Senate Democrats plot $79M advertising onslaught to hold on in November

Senate Democrats’ campaign arm is launching a $79 million advertising plan that's aimed at holding onto the majority this fall — alongside spending by a key party super PAC and individual candidates — according to details first shared with POLITICO.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s spending blueprint includes TV, radio and digital advertising in nine states and comes on the heels of a $239 million spending plan from the super PAC, Senate Majority. Together the two entities will pour in more than $300 million in a bid to preserve the party’s 51-seat majority, which is up for grabs this fall with tough Senate races across the map.

The committee’s plans include coordinated ad buys with candidates as well as separate radio, TV and digital ad purchases that are known as independent expenditures. Christie Roberts, executive director of the DSCC, said the committee's strategy "enables the DSCC to communicate with voters in the most effective way and ensures we protect Democrats' Senate majority.”

“Senate Republicans’ roster of unvetted, unpopular candidates bring disqualifying personal flaws and toxic policy positions to their races — when general election voters learn about them, they’ll see why they should be nowhere near the U.S. Senate,” Roberts said.

The campaign arm's vast investments in the works, more than double the size of the party’s initial spending plan last cycle, reflects the up-for-grabs status of several Senate races and points to even more spending later this year. After the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) almost certainly ceded a seat to the GOP, Democrats' easiest path to holding the Senate is making sure all of their other incumbents win reelection — including in the red states of Montana and Ohio as well as five battleground seats.

That’s going to require lots of money, lots of ads and a willingness to try different political tactics.

The DSCC’s biggest new television advertisements are in a trio of presidential swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The DSCC will spend more than $11 million to try to keep Michigan’s open seat, $10 million to defend Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin and $8 million aiding Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania.

All three states will be tough, with Baldwin and Casey facing wealthy GOP recruits Eric Hovde and Dave McCormick and Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) likely to face former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), though that state's Republican primary is ongoing.

In addition, the DSCC is reserving $2 million in radio ads in Montana, where Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) likely faces the toughest Senate race in the country. The DSCC is also planning seven-figure digital advertisements in Montana, Wisconsin, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Michigan as well as against its top two GOP targets: Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida.

Democrats’ strategy reflects the changing face of political campaigns: Party committees are increasingly spending on voter turnout and coordinated ad buys with candidates in order to pay better rates. Particularly in competitive presidential states, ad inventory will only get more expensive as Election Day approaches.

Some of the $79 million figure will go toward those coordinated ad buys, according to a DSCC aide.

Separately, super PACs like the Democratic Senate Majority PAC and Republican Senate Leadership Fund often pour in huge sums for television ads now which far outweigh the party committees; both groups have already placed massive ad reservations in Ohio, Montana, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Some of the DSCC’s ad buys will cover periods not included in Senate Majority PAC’s reservations.

But the best advertising rates go to candidates themselves, and Republicans and Democrats alike have announced huge fundraising sums for the first quarter of this year. All told, this year’s battle for the Senate is shaping up to be the most expensive one ever, and the DSCC aide said the party may spend more money and expand its advertising into additional states as the battle for the chamber shakes out.