlikely.
Seth Lugo - Kansas City Royals
Ah, Seth Lugo. A name well-known to managers who avidly scour the waiver wire. With the Mets, he spent many a season in the running for both starting and interim closing duties. In San Diego, new hope arose for a long-term starting gig backed by a strong lineup.
In 2024, he finds himself on the mercurial Royals, who have significant talent but are projected for less than 80 wins on the year. Lugo has already pitched four times this year without giving up more than two earned runs in a single outing. Two of these have been the against the White Sox, a bottom-five offense by most numbers so far in 2024. The other two have been a shutout outing against the solid Twins and a two-run outing against the Astros.
Lugo is a serviceable starting pitcher, particularly as a streaming arm against weak opponents or as an SP4/5 in 12-team and deeper leagues. However, his ceiling is capped by limited strikeout potential; he has yet to log more than four strikeouts in an outing this year and carries a pedestrian 24.0% K% despite much of his career being in the bullpen.
Furthermore, pitching for the Royals is unlikely to lead to more than 10 wins or so. His primary four-seam fastball is down about 1 mph on average so far in 2024 compared to 2023. Lugo is unlikely to rise to consistent SP3 level and his ceiling profiles more as a streamer than a consistent contributor.
Javier Assad - Chicago Cubs
Assad came out of the gate hot in 2024 with a four-hit, no-run outing against the Rockies (away from Coors Field) to start the season. He followed this up with decent outings against the Padres and Mariners, leading to some excitement as a bit of a post-draft sleeper, perhaps readily available as a free agent.
Unfortunately, not much as changed for Assad. He continues with the same, near-even mix of sinker, cutter, and four-seam fastball, none of which generated a Whiff% above 20% in 2023. In 2024, he has an unsustainable BABIP of .237 backed by a frightening 91.5% LOB%. The setup is there for upcoming blowups. His current K% is 28.1%, well above his career mark of 20.9%. Without a change to support his early-season success, chances are high that Assad ends the season back where he started -- on the waiver wire.
Tyler Anderson - Los Angeles Angels
How many pitchers can be expected to make significant gains at the age of 34? Not many, and Anderson does not seem likely to buck that trend. Although he is throwing more of his best put-out pitch, his changeup, he continues to lead with a sub-90 mph fastball with a lowly 19.3% Whiff% in 2023. This has not been any better in 2024, only reaching a 15.5% Whiff% so far. His career K% is a basement-dwelling 20.0%, and in 2024 so far, this has been even worse at 16.9%. Pitching for the Angels, win upside is minimal. Anderson appears to be the same pitcher he has always been -- barely even on the streaming radar.
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